FREE GEOPOLITICAL NEWSLETTER

iran  

For current reports go to EASY FINDER

IRAN


 

 

Key Economic Data 
 
  2003 2002 2001 Ranking(2003)
GDP
Millions of US $ 136,833 107,522 114,100 34
         
GNI per capita
 US $ 2,000 1,710 1,680 110
Ranking is given out of 208 nations - (data from the World Bank)

Books on Iran





Update No: 079 - (30/06/08)

Diplomacy running out of time
As the end of June approached, many were growing impatient at the slow pace of diplomacy in affecting the Iranian nuclear programme. More impatient than anybody else was the Israeli government, which in June leaked information about a military exercise allegedly meant as a rehearsal for a bombing operation against Iran. Although it is unlikely that Israel would unilaterally attempt an attack on Iran, the attempt to exercise pressure on Washington appears obvious. The Europeans, realising that their diplomatic efforts are losing credibility, had already decided a few days earlier to strengthen the sanctions regime against Iran. Apart from a freeze of the assets of the Iranian national bank, there is talk of sanctions targeting Iranís oil and gas sector, but it is not clear what shape these could take, given the already very high world oil prices. Although the Bush administration is reported not to have any hope that sanctions will force the Iranians to give up uranium enrichment, Washington does not seem to be gearing up for a military attack either, although that could be due to an intention to have Israel act as proxy. 

There is talk in Washington now of new strategies to be adopted, but it is not clear of what kind. Iran is coping with the sanctions by making deals with countries such as China, Russia, Malaysia and others, but the problem is that often these countries lack the most advanced extraction technologies. Iran needs such technologies because its wells are mostly ageing and the recovery rate is a low 26%; new technologies exist that could push that rate up and make the wells much more profitable. 

Ahmadinejad counts on the provinces
Although the western press is keen to portray the Iranian president as a lame duck, increasingly isolated and in decline, Ahmadinejad still appears to have a solid base of support in the provinces, where he has been focusing his efforts, travelling and spending money. About 1.5 million Iranians, for example, have received loans at favourable rates from the state to build homes, while 1 million more are scheduled to receive them in the future. At the same time Ahmadinejad is moving to weaken or intimidate his clerical critics, by unleashing accusations of corruption against them, which might well be true given the record of the clerical regime in the 1980s and 1990s. 

The longer term prospects for Ahmadinejad are however somewhat critical. For a populist based politician as he is, the tough decisions required to re-launch Iranís economy are not easy to take. The attempt to curb the consumption of fuel is now acknowledged to have fallen short of expectation and the government is now planning to request an additional US$7 billion to buy gasoline abroad, a bill which could rise to US$9 billion given the trend of oil prices. Efforts to further reduce consumption continue, as owners of luxury vehicles are now requested to buy fuel at market prices. The government now says that it plans to end all subsidies on fuel by 2011, but it remains to be seen whether it will have the stomach to go through the cuts. For the time being there is no mention of cutting subsidies on gas and electricity; overall Iran spends US$85 billion each year on energy subsidies. 

Inflation getting out of control
The latest official figures show inflation at 25.4%, up one more percentage point on the previous month. The plan to lend cheaply to businesses has produced little economic growth, as the inability of the government to supervise the deals, resulted in many abuses and non-productive use of the cash. The inflationary trend which is quite widespread in the world due to high oil prices, is therefore being accelerated by the policies of the government.

« Top

 

« Back



Published by†
Newnations (a not-for-profit company)
PO Box 12 Monmouth
United Kingdom NP25 3UW†
Fax: UK +44 (0)1600 890774
enquiries@newnations.com