Monthly political analysis on nations in
economic or political transition

The Arab Awakening
"To Democratise is to Islamicize"
This month we lead with the above insight from Dmitri Tremin, Director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, on the events in the Arab Awakening, which regrettably also reflects our view. This is based on the fact that for eight years we have been producing monthly analytical reports on SYRIA. This March 1st issue is no.97.
We have reports on all of the following countries involved in the 'Arab Awakening': Syria, Libya, Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Iraq - and Iran - although the latter is neither Arab, nor in revolt, but always things are happening there!
We also take a look at 'The Arab League' in the context of its role and qualifications for democratising Syria. We analyse the credentials for this of the League's members - sadly, it is apparent that it's a poor joke.

'Newnations' are out of step it seems, with much of the western media and the foreign ministers of the US, France and UK, who call for al Assad to resign and stand down as his country’s president. We ask in favour of whom?
It's a fair question isn’t it: On which Arab country should a made-over Syria model itself?
We quote the BBC's excellent "Guide to the Syrian Opposition," showing that there are at least four distinct rebel groups with leaderships who cannot agree on uniting, or on anything much at all. This, even after the rather embarrassing conference in Tunisia, where 'statespersons' declaimed, and condemned, demonstrating their musclebound impotence.
Our take is that this is a full-on civil war, nothing less - but still not in every part of the country. The capital Damascus, apart from certain suburbs appears to be pro-Assad. The largest city, Aleppo, certainly.
The powers have taken sides, we suspect, because for the US; UK; France; Turkey, it's a great opportunity to stick it to Iran, and to perhaps separate them from their only ally. How embarrassing it must be to find that they and al Qaeda are on the same side and share the same objective, to overthrow this secular government and restore the only other option: Sunni domination.
There is a lot to cover with the MENA states, and perhaps it isn't everybody's area of interest. So, our OVERVIEW this month allows for readers who want to follow the Russian election, due on Sunday next, 4th March, to go directly to Russia, as well as followers of events in:
Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, North Korea, Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkmenistan, Bosnia, Serbia & Hungary.
We decided editorially years ago, that apart from Romania and Bulgaria, nations accepted into the EU had achieved the democracy we had hoped for them. We would no longer consider them to be 'in transition'…but then Hungary’s bad behaviour demanded some attention.


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