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FEBRUARY 2015 REPORTS
IRAN: Towards a Nuclear Deal,
Finally?; EGYPT: Four years after Tahrir Square, Egypt's Democratic Hopes are Broken;
TURKEY: Erdogan Stamps his Authority on the Nation.
Iran: Towards a Nuclear
Deal, Finally?
As Saudi Arabia adjusts to the loss of its nonagerian King
Abdullah and the succession of the former Crown Prince his 79 year old
half-brother, now King Salman, we look at their regional competitor Iran, which
has continued to make inroads in the proxy wars of the neighbourhood, not least
against the IS.
We also consider the matter of the eventual succession in Iran to the elderly
Ayatollah Khamenai, who last year developed prostrate cancer, but is still
active in the nation’s affairs. Whatever else, where Saudi successor monarchs
are drawn from the senior brothers of each king, it looks as though the
management of the longstanding armed peace, between Saudi and Iran will remain
the province of Sunni and Shia old men. Since ultimate power in Saudi rests with
a not dissimilar age-group to each royal incumbent, until ‘the fund’ of brothers
‘runs out,’ is matched in these terms by Iran’s expectations of elderly scholars
sufficiently distinguished in religious affairs to achieve Ayatollah ranking,
and hopefully, sufficiently of this world to deal wisely with the nation’s
elected ministers.
So an update on Iranian internal and external affairs follows, where nuclear
negotiations are weighed; the economy; the relations with Afghanistan where they
have become a significant player; and the regional wars in Syria Iraq and Yemen
where they are making their presence felt in competition with the rival regional
power of Saudi Arabia. [...]
Egypt: Four years
after Tahrir Square, Egypt's Democratic Hopes are Broken
The Tahrir ‘Revolution’ of
January 2011 remains incomplete. It may appear as if the situation has settled
under the presidency of Gen. al-Sisi but a new opposition has emerged from the
rubble of the former Mubarak regime and from the short lived leadership of the
Muslim Brotherhood. The 4th anniversary of the Tahrir Square revolt that
appeared to serve as the launchpad of an Egyptian and Arab political renewal has
revealed that there are still many cracks in the foundation that need to be
addressed. At least 15 people were killed in clashes throughout Egypt, and many
more injured, during the clashes that erupted in the streets of Egypt on the
anniversary of a Revolution that has made a full circle from military
dictatorship to ‘Brotherhood’ and back to the military. The deaths occurred in
Cairo, as well as Beheira, Matariya, Ain Shams, Menoufia and Alexandria
suggesting that the unrest and the tensions continue to be felt throughout the
country. The media, effectively controlled by the President Al-Sisi’s
government, has reported that the clashes involved the army and the Muslim
Brotherhood – the supporters of jailed President Morsi - however, this is rather
a misrepresentation of the fact that there are many groups, and based on some of
the victims’ identities some include very secular left wing parties that had
clashed with the Brotherhood as well as the Mubarak regime, involved in the
protests. [...]
Turkey: Erdogan
Stamps his Authority on the Nation
Turkey has seen in the New Year
with Reccep Tayyip Erdogan now as its President. The former Prime Minister and
head of the ruling AKP party became President last year having reached the
maximum three terms as Prime Minister. Many heralded this as the moment when
previous glimpses of authoritarianism, witnessed notably in his attitude to
freedom of speech, to the country's constitutional settlement and to opposition
movements, came into plain sight. Indeed, the mercurial populist hopes to see
the presidency, largely decorative until this point, assume the powers he wishes
it to exercise during his tenure through actual changes to the constitution.
[...]
Clive Lindley
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SPECIAL REPORT
THE RISE
OF SOUTH AMERICA
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