FREE GEOPOLITICAL NEWSLETTER

philippines  

For current reports go to EASY FINDER

PHILIPPINES


 

 

Key Economic Data 
 
  2003 2002 2001 Ranking(2003)
GDP
Millions of US $ 80,574 77,076 71,400 43
         
GNI per capita
 US $ 1,080 1,020 1,050 135
Ranking is given out of 208 nations - (data from the World Bank)

Books on The Philippines

 


 


Update No: 048 - (21/12/07)

As we noted in our column last month, it has been a pretty good year for the Philippines. "Growth is up; the budget deficit is down; the peso is going through the roof (at least when looked at in terms of the United States dollar); remittances are at an all-time high and business has renewed confidence".
"I am a pretty good economist" said President Arroyo recently "but a very bad politician." 

That somewhat disingenuous remark was made while addressing a British business group recently in London during her November visit. Based on present indicators she may have felt justified in her comment. But one swallow does not make a summer and the fact that major rating agencies have yet to upgrade their country risk for the Philippines gives reason to pause. The outlook has certainly improved but there are still a few hurdles to overcome.

The government has been targeting 2007 GDP growth in the range of 6.1 to 6.9 percent and there is every indication that this target range will be exceeded. The hope now is for better than 7.0 percent and there is a fair chance of making it. The Economist Intelligence Unit is predicting a slightly more modest 6.9 percent for the Philippines this year-but still well above the Asian average. Numbers from the ADB and the IMF tell a similar story.

Certainly Filipinos can be thankful that in President Arroyo they have a president who is indeed focused on the economy and on making it more competitive for the longer term. Globalisation has come to the Philippines but, sadly, at such a glacial pace that many people are not noticing. They feel the pain, but not the gain. And as many commentators have pointed out time and again, the benefits of economic reform are not filtering down to the lower levels of society. Yes, we are seeking the re-emergence of a Filipino middle-class (after decades of contraction) but a middle class born of the fruits of overseas income, earned either directly or received through remittances. To this extent, the domestic economy is not yet growing its middle class in any significant numbers. (Indeed there are some recent surveys which suggest that it may still be in decline although the numbers are inconclusive).

What then is in store for 2008 and beyond? After two years of unprecedented growth it is doubtful that the economy will do as well next year. For one thing, the world economy is slowing. That, and the renewed turbulence of global financial markets, means that predictions for 2008 need to be made somewhat more cautiously. 
But Before looking at the Philippines in any detail it may be worthwhile to lift the curtain on the world in 2008.
At market exchange rates global growth next year is forecast by The Economist to slow to around 3.1 percent from 3.7 percent this year (measured at market exchange rates). US expansion is expected to fall to around 1.5 percent from 1.9 percent forecast for 2007 but the effects will be worldwide. Asia will not be immune to this but will still be the strongest performer.

Growth may be slowing down-especially as China seeks to rein-in its rambunctious economy-but the world is still far from a recession. The global economy remains in expansion mode, but expansion at a more modest pace.

Much will depend on what happens in the United States. The housing market will need to be watched carefully amid signs of a further deterioration. Stock of homes for sale in the US market continues to climb and are approaching levels not seen since the 1982 recession. The US money market remains troubled as measured by the increased spread of US Treasury rates and the subprime crisis has created the first sustained systemic liquidity impact on money markets in a decade.

But while the financial turmoil raises risk most economists consider the situation to be manageable. Corporate positions are healthy and inventories are not excessive. Furthermore, the weaker dollar has given a new fillip to US exports.

In looking at the global picture for 2008, we can expect markets to remain volatile and with less appetite for risk. But while there may be some further deterioration in global financing conditions, we are far away from the circumstances that led to the 1997 financial turmoil. For one thing, most countries have heeded the wake-up call of 1997 and have worked to improve their economic fundamentals-the Philippines included. Currency regimes are now more flexible, foreign reserves are much higher than they were a decade ago and for the most part current accounts in emerging markets have gone from deficit to surplus.

To the credit of the Administration, the Philippines appears to be well-placed to manage a more harsh environment. Government has done much in recent times to improve the fundamentals although some caveat must remain for the present on the sustainability of some of these measures, and particularly the budget deficit that is on target for this year but only on the strength of asset sales. Revenue collection continues to disappoint and is one reason the upgraded credit rating for the Philippines remains elusive.

President Arroyo is actually a masterful politician. She practices the art of the possible. Her focus is entirely on the economy and on pushing the envelope on economic reform. To achieve this she has left the polity relatively undisturbed (Indeed some would claim she has embraced it). Perhaps she learned her lesson from former President Estrada who, despite his unusual habits (unusual for a president anyway) was probably brought down for moving against vested interests in his efforts to open the economy, more than for anything else.
While issues surrounding the democratic process (or lack of it) in the Philippines, continue to excite many commentators in the national press and in Congress, President Arroyo has shown an almost Thatcherite determination to push for what she believes in against all opposition. This too augurs well for further growth to the end of her term.

The markets evidently concur. As of 3 December, the peso had risen against the US dollar by around 13.8 percent since the beginning of the year and indeed, has risen against most currencies. Something other than just the weakness of the US currency has been driving the increase. 
Indeed there has, over the course of 2007, been an across-the-board increase in monetary inflows into the Philippines.
The rise of the peso
USD 13.80%
Euro 3.41%
Yen 7.72%
GBP 8.46%
HKD 13.87%
CHF 6.25%
CND -0.20%
Sing$ 8.58%
AUD 2.78%
Baht -1.34%
Won 13.13%
China Yuan 9.05%
NTD 12.99%
NZD 4.57%
From I January 207 andas of 3 December 2007: Source: PBLF Research

Gross investment inflows so far have amounted to US$14.7 billion. This is more than double the performance for the same period in 2006 while gross capital outflows reached US$10.9 billion on a 124 percent growth. More and more Filipino companies are going global, contributing to earnings on invisibles.
According to the Central Bank, foreign portfolio investments resulted in a net inflow of US$3.7 billion in the first 11 months of 2007. This is a significant rise from US$2.1 billion net inflow a year ago.

Of the total gross inflows, investments in Philippine Stock Exchange listed shares hit US$11.8 billion in the January-November period this year, up 141 percent from the same period in 2006. Peso-denominated government securities, primarily FXTNs, comprised 18 percent (US$2.6 billion) of total investment inflows. The rest pertained to money market instruments and peso bank deposits.
Net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows amounted to US$1.9 billion in the first nine months-up 22.3 percent from US$1.6 billion during the same period in 2006. Gross equity capital placements reached US$2.0 billion while withdrawals were over US$100 million.

Remittances from overseas Filipinos coursed through banks has grown 15.0 percent year-on-year to US$10.5 billion in the first nine months of 2007.
There are no statistical data for BPO export revenues, but the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) expects it to reach US$3 billion to US$4 billion in the whole of 2007. 

The Department of Tourism expects international tourism receipts to hit US$4 billion in the whole of 2007, although again there is no statistical data for this.
In fact the only significant under-performer this past year has been the export sector. In export-led manufacturing, the Philippines continues to lose ground to countries such as China and Vietnam although there are some signs that a resurgence may be around the corner as more and more companies find that China has not fulfilled early expectations and that, it is sound corporate policy to look at a "China plus one" strategy for Asian expansion. Nevertheless the peso appreciation has hurt the small and medium enterprises that account for the bulk of economic output.

President Arroyo is confident. But can the run continue? The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts for 2008 estimate GDP growth for the Philippines to slow to around 5 percent next year. Others are not quite so pessimistic but even the IMF and ADB see a significant slowing. This could put the Philippines back to where it was a few years back and is not what is needed to lift the country into the higher growth plane that is so often talked about. 

Hopefully this may turn out to be a pessimistic forecast.
The wildcard in the economy could be the mining industry. There are welcome indications that the policy of encouraging large-scale responsible mining that would lead to sustainable development is finally taking root. Further large-scale investment into this sector has been identified and, if present trends continue, should start adding significantly to capital inflows in 2008 and beyond. At the same time, a number of mining projects are ramping up and minerals exports are starting to rebound. They will not yet take up the slack from manufacturing but will certainly make a significant contribution to foreign exchange earnings that are not there at present. The government is now moving with all due speed (so it claims) to ensure that the share of revenues from the extractive industries due to local government are actually paid to them. 

Political reform? Forget about it. This is a government that has no intention of rocking the boat. There is good business to be done in the Philippines but it will continue to be done the Filipino way. The danger is that belief in the righteousness of her cause could lead President Arroyo to again ignore public sentiment and seek to return to power after 2010 as prime minister. There is much whispering that charter change will appear back on the agenda in the New Year with the Administration determined to ram through the change to a parliamentary system by any means possible. This would leave the current crop of presidential aspirants high and dry and could be the one factor that would push this country over the edge. For the present we can do no more than wait and see.

« Top

 

« Back

 


 
Published by 
Newnations (a not-for-profit company)
PO Box 12 Monmouth 
United Kingdom NP25 3UW 
Fax: UK +44 (0)1600 890774
enquiries@newnations.com