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PHILIPPINES


 

 

In-depth Business Intelligence

Key Economic Data 
 
  2003 2002 2001 Ranking(2003)
GDP
Millions of US $ 80,574 77,076 71,400 43
         
GNI per capita
 US $ 1,080 1,020 1,050 135
Ranking is given out of 208 nations - (data from the World Bank)

Books on The Philippines

REPUBLICAN REFERENCE

Area (sq.km) 
300,000

Population 
84,619,974

Capital
Manila

Currency 
Philippine peso (PHP) 

President 
Gloria
Macapagal-Arroyo


 


Update No: 027 - (04/04/06)

The state of emergency declared by President Arroyo on the morning of Friday February 24th was rescinded on the morning of Friday March 3rd. It lasted barely a week. The coup, according to official spokespersons had been foiled: Situation normal? Well, almost. 
Outwardly the country carried on much as usual during and after the declaration but in fact the decree has only further polarised the political atmosphere.
That there were various cabals of the left and the right plotting against the government there was no doubt. That these groups were capable of staging a coup - or even launching one for that matter - we have strong doubts. That there are still shadowy oppositionists plotting the downfall of the Arroyo presidency, we are in no doubt either. Can they topple the President? We doubt it.
To those who support the president - and this includes the majority of the business community - the firming of presidential resolve to come down hard on dissent is a welcoming sign that the administration is serious about further improving the state of the economy and protecting the gains from those who would seek to commit sabotage. To her detractors, it is a further signal that President Arroyo is prepared to ignore basic freedoms and return the country to a quasi-Marcosian form of rule in which the laws of the land are interpreted to suit presidential expediency - and presidential survival.
The truth - as is so often the case - lies somewhere between these two extremes. Certainly, the president has a case to answer before the people over allegations of manipulating the result of the 2004 presidential election, then seeking to cover up her transgressions. When the matter was brought before Congress she used the advantage of numbers to stifle any proper investigation through procedural means. "The matter is settled" say her supporters. "Far from it" say her opponents. "Let's get on with life" say most people.
Sadly, the truth is also that the track record of the opposition when it comes to manipulating the democratic process is no different to that of the incumbency. The people of the Philippines no longer want media personalities running the country - after all former President Estrada was not even able to preside over a Cabinet meeting and governance under Estrada quickly passed into the hands of his drinking buddies - "the midnight Cabinet." President Arroyo at least is known to be a hard-working intellectual who, as she has shown, is fully in charge of those who serve at her pleasure. Most people see the present situation as being the lesser of two evils.
The popularity of President Arroyo shows little signs of improvement in spite of an economy that continues to perform reasonably well. The problem here though is that while the macro numbers look good, growth is still remittance driven and fed by a small number of very large companies - principally the telcos, food processors and large-scale retailers who are doing very well indeed. The rest of the economy continues to languish. She has singularly failed to inspire any mass constituency and is therefore reduced to depending on groups such as the Catholic Bishops Conference and other politicians to shore up her support base.

The employment situation says a lot about the economy
According to the government, a total of 750,000 jobs have been created in the past year - a rise in employment of 2.4 percent, or so it is claimed. This is lower than the one million jobs promised annually but at first blush looks to be a good result nonetheless. However, a closer look at the numbers shows that the micro picture is not quite as rose tinted as the government would paint. 
Firstly, it appears that a significant number of jobs have been lost in sectors such as construction, health and social work and manufacturing. These are key areas involved in asset formation - including social assets as well as fixed assets - and the decline would appear to place the country in further jeopardy.
On the other hand, the most significant employment growth appears to have occurred in farming and hunting (which does not include fishing - another sector where employment actually contracted) where a total of 479,000 jobs were added - or so the statistics tell us. Whether these are salaried jobs or subsistence employment (where people are paid in rice or corn) is not spelled out but we suspect much of it would be the latter. The second highest growth area was in local private households where a further 102,000 jobs were added. Again it suggests a migration from formal to informal employment.
Altogether these numbers do not suggest to us a picture of robust economic health but rather indicate employment degradation - higher status jobs being lost and replaced by low-paying ones - and a migration towards subsistence employment. This is hardly a recipe for long-term health.

Yet the RP rating continues to improve
Merrill Lynch is the latest to upgrade its rating of the Philippines and has recommended recently an overweight exposure to the Philippines, citing the country's attractive valuations and the government's progress on the fiscal and debt sustainability fronts as reasons for the upgrade. 
At the same time, the bank scaled back its recommendation for Peru to underweight from market weight, ahead of the presidential elections there in April. "In our model portfolio, we choose to scale back our Peru exposure to underweight. We think that there is more compelling value elsewhere, notably in the Philippines, where we have an overweight recommendation," the bank said in its latest report. 
"We implement this in the cash market by selling Peru '12s and buying Philippines '30s with the proceeds," it added, referring to bonds maturing in 2012 and 2030. 
Bear Stearns & Co. Inc. is equally bullish on the country and has predicted that the Philippine economy would grow by close to 6 percent in 2006. The company upgraded its outlook after President successfully thwarted last month's "coup attempt." 
In its Emerging Market Asia & Pacific Rim report, Bear Stearns said that investors are impressed by the growing optimism on how the Philippine economy will perform over the next one to two years. 
Bear Stearns said the expected increase in foreign direct investments, particularly in the electronic sector, and liberalized conditions in the mining sector will drive economic growth in the Philippines. It also predicted that inflation would settle at 7 percent in 2006, down from 7.6 percent in 2005.

At least its resilient
The World Bank (WB) is another agency bullish about the prospects for the Philippines. In its latest report the Bank says that it expects the "resilient" Philippine economy to post growth above 5 percent over the next two years, after expanding 6.0 percent in 2004 and 5.1 percent in 2005 (note that this number is provisional and could yet be revised - most likely downwards). "The Philippine economy recorded another relatively strong performance in 2005. Public sector deficits and debt were reduced in real terms and the value added tax (VAT) reform law, passed in May 2005, was fully implemented by February 2006 following a number of challenges and delays," the WB said in its latest East Asia Update.
At the same time, the consolidated public sector deficit (CPSD) fell to 2.8 per cent of the GDP last year from 4.8 per cent in 2004, because of rising tax effort and improving balance sheets of government-owned and controlled corporations. The government's tax effort, it said, improved to 12.7 per cent of the GDP last year from 12.4 per cent in 2004.
"Progress on implementation of the fiscal reform programme, coupled with the economy's resilience to various shocks - ongoing political tensions, higher oil prices, agricultural slowdown - boosted financial markets as reflected in a stronger peso, higher private capital inflows, and falling borrowing costs and spreads for the public sector," the multilateral lender said.
The bank, however, emphasized the need for improved tax administration and governance to ensure that recent policy reforms translate into sustained deficit and debt reduction as well as effectively implemented public programmes for infrastructure and social development.
In 2005, the country's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.1 per cent despite a high inflation regime induced by soaring crude oil prices in the world market. Inflation rate averaged 7.6 per cent last year. For 2006 and 2007, the WB sees the Philippine economy growing by 5.3 per cent and 5.6 per cent, respectively, although these figures are more conservative than the government's projections. The revised growth target of the government is between 5.5 and 6.2 per cent for this year.

Governance is the key
Governance is the key issue. While the Philippines is back on the radar screens of international investors, most of the money now dribbling into the country (to call it a "flow" at this stage would be overstating the case) is going into the bourse and into lending activities. The amount of FDI attracted into the Philippines remains very small indeed. Endemic corruption and policy vacillation continues to dampen the appetites of many who otherwise would be keen to invest in the country. Perhaps no better example exists than in the minerals industry. In 2004, a favourable decision of the Supreme Court once again opened this country to large-scale foreign investment into the mining sector. Yet again, many are waiting on the sidelines to see just how welcome - and how secure - such investment really would be.
According to the Chamber of Mines of the Philippines, the country needs as much as US$8.5 billion to implement the 23 priority mining projects and 37 exploration deals offered by the government to the private sector. In particular, US$8 billion would be needed for the mining projects, an amount that has been raised from an initial estimate of US$6.5 billion. Another US$500 million would be required to jump-start 37 mining exploration projects, the spokesman added. 
Yet while there have been a number of expressions of interest in investing into the local minerals sector, there is hardly a rush to commit funds and the government, is now seeking to review - yet again - its mining investment policy in the face of concerted opposition from special interest groups who oppose any development of the local minerals industry by international capital - preferring to reserve the sector for small-scale local investment - which ironically is responsible for much of the pollution and environmental degradation.
The fact is that the administration of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has not lived up to its early promise of being a reformist government that would not only lead the country back out of the doldrums but would actually place the Philippines on a higher growth trajectory than has been achieved to date. In fact, because of the need to compromise in the face of a seriously flawed presidential election, the government has actually turned the clock back to a culture of transactional politics in order to achieve its own survival. On most objective measures, the country appears to be backsliding rather than moving forward. The government is politically weak and unable to make hard decisions. Instead it is prone to pressure from special interest groups, traditional politicians and the wealthy families that control much of the local business environment. 
The result has been deterioration in the quality of governance as even the World Bank notes in a recent study of governance throughout Southeast Asia. In the Philippines there has been a sharp decline while others in the region have improved. In terms of political stability, the Philippines is now seen to be worse than Laos and only slightly better than Myanmar and Indonesia within Southeast Asia. Both the Berlin-based corruption watch-dog Transparency International and the Political and the Economic Risk Consultancy Ltd. (PERC) of Hong Kong have rated the Philippines as being among the most corrupt countries in Asia.

It's the Constitution stupid
According to President Arroyo, it is not the politicians who are to blame for the present sad state of the country but rather it is the political system they work under. With that in mind, the President has moved the issue of constitutional change from the back burner to the front burner. The proposal, which originated with present Speaker of the House, Jose de Venecia, is to change from a presidential to a parliamentary form of government and from a unified to a federal parliamentary system.
While most people would agree that the 1987 Constitution that came into effect following the overthrow of President Marcos and which replaced the Constitution of martial law years, is in need of some reform there appears little support - outside of the political class that is - for scrapping it entirely. In the effort to fast track a total overhaul of the constitution, many see a hidden agenda at work. Rather than reform the system into a functional democracy, many see the agenda - and the manner in which it is being implemented - as a last ditch stand of the ruling class in this country to perpetuate their hold on power indefinitely. Mr. de Venecia was a candidate for the presidency in the 1997 election and many believe that having been unsuccessful at seeking the country's presidency, he now seeks the same objective through being the Prime Minister of the Philippines. President Arroyo appears willing to indulge the speaker - but then needing his support within the Congress, she really has had little option but to go along with the measure. She is a shrewd tactician and her expression of support may be no more than a tactical move to buy her time so that she may serve out her full term and hand over to a friendly successor at the end of it. Some even believe that it is President Arroyo that wants to become the prime minister. The permutations are endless it seems.
As of the time of writing, the issue of Constitutional change is being put to a "people's initiative" rather than follow the more conventional route of convening a Constitutional Convention or have the two houses of Congress sit as a Constituent Assembly. The first option has been ruled out ostensibly for reasons of cost but in reality because it would surrender control of the change process to an outside body. The second option is a non-starter since the two chambers of Congress cannot agree on the issues of substance. By taking the matter direct to the people, the administration hopes it can control the process.
"There is a clamour for charter change throughout the countryside" according to one government spokesperson. If that is the case one can only wonder why the tactics being used to garner the signatures needed (a total of 12 per cent of the electorate can instigate charter change through petitioning the government) look depressingly similar to those used by former President Marcos to push through the 1972 Martial Law Constitution. In fact there is no clamour at all for change except from the traditional politicians who appear to be surrounding the administration and who stand to benefit most from the process.
Most people would be supportive of change if it leads to a stronger Philippines but in the current tactical combat between the opposing political camps, all sense of strategy appears lost. Rather than moving forward towards becoming a modern democratic state, there is a real fear among many quarters that the game plan is to turn the clock backwards. That may work for a while but it will only add to the social pressures building among the populace. 

 

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