Monthly political analysis on nations in
 economic or political transition

Al QAIDA, AQIM & AQAP in the wake of ‘THE ARAB SPRING’

The excitement - and surprise at the Arab and North African political upheavals have led many to believe that Al Qaida, having lost its inspirational leader, had become irrelevant, following the unfolding events in Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, etc.

It can be seen there in the affected nations, that Islamic politicians are steadily achieving objectives in gaining power, whilst Islamic terror is losing influence in the places in which they have operated.

But Al Qaida is a resilient beast and has already spawned two significant offshoots: Al Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and Al Qaida in the Arabic Peninsula (AQAP). It can be seen, from the examples of ‘the underpants bomber,’ trained and his operation launched from the Yemen, followed then by the airfreighted explosive disguised as Copy toner cartridges - intended for detonation in the US, that AQAP have the same ambitions to impact the western world, as did Al Qaida on 9/11.

Those two failed terrorist acts were neutralised by a combination of luck and good security work, but it clearly revealed the potential reach and international ambitions of this spin-off from Osama bin Laden’s firstborn. Whilst the Arab Spring seems to demonstrate that working within the new democratic political system is successful for Islamist politicians, nevertheless as we explain, the terror organisations have established themselves, enjoying the vast open spaces of the Sahel to the south of the predominantly Arab states of the Mediterranean littoral. a situation described in this essay by Alessandro Bruno, the noted analyst and specialist in the region.

AQAP located in the almost ungovernable wastes of Yemen, has found a home in what is effectively a failed state, but so placed as to have the capability of making great mischief in the Red Sea and Arabian peninsula.

Our report looks in some depth at this dangerous scene and how and where these terror groups are operating and funding themselves.




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Send this newsletter to a friend Bulletin, 18 January 2012| New Nations - a not for profit company
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