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PUBLISHERS
OVERVIEW
JULY '09
IRAN & ITS TURBULENT PRIESTS
IRAN & its turbulent Priests
The rule of the mullahs and ayatollahs has been severely tested by the grotesque
presidential election, manifestly fraudulent yet described as heaven-blessed by
the top ayatollah. Since the overthrow of the shah, that absolutist tyranny was
replaced by an even more sinister regime made up of intellectuals, for the most
part scholars of scripture, who set about remoulding society from top to bottom,
with all the zeal and excess of the revolutionary committee who ruled France
after the 1789 revolution. Had it not been for the invasion by
IRAQ and the
bloody war that followed, it's hold on power might well have burned itself out
before this, but what we were witnessing in June was the long term resentment of
a fairly loyal population to the rule of priests, and specifically outrage at
the crude and cynical manipulation of the election process of ignoring their
votes for change. "You vote and God decides" as one cartoonist observed.
From the beginning there was fierce competition within and between that class of
men that are frequently described as "turbulent priests". That brought about
some compromise in sharing power, between some dozen of their kind but
Rafsanjani and Moussavi are still clerics and former rulers within the power
nexus and it is not obvious that either seeks to do more for their nation than
leverage a larger slice of the hands-on power than they currently enjoy. They
did however seem to represent change and many who voted for Moussavi and the
other candidates, hoped for that, and a more conciliatory attitude to the
outside world.
IRAN, its
neighbours and the west has to once more accept Ahmadinijad, who does not
disappoint in the role of a demonised hate figure. To be sure he was competing
with these priestly candidates for national power, which at the presidential
level, it is easy to forget, is only the third tier of government after the
Supreme Leader, and the Board of Guardians - which Rafsanjani leads, but does
not control. The Guardians have said: 'game over, the election is now history'.
How this will affect the hoped for thaw between IRAN and the west is yet to be
seen, but the immediate indications are hardly good.
Obama proving to be a potent game changer
How utterly refreshing it is to see the sweet voice of reason applied to world
affairs. We are minded to give a lot of credit to President Obama for the
outcome of the elections in the Lebanon. His bridge building speech to the
Muslim world fell on fruitful ground and to the surprise of many the outcome was
a moderate one, moreover it demonstrated the independence of this small
middle-eastern state. Accustomed as we have become to the labyrinthine (and
violent) ways of Beirut politicians, the outcome was logical and to western
watchers encouraging. A cross confessional bloc of Sunni, Druze and Christian
parties won 71 seats against 57 for the Iran / Syrian backed Hezbollah whose
armed wing offered the likelihood of further confrontation, but whose
politicians accepted the result.
Lebanon has long been a political football for its neighbours and the result
promises to change that. A stable Lebanon is one of the prerequisites for the
journey towards Israeli-Palestinian normalisation, which objective is certainly
a stage that must be passed before there is any hope of stilling the angry
Islamic heart, which motivates the violence of their foot soldiers.
Israel now cannot play the 'defence against Lebanese militias' card,
specifically Hezbollah, as a reason for not acceding to a two-state solution for
Palestine. It clears the way for a negotiated settlement of the long outstanding
occupation by Israel of the Syrian Golan heights, which had been looking
promising before the right-winger Netanyahu came to power. It is by no means
certain or even likely that this will be achieved under the premiership of
Netanyahu however, because he has proved himself a shrewd tactician, ready as he
is for negotiations with the Palestinians at any time, knowing that Washington
expects this. He will nevertheless hold rigorously to a few 'modest' sticking
points that will scupper any chance of agreement – principal amongst which is
refusal to hand back the territory now occupied by illegal settlements.
Palestine as 'Bantustan' – as a patchwork of small Palestinian enclaves he might
accept, but not a serious territorial state, as envisaged in the UN resolution
of half a century ago that called for this. The 'peace party' in Israel is just
too weak and Netanyahu lacks all conviction as a dove. History gives us one
example however, which could turn this prediction on its head. De Gaulle brought
the Algerian war to a close half a century ago when probably no other French
politician could have done so without a civil war. But Netanyahu – de Gaulle? Nahhhh!
That nagging pain
NORTH KOREA
is like a persistent toothache in the aggravation it causes to the world. This
is particularly the case since the power clique that controls everything, does
not speak for the people. Nobody speaks for the people because they are never
consulted. In regards to world affairs they must be one of, if not THE least
well-informed collection of citizens on earth. The clampdown on news and
information is absolute, the hermit republic is indeed hermetically sealed, the
propaganda is intense and the people very afraid of their 'communist' (for which
read totalitarian) rulers. For their part a handful of power-holders make all
the decisions, reward themselves and their families handsomely, and make a
mockery of the concept of nationhood. This month's report on
NORTH KOREA
tells us that the world can prepare for the advent of a new leader elect,
currently expected to be the youngest son of Kim Jong il. – "Dear Leader," and
grandson of the nation's founder, Kim Il Sung – "Great Leader". To help us
distinguish between all these Kims, as the report informs us, young Kim Jong-Un
will be known as "The Brilliant Comrade", who, despite his youth was appointed
in March to hold the office of Head of State Security.
Meanwhile they flaunt their now undoubted nuclear capability, which in such
irrational hands is a clear danger. But in context, the whole question between
nuclear capable states and the rest is looking like a dogs dinner. Israel,
INDIA and
PAKISTAN all
have nuclear weapons.
NORTH KOREA not a signatory to the non-proliferation treaty, also
has such a capability. Great concerns exist about
IRAN's joining
that club, which recent political events will surely see accelerated. Mohammed
el Baradei, outgoing Director of the IAEA has predicted that: without radical
disarmament by the major powers, the number of nuclear weapons states would
double in the next few years as virtual weapons states, who have the capability,
but have stopped just short of assembling a weapon, do so to buy 'insurance'
against attack. And isn't that what
IRAN is really
trying to do?
The 'obliterate Israel' threats, viewed dispassionately, are military nonsense.
ISRAEL in
any exchange, quite apart from the US nuclear umbrella, but in any matter of
pre-emption or retaliation with its own nuclear weaponry could pulverise
IRAN, or any
other prospective enemy with such an inclination and the capability of a
knock-down, drag-out fight. By the same token, if
NORTH KOREA
were to correctly aim and could get a nuclear tipped rocket to fly into a target
in South Korea, the US nuclear umbrella would be invoked, and Pyongyang would be
smoking ruins in short order, (which knowledge has hardly stopped their
brinkmanship so far).
None of this enables us to sleep any easier. Newly emerging nuclear states,
which obviously could include
IRAN, on el
Baradei's prediction are moving towards proliferation. What can halt that? In
his estimate the established powers 'radically' cutting back on their
stockpiles, and is that on any of their agendas? We do not refer to prospective
negotiated trade offs between the USA and
RUSSIA, which
has to be good - for this purpose 'less is more', but much of which has to do
with scrapping older weaponry and replacing it with state-of-the-art devices
giving a 'bigger bang for the buck'. We can only hope that it turns out to be
something more than that.
RUSSIA seeking a rapport with the West
This months RUSSIA
report is largely about relationships. July is expected to see a meeting between
presidents Medvedev and Obama and we review what is likely to be on the agenda.
A new rapport is possible and should be welcomed by both sides. It appears also
as we report that Moscow is being wooed by Israel's new Netanyahu government. We
also take a look at the relationships between the centre, Moscow, and some of
the 89 republics and regions of the Federal Russian state.
A Sufficiency of Top Brass
RUSSIA has
a military whose threat for centuries has been a permanent feature in the
deliberations of its neighbours. Throughout history they always had a relatively
powerful army, much of which is due to historic invasions and the reality and
threat of military occupation, the most serious being the 'Golden Horde' where
they caught the full brunt of the Mongol /Tartar invasions of the 13th century.
All of eastern Europe and much of the middle east suffered likewise, the
difference being that for most of it, within a fairly short timescale the
Mongols packed up and returned to their nomadic life in deepest central Asia.
Not so the Golden Horde. They remained for 150 years, exacting tribute, slaves
etc from the peoples of
RUSSIA leaving bitter memories and an ingrained racist attitude,
as exemplified in our times by the sad story of Chechnya's attempts at
independence. RUSSIA
had latched on to western ideas and eventually were strong enough to turn the
tables on their Moslem overlords and win independence. The oppressed swiftly
became the oppressors. Thereafter a powerful military has been a key element of
the various regimes that have controlled
RUSSIA.
Fast forward - the post- communist army was seriously tested, it now transpires
(who would have guessed), during the recent Georgian flare-up, and the lessons
are being absorbed. In effect the present reforms are aimed at transforming the
armed services from a Cold War global status where a rapid mass mobilisation of
reservists would become a compact standing army, capable of taking on the west.
Instead there is an emphasis on reducing 'paper ' divisions (only officers and
senior NCO's in place, but no soldiers), into modernised full-complement
brigades, appropriate to defence of the motherland, or regional hostilities,
modelled on the US and EU approach.
The smaller army will be more balanced and better paid, – it emerged in 2008
that there were more army colonels and lieutenant-colonels than junior officers.
The officer corps numbers will now be reduced from 355,000 to 150,000 and many
other reforms are scheduled.
SOUTH AFRICA : Zuma speaks fair
An early conclusion about the newly minted President of
SOUTH AFRICA
Jacob Zuma, is that he has an excellent team of speechwriters. Following his
widely praised inaugural address in the recent State of the Nation address which
even the opposition parties, because the sentiments so closely reflected their
own, 'could scarce forbear to cheer.' It is true that Zuma's availability to
even stand as president, was a consequence of a series of extraordinary and
highly dubious legal judgements in his favour, which sadly reflected the
'African Big Man' syndrome. This illustrated where this important nation has got
to in terms of democracy, independence of the law and the separation of powers
(not far). But the opposition parties having failed to halt the ANC, seem to
have shrugged, reflected that this is Africa after all, and addressed the future
on a pragmatic basis. There will be some further legal attempts to challenge
what has happened, but only a reckless optimist could expect any success towards
greater democracy to follow.
In this month's issue we analyse President Zuma's State of the Nation address,
quite as upbeat as his 'inaugural', making some firm if wildly optimistic
commitments like " half a million new jobs in the next six months". He makes
several big promises which are hardly deliverable in today's economic climate,
and the opposition could hardly oppose them individually, because they more
resemble aspirations than targets, Nevertheless the mood of more sober observers
was that Zuma's speech would play well with the masses, but what was really
needed was a speech that was less a display of wishful thinking and more about
careful, forward strategic planning.
Pakistan and the monopoly of violence
Whilst much of our JULY report looks at the considerable and ongoing economic
problems of the country, we obviously also report on the military response to
the insurgency in that nation. Lesson 1/01 in geopolitics says that a key part
of the definition of a rule-of-law nation state, is that the elected government
must have a monopoly of violence.
PAKISTAN
are confronting that reality rather late – but they are, if painfully,
confronting it!
AFGHANISTAN
Apart from the ongoing fierce fighting in the southern parts of the country and
the continuing association of
AFGHANISTAN's
problems with the Pakistani Taleban, the issues currently are revolving around
the presidential elections. It looks as though Karzai will walk it, since he has
made a deal with two powerful challengers (earlier in the 2005 election they
obtained 21% of the votes between them) who are standing down and throwing their
support behind the incumbent. They will of course be rewarded following his
re-election. Our July report explains the 'ins' and 'outs' of the situation.
Turkey enthralled with its next-door neighbour
The important and fast-changing developments in Iran are being watched with
fascination in neighbouring Turkey. Will the clerical regime in Iran possibly be
superseded by a moderate and democratic Islamicist government of the kind that
exists in Turkey?
In this month's report, there is news in
TURKEY of a
foiled military coup and an investigation into a separate right-wing plot to
overthrow the AK party government, which continues to enjoy broad popular
support. There are also court charges of corruption pending against President
Abdullah Gul, all of which suggest an impending political showdown between the
government and its opponents.
Ukraine – perhaps a new presidential candidate
Politics in UKRAINE
continue to be dominated by next year's presidential election, as we have
previously reported. The current president Viktor Yushchenko has little chance
of re-election and may well be superseded by Premier Yulia Timoshenko, or by
Viktor Yanukovich. However, an interesting development is the possibility of a
dark horse candidate who, given the dire economic situation, might come from
behind and defeat them all. He is Yosip Vrinsky, who recently resigned as
transport minister following policy disagreements with Timoshenko. Some see
Vrinsky's move as a means of positioning himself for a presidential bid.
IRAQ: after the Americans, the Deluge?
The moment of truth is arriving as by the end of June, even as we write this, US
forces are scheduled to have left all Iraqi cities. whilst retaining bases in
strategic parts of the country. Of course this is possible because the Iraqi
government believes that its own armed forces can now handle any situation likely
to arise. This months report on
IRAQ goes into
more detail.
It is not the end of US occupancy but it is a substantial move in that
direction. For those Iraqis motivated by love of country (never a strong point
where identity, primarily either Sunni, or Shia, or Kurd, has tended to
predominate). But perhaps nationalism would cover the point, for them to so
nearly have got their country back, it must be a proud moment. How extraordinary
that world history books are liable to look back and say that the whole invasion
and occupation was a ghastly mistake, based on false intelligence about WMD's.
"Whoops, Sorry," will hardly do!
Clive Lindley
Publisher
Up-to-Date July Reports on all of the above, plus many more
GO TO
For July 2009 Country Reports -
www.newnations.com
For abbreviated country reports and blog -
www.geopolemics.com
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