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Books on Libya
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Update No: 059 - (01/10/08)
After the Cuddly Deals, How Should the West Deal with
Libya?
Arriving a day after the Libyan anniversary of the 1969 ‘Fatah revolution’,
Condoleezza Rice was met at the Tripoli airport by the foreign affairs minister
Shalgham. The US secretary of state then met col. Qadhafi is his residence at
Bab el-Aziziya, the very building that was targeted by US fighter jets in 1986.
Rice’s visit to Tripoli represents a victory for Libya and it came just a week
after the country obtained USD 6 billion in colonial and war reparations, and
formal apologies, from Italy’s prime minister Berlusconi. Rice’s visit is
the final step in the four year long process made possible by Libya’s formal
renunciation of the pursuit of weapons of mass destruction and the conciliatory
diplomatic approach influenced, or guided, by Seif Al-Islam, the likely heir to
the leadership of Libya (though he has denied ‘political ambitions’).
Libya’s stated commitment to compensate the victims of the Pan Am 103 crash in
Lockerbie was the ultimate manifestation of Libya’s willingness to mend
relations with the United States.
Even as the IAEA will soon conclude its investigation into Libya’s alleged and
much exaggerated nuclear ambitions, effectively closing any lingering Western
suspicions of it harboring WMD plans, the Lockerbie case will continue to be one
of the lingering problems of the newly enhanced relationship between Libya and
the United States. The Libyans continue to insist that they had nothing to do
with Lockerbie. Even as the final compensation payments were concluded, enabling
Condoleezza Rice’s visit, Seif ul-Islam insisted in interviews that Libya was
innocent and that there has been a gross miscarriage of justice. The assertions
are not without merit, as the Lockerbie investigation has never yielded
irreproachable evidence. A Scottish police official told ‘The Scotsman’
three years ago that he believed the Pan Am 103 investigation to have been
highly suspicious. Indeed, far from dismissing the claims, the Scottish courts
have been active in re-evaluating the evidence against Abdelbaset Ali Mohamed
al-Megrahi, the former Libyan intelligence agent and convicted of playing a key
role in the Lockerbie bombing, for which he serving a 27 year prison term in
Scotland.
Al-Megrahi has been granted an opportunity to appeal his sentence just days
after Rice’s historic visit to Tripoli. The Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC)
in Scotland has re-evaluated the evidence, as part of a three year long review
of the case, suggesting that he have endured a miscarriage of justice. The
CCRC’s decision is based on the many doubts remaining over the identity of the
person who actually placed the explosives aboard the Pan Am 103 Boeing. The
timing of the Pan Am 103 bombing was also problematic and the idea that Iran or
even a Palestinian group based in Germany were the actual culprits, as often
argued by Megrahi's defense lawyers. Moreover, the Appeals Court in Edinburgh
has appointed a special defender to examine confidential documents believed to
reveal crucial details about the nature and origin of the timer that detonated
the bomb on Pan Am 103. The British government has argued against revealing the
contents of the document, which originated in an unspecified country. The
document emerged during the original trial and the CCRC said that the failure to
disclose it “could constitute a miscarriage of justice.”
More Business, Fewer Lectures
Needless to say, if in fact the appeal process should acquit Megrahi,
ultimately undermining the entire case against Libya for Lockerbie, the West
itself and the UN would be held accountable for the eight years of Security
Council mandated sanctions imposed on Libya from 1992-2000. In such an ironic
twist, relations between Libya and the West might be complicated by Libya’s
innocence. As Western leaders grapple with just how to deal with Libya, after
all the diplomatic and media grandstanding, they should probably hold back from
imposing any further conditions on bilateral relations. They should also
dispense with temptations to lecture Libya on human rights, democracy and other
‘western values’. In this sense British prime minister Gordon Brown and
other western leaders should not hesitate to invite the Libyan leader to London,
where he would attend an international oil industry summit. The British press
has already ironically and disapprovingly mused where Qadhafi might ‘pitch his
tent’
Tent logistics aside, a re-evaluation of the Lockerbie evidence warrants caution
in this regard. Indeed, while relations between the West and Libya are better
than they have ever been since 1969, there are already signs the United States
wants to hold on to some trappings of ‘moral superiority’. The US Senate has
already placed obstacles in the appointment of the new ambassador, Gene Cretz,
until the Libyan government deposits the promised funds into the find
established to compensate victims of Libyan terrorism. The Carnegie Endowment
for International Peace advises the government “to use its limited but growing
influence in Libya to support growth in non-governmental sectors rather than
implicitly endorsing the regime's status quo. The regime remains opaque,
unpredictable, and, buoyed by its petroleum wealth, is increasingly assertive in
international negotiations.” On the other hand, the West now has an
opportunity to draw Libya into deeper engagement; having taken the first
important steps in re-establishing a relationship, the West must nurture it with
care.
Libya has already given clear signals it expects the United States to treat it
as an equal. Foreign Minister Abd al-Rahman Shalgam said that Libya refuses
“any pressure or lectures on human rights”. Secretary Rice, seemed wiser
than some US senators on this occasion, as she refrained from discussing the
need for democracy and appeared genuinely surprised and pleased to have finally
arrived in Libya, given the significance of her visit. Ultimately, Libya is
recognized as having the fifth largest oil deposits in the world; whereas, the
Gulf states are the biggest source for oil on world markets, Libya’s oil is
located in a far more stable area. Moreover, whereas Washington is interested in
Libyan energy resources, the EU also needs Libyan cooperation in curbing illegal
migration to northern Mediterranean shores. In other words, just as the
1992-2000 sanctions, undermining Libya also undermines western growth and needs.
So far Libya has the upper hand.
During her visit, secretary Rice also made another pitch for the proposed US
military command base for Africa, AFRICOM. Libya has strongly opposed the plan
and all African countries, offered the ‘opportunity’ to host it, have
refused. Rice presented AFRICOM as a means to promote African self sufficiency
in confronting peacekeeping and counter terrorism work. Although, an issue of
disagreement, discussing agendas such as AFRICOM with Libya is a positive
diplomatic initiative, as it plays into Libya’s desire to be treated as an
equal. This has other implications, as far as US business is concerned.
According to the International Herald Tribune (IHT), US oil companies have
complained that the rapprochement between Washington and Tripoli has been too
slow. This has increased competition for Libya’s resources with companies from
Europe, Asia and Russia, who have been securing very important contracts in the
past year – especially Russia’s Gazprom. The IHT report quoted the US Energy
Information Administration reports that American companies such as Amerada Hess,
Exxon Mobil, or Chevron and Occidental have not been able to secure long term
contracts. Moreover, US companies have also been losing out to Europeans and
Asians in other areas from banking to infrastructure and construction, while
Libya has not felt secure about investing its petrodollars in the United States,
fearing the ambiguities over its diplomatic status.
Nevertheless, as important as it is for western companies to secure contracts in
Libya, the Colonel has reserved another surprise. As discussed in the Libya
update last April, Qadhafi wants to abolish the majority of the government
ministries. The idea is to turn Libya into a country of investors, rather than
dependents on the state, which would be responsible for organizing and running
the economy. The plan, to be implemented in 2009 according to the plan, would
only leave the ministries or secretariats as they are called, for security,
defense and energy. Even as Qadhafi’s plan represents, at the heart, a
de-facto admission of the failure of the ‘Jamahiriya’ (rule of the masses)
system he devised in his Green Book, the proposed solution may be just as
confusing. Col. Qadhafi reiterated his intention to adopt the plan during a
September 1st Fatah revolution anniversary speech. Libyans and foreign
businessmen have good reason to trust that this is yet another recipe for chaos.
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