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ANALYSIS OF THE BREXIT VOTE;
TRUMP'S CHOSEN TARGET:
IRAN; WORLD DEMOCRACY
REFERENDUM VOTE - THE WHO'S AND THE WHY'S
UK politics is now almost entirely dominated by BREXIT and it is
likely to remain that way for all of the two years of negotiations shortly
to commence, and for whatever follows. This is also of vital interest
to the remaining 27 EU nations, in several of which the populist
nationalism exhibited within the UK, is echoed by similar waves of
reaction, even amongst EU founder members. The Netherlands and
France are both ‘looking down the barrel’ at their own nationalist
movements with their loaded populist propaganda, in upcoming elections.
Nearly nine months on from the June 23rd 2016 UK Referendum, the shock
result, certainly amongst the frustrated ‘Remainers,’ continues to produce
national news – most recently of a second former UK prime minister John
Major, adding his warning dissenting voice, to that of Tony Blair, who
spoke out vowing to campaign against Brexit, earlier in the month. Then
there is the apparent cabal of US big-money connections, that helped to
plot the Brexit outcome - of every twist and turn of referendum- related
events. Now the British Parliament is debating giving authority to
formally commence ‘Leaving’ negotiations, required from them, by decision
of the Supreme Court, rather than being decided by the Executive, led by
Prime Minister Theresa May, as she had preferred. Critically, the question
of the moment is whether modifying amendments put forward by the House of
Lords will be accepted by the House of Commons, which will be known within
a few days.
Scotland, that voted heavily to Remain is not reconciled and is
contemplating a new Independence referendum, hoping to Remain in Europe,
notwithstanding the rest of the UK. That would end the 400 years old Act
of Union and dissolve the United Kingdom.
Apart from such far-reaching political implications, there is an urgent
‘need to know,’ particularly by the 48% that voted “Remain”, as to how did
this outcome ever get to happen? For many of them, Brexit potentially
spells disaster for the economy, and runs against the flow of history.
Sara Bielecki has waded into the mass of data that have been
generated on this topic by international Academia and takes a look at ‘the
Who’s’ and ‘the Why’s’ of the end result. A key indication is that the
‘Leave’ propaganda churned out by the tabloid press, succeeded in in its
objective of frightening a sufficient number of voters, who had little
personal experience of immigrants, as the pattern and place of voting
clearly shows. Nearly all the big cities of Britain having the highest
concentrations of immigrants, voted Remain.
We have long specialised in events in the Middle- East, North
Africa and Western Asia. During the Trump presidential campaign, he made
it clear that he believed that the US was being ‘disrespected’ and that
this was going to change. The world is aware of the massive military power
concentrated by the USA - and made the connection.
In this issue, in the belief that Donald Trump has IRAN in his
sights, Alessandro Bruno’s piece:- “Trump’s Chosen Target: IRAN”
analyses the implications and flags up fears that the US may be about to
enter another middle-east quagmire.
Our World Democracy Audit is updated in this issue with new data
from Transparency International’s recently published “International
Corruption Perceptions Index for 2016”. We show TI’s comprehensive review
of: Corruption in the Americas; Asia Pacific; Europe & Central Asia;
Middle & North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. Also our own conclusions and
how these results amend our World Democracy rankings (for those 154
nations with a minimum one million population). We publish the complete
new Democracy Tables with links from each nation listed, which offer a
surprisingly large cache of Agency reports and relevant information on
each of them.
Clive Lindley - Publisher/Editor
Trina Middlecote - Data Management
The Brexit Vote: "The Who's and the Why's"
The Brexit result of last summer shook
the political establishment to the core and has had a seismic effect on the
state of Britain, and indeed the continent of Europe. Broadly, 52% of people
in the UK voted to leave, so everyone in the country should know someone who
voted for our departure from the European Union. Yet apparently, Remainers
and Brexiteers individually seem to know very few of those who voted the
opposite way to themselves - perhaps accounting for the shock on both sides,
when the country decided to leave.
A psephological analysis is clearly needed to fathom these deep divisions,
to map out these two camps, and to ascertain the factors at work and their
complex interplay. Numerous academic groups from not only British, but
European and other universities, have focused on different aspects of what
amounted to an electoral phenomenon. Age, wage and educational levels are
all indicators which can be measured and have been examined. Harder to
quantify but equally important, are more abstract indicators, based on value
systems and emotions, which do not dictate votes in a logical fashion.
Immigration: The Shadow Not the Reality
The fact that voters expressing fears about immigration often but not
always, tended to reside in areas with low immigration, would indicate that
scaremongering tactics used by the Leave campaign and notably UKIP, rather
than personal experience, were highly successful in influencing voters,
particularly when set beside the fact that not only in London, but most of
Britain’s biggest cities where the strongest immigrant concentrations are to
be found, did NOT vote to Leave, indeed several to Remain by substantial
Trump's Chosen Target: Iran
Will Trump Drag the USA into
Another Middle East Quagmire?
During his presidential campaign, Trump continuously emphasised his view
that the rest of the World were making fools of the USA. He showed every
sign that if he achieved power, he would use the US’s formidable military
strength to humiliate some target nation, demonstrating to the world the
mighty muscle that the US possesses. The will is there. The only question is
Russia has an equivalence of nuclear weaponry with the US and anyway, there
are other plans for Russia. China is another highly capable nuclear power,
but apart from that, they own an enormous chunk of the US’ national debt and
have a vast military machine themselves.
So the middle- east?.... [continues...]
World Audit Democracy Rankings Amended
New Corruption Perceptions Index
from Transparency International
Our data partners Transparency International, have in late January 2017
issued their most recent Corruption Perceptions Index enabling World Audit
to amend its 2017 World Democracy data here in this issue. The link below
gives the updated four divisions listing those 154 nations with a minimum
one million population that World Audit monitors. These tables now show the
amended Corruption rankings and the revised overall World Democracy rankings
Summary of Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index 2016
Americas: From the Panama Papers in April to the record US$3.5
billion Odebrecht settlement in Brazil in December, 2016 was a good year in
the fight against corruption in the Americas. But there is still a long way
Read more... [continues...]