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GEOPOLITICAL
OVERVIEW
ON MARCH 1ST 2010
Where is the smack of firm Government?
The G8 have met. Treasury and Government financial officers meet all the time.
Yet no deal is in place, nor it seems, is even on the horizon. The UK is on the
eve of an election, which will force the government to detail their plans and
achievements. The banks would prefer to carry on as usual, but if there has to
be a Taxpayer guarantee they would prefer an insurance fund for distressed
banks, to which (they say) they would all contribute. The response to that of
course, is that in the USA the super- insurance fund AIG set up for this same
purpose, had to be rescued to the tune of untold billions –it was the single
most expensive of the bale-outs.
The other mainstream argument from people other than bankers, is to separate out
the functions of banking into Main Street Banking, holding current and savings
accounts for non-financial businesses and ordinary individuals. These would be
regulated to see their funds were not available for the banks shareholders and
managers to bet, as now, on the high risk gambles of the financial investment
world. Such banks, already established, could sell off their Financial
Investment divisions, which then would not be licensed to take deposits, but
could operate in all spheres of financial speculation and adventuring, funded by
their shareholders and the market place, who would take both the reward and the
risk. ‘Breaking up’ the banks is what this is called. Unsurprisingly, the banks
don’t want it and it appears that some governments are not prepared to govern,
in this respect. As it is now, the banks risk their depositors funds in
making their bets. When they prosper, the reward goes in bonuses and dividends
to their executives and shareholders, not to the owners of the capital, the
deposit holders that fund them. This is the ludicrous equivalent of risk – but
no reward!
Governments in all countries deal with and to some extent regulate all their
many different industries. The financial industry has discovered or is assessing
that it is more powerful than some governments. We will learn over the coming
months which ones, but we suspect Germany will not be amongst them. The US is in
the balance. So is France. The UK growls, barks, but so far appears to have no
bite.
Tea, Sympathy - and Bile
It is extraordinary how much bile China can expend on the septuagenarian Dalai
Lama to the extent that Beijing creates a minor diplomatic incident when, as in
mid-February, a western leader receives him for tea and sympathy, (President
Obama on February 18th). Leaders of democracies now receive him almost as a
badge of honour.
It is not about offering financial or political aid for his cause, because that
is not an international matter. He seeks cultural and religious autonomy
within the Chinese empire, (not ’independence’, as Beijing systematically
misinforms its vast public - and such outsiders as are more superficially
informed). He and his government in exile know full well that
independence is not obtainable - it’s not even on the table.
But if by the time the Dalai Lama – a reasonable man, meets his end, no
acceptable settlement has come about, his frustrated people without his
restraining influence may be tempted to go the violent route. The world has for
several years borne the brunt of angry Moslems. Nobody wants to see a cause to
unite angry Buddhists. The last time that happened was under a certain gentleman
named Genghis Khan!
The exiled Tibetans seek cultural and religious autonomy for an elected Tibetan
regional government, leaving to Beijing such matters as defence, diplomacy, and
the areas of governance appropriate to a nation state. The fact that they are
very clear about this does not stop the Chinese state-controlled media
aggressively accusing the Dalai Lama of seeking to ‘break up the empire,’ and
snarling at those who meet him. Why then are western leaders still glad to
receive him, despite the fact that it obviously irritates Beijing? He is
one of those three or four world-class individuals who is worthy of respect and
admiration, irrespective of his country. He is also undoubtedly ‘father of his
nation’ when so few anywhere can any longer aspire to such a title. The
simple fact that our elected leaders are publicly prepared to receive him,
illustrates what it is to live in a democracy. It speaks well of these leaders
that they will not be bullied on such an issue by a demonstrably undemocratic
state, whose protests and objections actually underline the differences between
national systems.
China does not do well with their hard-nosed attitude. It is obvious that
Tibetans are culturally different to the Chinese, a difference that would be
celebrated by a more confident state, as indeed earlier Chinese rulers have
done. There are also proven methods of giving local autonomy within the Chinese
empire, like the brilliant ‘one nation, two systems ‘of Deng Xiao Ping, which
brought Hong Kong and Macao back into the imperial fold, just as that is on
offer right now, to Taiwan. It would be an appropriate solution for Tibet. Why
should Taiwan be offered this level of autonomy and not Tibet? Could it just be
that the Taiwanese might be voting on the issue, but the Peoples Liberation Army
are already in occupation in Tibet?
The BAe Corruption case
The resolution in the courts of this discreditable affair, gives a clear
methodology for the future for non-American arms manufacturers. Delay and
resist the laws in your own country, make no plea on substantive issues, but
plead guilty in a US court to something equivalent to errors in book-keeping
(“those careless accountants”) having first negotiated a plea bargain to drop
the heavyweight charges. Agree to a sum substantially less than the profit made
in the illicit arms deals. Then hey, the fine can be regarded as just another
cost in the overall deal to add to the bribe, and the shareholders are
mollified. By so doing you remain on the tender list for future Pentagon
contracts and the equivalent back in your own country. And the future? Well you
now have a record for false book-keeping, so it would be no great surprise if it
happens again. But accounts’ ‘help’ isn’t what it was - be reasonable...
You can also then watch from a comfortable distance and admire the chutzpah
whilst the counter-party to the corruption, be it Saudi Arabia, Tanzania, South
Africa or wherever, successfully shrugs off any suggestion that any of their
politicians would illicitly trouser millions of dollars, for agreeing the deal
and the sale price. In the Saudi affair, the British government told their
citizens that they had been warned that there would be no further information
from the Saudis on terrorists, if the case continued. That is a very
curious threat when analysed! Meanwhile the Prince who made the
purchasing decisions, interviewed on British TV, cheerfully told the millions of
viewers that he had certainly taken all of what was his due, and of course, his
king, brothers and colleagues, knew about it, a full-on “what’s the problem,”
attitude. In South Africa, the accused never appeared in court, although his
bag-carrier on the same charges got a fifteen year stretch, whilst the accused
minister was elected to become the current president –and then as almost his
first act, promptly released his ‘financial advisor.’ We wonder if either
declared the substantial payment as income, or paid income tax on the ill-gotten
proceeds?
Mr Putin’s Puzzle
Given the election of Viktor Yanukovych to the presidency of
UKRAINE (as we
report), it must be foxing Mr Putin how this could possibly have come about
through of all things, a democratic election. Back in 2004,
RUSSIA ‘fixed
it’ for Yanukovich in it’s time-honoured, if discreditable way, only to see the
citizens of UKRAINE
repudiate the fraudulent vote and create what became known as the Orange
Revolution. This non-violent uprising of the people was funded, it might be
observed, by those oligarchs supporting the duo of recently defeated president
Yushchenko, and defeated Prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko. (Who else paid for the
free newspapers and all those orange tents; and fed ‘the loaves and the fishes’
to those scores of thousands camping out in the streets of central Kiev back in
2004)?
This time the oligarchs behind the new, fairly elected President Yanukovych,
came out in front. Those outsiders that fear that
UKRAINE will
now slip back into Moscow’s embrace can take comfort from recent history. Before
Putin’s time, there was a referendum in
UKRAINE which
turned down rejoining
RUSSIA, for a very simple reason. The political leadership of
independent UKRAINE
after 1991, whether pro-Russian or not, found themselves regarded as serious
politicians, running a nation state on the world stage, travelling in style,
meeting foreign statesmen, even making important decisions. Whereas, during the
long Soviet period, the Ukrainian government were like tame parish councillors,
rubber-stamping decisions already made in Moscow, where of course all the bribes
went. They had then and they have now their own powerful and rich Ukrainian
oligarchs, who know what legislation or government contracts they want - and
don’t need any more Russian competition than they already get.
RUSSIA protests new ‘encirclement’
We report in this month’s
RUSSIA their reaction to the newly announced US missile bases in
ROMANIA and
the Romanian reply. This is the ‘son of Missile Shield’ that was planned for the
Czech Republic and Poland, ostensibly to counter any Iranian missile capable of
reaching Europe, in the presumption they could get there and carry a nuclear
cargo. Of course Russians who have globes to hand, can see that their territory
is certainly threatened by a missile ship, as planned, stationed in Romanian
waters in the Black Sea. It is, from their point of view as any map will
confirm, a Cuba in reverse. It does seem otiose to do this in the name of
a potential Iranian threat, to protect European members of NATO. Has there been
any call from Europeans for protection against this ‘Iranian threat’? We don’t
think so. Common sense says that Israel is the place to locate
anti-Iranian missiles, if at any point the Iranians are able to go nuclear,
which is not yet. These European locations lack credibility as a project to
contain IRAN.
When George. W. Bush promoted his missile shield (Czech and Polish
bases) it was NOT a NATO enterprise but a US geostrategic one, a significant
difference. Despite the present talk of protecting ‘NATO allies’, we are
sceptical that NATO has ever officially discussed this Romanian Black Sea naval
base. Indeed the first that the ‘hosts’ Romania had heard of it was, as we
report, on a visit by US Vice- President Joe Biden, as recently as October of
2009. At the risk of stating the obvious, although anti-ballistic missiles sound
purely defensive, the whole point of a nuclear stand-off, as has existed between
Washington and Moscow for half a century of global peace, is that neither side
should be capable of checkmating the other. An effective anti-missile missile
amounts exactly to that, and were the positions reversed, the US wouldn’t accept
it for a moment (remember Cuba). Inevitably this could next lead to an arms race
which could suit military –industrial complexes very well – after all, that’s
what they do! The Romanian president says “Romania will not host a system
against RUSSIA…”
This is hardly reassuring. Will he be proposing to place Romanian Navy crews
alongside the USN personnel, to ensure the ship-borne missiles are always
pointing south and not north?
Despite the fairly decent politicians now in charge at Washington, before
them and probably long after them, the US military-industrial lobby, of which
Eisenhower warned us, has for as long as we can remember, sought the means to
girdle the earth with an offensive capability. This move, thinly based on an
Iranian threat, looks to us to be entirely in that category.
IRAQ: divided Shi’ites
Prime minister al-Maliki remains in trouble for the upcoming elections, as does
the whole electoral process. The US has repeatedly said that successful
elections in IRAQ
are a precondition for their troops withdrawal, so this must be causing
widespread anxiety not only in Baghdad, but also in the State Department and the
Pentagon. Violence has yet again re-emerged in Baghdad, the temporary respite
from which had helped al- Maliki. From the US’s point of view, even if the
elections are considered acceptable by their standards, there is a real
possibility that the two other mainstream Shi’ite groups now in alliance, the
Sadrists and the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council might defeat al-Maliki.
Washington knows it can do business with al-Maliki, prickly though he is. Al
Sadr is a third generation charismatic, religious populist, whose large militia
was at one time fighting against the US presence. He is, as near as anybody can
be destined in a religio-political state, to eventually get to the top. He is
also fairly described as ‘uncontrollable.’ As a Shi’ite cleric, he has close
ties to IRAN,
where he was at one time wont to disappear for months at a time. Our current
March report explains the most recent problems which put the election outcome in
doubt.
PHILLIPPINES – the electoral farce
Here is a long established, largely Christian nation, with a population of 93
million. It is sometimes called “the worlds baby factory” – which, because there
is no work at home, exports ‘3 R’s educated’ people to fill the ranks of the
first world’s low-paid domestic, hospital, labouring, marine and other manual
work. It ranks 84th (out of 150) in the
World Audit Democracy
tables, 111th for corruption and 61st for Press freedom; it is
probably the world’s most lethal place for journalists. This wretched,
exploited society is coming up to an election, and has just spent approx $100
million on 80,000 automated scanning machines, (exhibiting a 10% margin of
error) but why, when everybody knows the results will be ‘doctored’, certainly
at regional level – maybe nationally too? Reading our
PHILIPPINES
report this month is an education in how such a corrupt society can for so long,
masquerade as a democracy.
North Korea’s leader whinges
A rare event in Pyongyang. Kim Jong-il is quoted as complaining about his work
overload. He quotes his father Kim il Sung, as warning him not to get involved
in economic projects, to just concentrate on the military and leave economics to
party functionaries. Maybe this revelation explains why
NORTH KOREA’s
economy is such a disaster?
Appropriately, we caption our March update a la Clinton :“It’s the Economy,
Stupid!”
Libya’s unique attractions
Although we always faithfully report
LIBYA, we
don’t often feature it in this Overview except when something really significant
occurs. This month’s report “Shooting itself in the Foot,” in its title,
suggests accurately that something particularly foolish has happened.
LIBYA seeks to
produce three million barrels a day of its desirable ‘light crude.’ It also
seeks to modernise its economy, for instance opening its banking sector to
foreign capital –all very laudable and we describe plans and some successes in
some detail. However
LIBYA also has a ‘royal family’: the Qadhafis, father and sons. It
is true that the Qadafi boys are not yet in the same league as Saddam Hussein’s
fine lads, but it’s easy to see their potential. The full rich details are in
the LIBYA
report. Papa Qadafi has on Libyan radio declared a jihad against Switzerland (that
is correct, Switzerland), as following some violent behaviour in a hotel
there, the local police were called and detained a Libyan who is one of Qadafi’s
sons. QED!
Who rules Pakistan?
This was once easy to answer. Officially, this is a parliamentary democracy with
an elected president who has wide executive powers. The cognoscenti would
perhaps laugh at the question and reply, “Why the army of course, and the ISI.
Nothing that matters, happens without their say-so.” For this and other reasons
the quality of the elected leaders has been worse than any people deserved. In
2000, the military provoked beyond reason, actually took over, with the then
Chief of Staff assuming the presidency. Viewed objectively, General Musharraf
did rather well in ruling this unmanageable nation, but as they will probably
come to regret, he was eventually by one means and another, outed by the
constitutionalists, specifically the Chief Justice Chaudry, which allowed
elected politicians back into power, accompanied ever since by an avalanche of
chaos. So now the president Zardari, who had returned from exile, earlier having
been found guilty of corruption involving billions, had found himself
unexpectedly precipitated into presidential office, when his popular political
wife Benazhir Bhutto, the anticipated incumbent, was in 2004 assassinated by the
Islamic crazies, whilst out on campaign. Suddenly his whole status has been
challenged by a Supreme Court decision to revoke the earlier waiving of his
guilty verdict, (Chaudry again), in the matter of big-scale corruption. So what
happens now, given in more detail in our report, is that his political enemies,
specifically the sinister Nawaz Sharif, are waiting to make their play for
power.
To return to the question in this caption, the answer many are beginning to
believe, is that the apparently untouchable Chief Justice Chaudry, is stepping
up to the plate. He is described by disgruntled former allies as having ‘a
growing political attitude’. Our important mid-month report of 17th February is
very informative about the power structures in
PAKISTAN, as
well as assessing the prospects for a continuing peace between these South Asian
neighbours [GO TO “Prospects
for Peace : India and Pakistan”].
Afghanistan: ISI nets the Taliban Number Two
The capture of Mullah Baradar by
PAKISTAN’s ISI
means that he will be being interrogated by the CIA, or at least with their list
of questions, but in this instance he may avoid the simulated drowning and keep
his fingernails (or he may not). This will depend on whether he is to be kept to
negotiate with, on behalf of the Taliban High Command to seek to establish a
peace in AFGHANISTAN,
or alternatively to be ‘debriefed’ as the keeper of knowledge that he
undoubtedly must be. We look at this situation as well as the outfall from the
London conference at the end of January, which earmarked $500 million for what
in medieval Europe used to be called ‘Danegeld,’ to pay the Taliban not to
fight.
Iran in trouble with the IAEA
The advent of a new leader of the international atomic watchdog, Yukia Amano
(the former leader, the unflappable Mohammed Al Baradei, stepped down in
November), coincides with new evidence of
IRAN’s nuclear
developments. The new boss has produced a report which is positive about
IRAN being
involved in the development of nuclear weapons. That has been welcomed by the US
as a wake-up call - for
RUSSIA in particular, who in fact have duly shown signs of being
concerned. Foreign Minister Lavrov has stated that Moscow is very alarmed about
IRAN’s lack
of co-operation with the IAEA. The fact is that following the invasion of
IRAQ, US or
Israeli intelligence are heard, but not necessarily believed by other nations.
But on the whole, the IAEA as a UN agency, which steadfastly refused to
toe the Bush/ Blair line over
IRAQ, is listened to and considered more trustworthy. It was
and is always what IAEA had to say, that represented the red line for many UN
members. IRAN
had majored on its story that it was only seeking, as was its right, to open its
own civilian nuclear reactors. That it had no military program. Indeed only a
few days ago, one up from President Ahmadinejad,
IRAN’s Supreme
Leader Ayatollah Khameni, said that his nation would not entertain the use of
nuclear weapons, as they were clearly immoral and against the teachings of the
prophet. How IRAN
will respond to the leaked IAEA report is not yet known, but it does raise the
temperature.
Saudi Arabia: its regional Options
We have looked closely in our last few issues at Saudi’s problems with Yemen and
this threat of causing instability in the Kingdom. This continues, but looks to
be going off the boil. In this issue we explore the Kingdom’s situation, vis a
vis neighbours IRAN
and IRAQ.
The relationship with
IRAN, is on the one hand, between the two big political players of
the Gulf. On the other hand, they each represent one of the poles of the Islamic
faith, each considering the other to be heretical.
It is of course more immediately a problem for Saudi Arabia, if
IRAN was able
to get to the stage of actually possessing a nuclear bomb. Although even without
the USA, who must certainly be involved, Sunni Pakistan already with nuclear
weapons, has an understanding about this with Riyadh, a key financial supporter.
Rather like Catholics and Protestants in the European middle ages, each belief
system spurred on by priests, is capable of great cruelty and irrationality, in
terms of extinguishing ‘evil’: ie the other belief. There are those capable of
destroying the world on such matters of faith, but the people who actually
govern nations are well aware of the need to compromise to some extent. For
example IRAN
has a minority Sunni population, just as Saudi Arabia has a large part of its
main oil province (and workers) populated by Shiites.
The USA now has 30,000 military personnel in Saudi, their navy is on patrol in
the Persian Gulf. Much more is planned. It is, as we observe, something of a
regional throwback to when the problem potential enemy was Saddam’s
IRAQ. We also
examine Saudi’s relationship with today’s
IRAQ,
specifically the oil industry there, which has such potential for growth - and
what that might mean to the kingdom.
Turkey’s Critical Conspiracies
TURKEY is
undeniably a highly important country, particularly in today’s world, since it
physically is the bridge between Europe and Eurasia of the Islamic nations, that
lie beyond – to as far east as China, and south to
INDIA and
Indonesia. It is the world’s good fortune that it has a forward-looking ‘soft’
Islamic government, is a sturdy ally of the USA and member of NATO, whilst in no
way a satellite. It is it’s tragedy that there is a small but powerful ruling
class, looking back to the nation’s early 20th C. hero and moderniser, Kemal
Attaturk, who had the power and inspiration to secularise his nation and then
left a charge on the nation’s military to protect the secular constitution. The
extremists amongst these ‘pashas’ reject any form of Islam, elected or not, and
are clearly uncomfortable with the idea of democracy, but apart from military
authoritarianism, have nothing to put in its place. The democratically elected
AK party were first put in power to replace the nation’s existing conventional
political parties steeped in corruption, which reputation the AK has avoided,
whilst acquiring a record for moderation.
This month’s TURKEY
reports on the top level arrests amongst the military, from all branches of the
armed forces, for organising a far-reaching plot, and some of its ugly details,
codenamed ‘sledgehammer.’ The object it is alleged, was to create turmoil, which
included provoking conflict to the point of creating violent incidents between
the airforces of Turkey and neighbouring NATO partner Greece, bombing of mosques
and more. Calculated to create a situation where the military could topple
and take over government - as they have done four times since 1960 – our
report explains in much more detail what happened and is still happening.
SYRIA –the story with Israel
SYRIA has
received the formal announcement of an ambassador from the USA, a post vacant
since February 2005. Robert Ford the new ambassador, is an experienced
middle-east hand. It is of course, an important step towards the normalisation
of relations with the US, a necessary one in terms of finding solutions to the
longstanding Israel –Palestine problem, which several previous US
administrations have failed to move forward.
It seems the US seeks to have Israel reopen the negotiations over the Golan
Heights with SYRIA
via Turkey, which the incoming prime minister of Israel, Netanyahu unilaterally
shut down. There is also a development in the stand-off between getting Israel
and the Palestine Authority to meet, and progress the objective of the UN
resolution that founded Israel, to also found an Arab state. This program
running some sixty years late, may have found a new dynamic according to this
abbreviated story :-
“Recent meetings between the Obama administration and the Palestinian Authority
revealed the White House is on board a Palestinian threat to unilaterally ask
the United Nations to recognize a Palestinian state, outside of negotiations
with Israel, a senior PA negotiator told World Net Daily….
The negotiator further claimed the entire European Union leadership has backed
‘the plot’. "The U.S. prefers a negotiated settlement but indicated they would
back the resolution if talks don't progress," the PA negotiator said.”
Likely or not in its present form, the very fact that this story exists should
have the effect of encouraging Israel to get a grip (on itself), and at least
get down to serious talks.
Troubled Slovakia
Former minor Soviet satellite, now EU member in the heart of Europe. One
might believe that they had ‘arrived’. Our report tells a very different story
as we look at SLOVAKIA
before their June election. It is a tale of greed and corruption amongst the
ruling parties. The effective leader of the leftist FICO is popular but he
needs, and is likely to continue to need coalition partners, and there’s the
problem, as our article explains, since they are led by rogues. There are
continuing problems generally in Central Europe, but particularly in
SLOVAKIA of racist
incidents, specifically anti-Roma and anti-Jewish. Liberal leaders say it’s “a
matter of work together or bloody conflict”. Unfortunately, particularly in
times of economic hardship the thugs get listened to and it ends up as bloody
conflict. Europe is receiving a warning!
The Balkans & the wealth of El Dorado
Unlikely as it may seem, given their long history of relative poverty,
ALBANIA and
Kosovo could become the El Dorado of the Balkans, thanks to large mineral
reserves worth hundreds of billions of dollars. Kosovo has the largest coal
deposits in Europe as well as gold, silver, arsenic, thallium, bismuth, iron,
lead, zinc and other metals. In
ALBANIA there
are large deposits of chrome ore, bauxite, copper, nickel, quartz, magnesium and
cobalt. In the last two years huge explorations have been taking place in
Northern Albania. The Albanian government has been building roads to where
minerals are found. The value of already discovered minerals in Albania
and Kosovo exceeds 100 billion dollars as raw material, more than anyone could
ever have imagined. The consequences of successful exploitation would be
dramatic: powerful economic growth in Albania, Kosovo and the entire Balkans. If
this had been known a few years ago, the Serbs might have been even more
tenacious in defending Kosovo as their territory.
The fragility of Dayton
In other parts of the Balkans the news is less cheering, indeed potentially
alarming. Serbo-Croat relations have been frostier than usual for several
months, especially following Zagreb’s vital support for the ethnic Albanian
regime in Kosovo during the debate at the International Court of Justice.
Outgoing Croatian president Stjepan Mesic in January, threatened to intervene
militarily in Bosnia, if Republika Srpska, the Serb republic in Bosnia, attempts
to secede and establish itself as an independent state. He was responding to
repeated separatist noises by Republika Srpska’s nationalistic Prime Minister,
Milorad Dodik, who perpetually flaunts his hostility to the state of Bosnia-Hercegovina.
Mesic warned that if Dodik announces a referendum on secession – as the first
step toward the Republika Srpska’s unification with
SERBIA, to
form a ‘Great Serbia’ – he would send in the Croatian Army to cut in half the
Bosnian Serb entity, which ‘would then have to disappear’.
Mesic’s warning highlights the possibility that if Republika Srpska secedes and
the Bosnian Croats follow suit, it would leave behind an embittered Muslim
rump-state, that ‘would find itself in hostile surroundings, and would be able
sustain itself only with the help of a fundamentalist regime.’
CROATIA’s new
president Ivo Josipovic, has been more conciliatory. He has distanced himself
from Mesic’s threat to intervene militarily in Bosnia, saying that ’sending the
Croatian Army to a neighbouring country for me is not an option’ and ‘problems
must always be solved through negotiations and with the agreement of all
interested parties’. All of this shows again how fragile is the Dayton
Agreement, that brought peace to the area.
SEE REPORTS on: BOSNIA,
SERBIA,
CROATIA
In ROMANIA
and SLOVAKIA
we can see how relatively small nations become enmeshed in the wider
geopolitical competition between big powers. Romania's top defence council
approved a plan by Washington on February 4 to deploy interceptor missiles on
its territory as part of a missile shield to protect Europe (as we report more
fully in RUSSIA).
In past years, the Romanian parliament has solidly backed participation in U.S.
and NATO-led military ventures, including Romanian troop deployments to Iraq and
Afghanistan. Unlike some other EU states, popular support for U.S. military
policy is very high in Romania.
In SLOVAKIA
however, there has long been opposition to U.S. missile shield plans for Europe.
Obama's revamped plan, unveiled last September, includes land-and sea-based
missile systems ’in and around’ the Gulf, to defend against what it says is a
growing Iranian missile threat. His administration argues that the plan
addresses those threats more effectively than the Bush plan, although it has of
course drawn anger from Tehran, which accuses Washington of stirring up
anti-Iranian sentiment.
We report on the continuing efforts by
TURKEY and
ARMENIA to
normalise their relations, and the difficulties and setbacks involved. The
process impacts on many sensitive and complex issues such as the
Nagorno-Karabakh dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and international
recognition of the Armenian genocide. It is this last issue which particularly
involves the U.S.
If the U.S. Congress adopts the Armenian Genocide Recognition Act, which comes
up every April, Turkey would feel justified in abandoning the protocols on
normalising relations with Armenia. An unprecedented opportunity for
rapprochement would be missed. The implications are huge. For Turkey, adopting
the protocols affirms its ‘no conflict with neighbours’ policy and would boost
its flagging EU candidacy. Opening the border for normal travel and trade would
end Armenia’s isolation and would benefit both countries. A breakdown would
tarnish America’s prestige and could disrupt U.S. -Turkish relations at a time
when the U.S. needs Turkey to help stabilize Iraq, support NATO in Afghanistan,
and having a border with IRAN, back diplomatic efforts to rein in their nuclear
programme.
Central Asia
The ‘Stans’ of Central Asia, rich in resources and strategically located, are
constantly courted by countries around the globe. Right now
UZBEKISTAN, an
agrarian nation with oil, gas, gold and uranium reserves, is logistically
important for U.S. operations in Afghanistan. After earlier evicting U.S. troops
from an air base there, Uzbekistan has resumed talks on reopening the base, now
the Afghan war takes centre stage in President Obama's foreign policy. U.S.
Central Command chief General David Petraeus, has made frequent visits to
Tashkent, and Uzbekistan has agreed to supplies passing through its territory,
en route to Afghanistan, with which it shares a long border. Mindful of
the commercial benefits of good relations with Uzbekistan, the European Union
last year lifted sanctions on that state, citing progress by the brutal regime
on human rights (which has not been widely observed by others).
Meanwhile, neighbouring
TURKMENISTAN, rich in gas resources, is currently wooed by the
United Arab Emirates; also by the Czech presidency of the EU, on the Turkmen
pumping their gas to Europe through a pipeline that avoids Russia. But the
growing importance of a Turkmenistan- Uzbekistan axis is also discussed.
Clive Lindley
Publisher
Up-to-Date March Reports on all of the above,
plus many more
GO TO
For March 2010 Country Reports -
www.newnations.com
For abbreviated country reports and blog -
www.geopolemics.com
Go To Reports page now
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