FREE GEOPOLITICAL NEWSLETTER

tajikistan  

For current reports go to EASY FINDER

TAJIKISTAN


 

 

In-depth Business Intelligence

Key Economic Data 
 
  2003 2002 2001 Ranking(2003)
GDP
Millions of US $ 1,303 1,208 1,100 148
         
GNI per capita
 US $ 190 180 180 197
Ranking is given out of 208 nations - (data from the World Bank)

Books on Tajikistan

REPUBLICAN REFERENCE

Area (sq.km) 
143,100 

Population 
7,011,556

Principal 
ethnic groups 
Tajiks 62.3%
Uzbeks 23.5%
Russians 17.6%

Capital 
Dushanbe

Currency 
Tajik Somoni

President 
Emomali Rakhmonov



Update No: 292 - (26/04/05)

The great event in Central Asia today is of course the Tulip Revolution in Kyrgyzstan. But it is not likely to be replicated in neighbouring Tajikistan, where very different conditions prevail.

Weary Tajiks
In Tajikistan, people are simply too weary from a seven-year civil war that left 65,000 dead and made 500,000 people refugees. They would be disinclined to make any moves that could re-ignite the conflict. 
What is more, the prominent opposition cleric, Said Abdullah Nuri, who holds a great deal of moral authority in the country, would rather compromise than restart a conflict. 
Tajik President Imomali Rakhmanov held a corruptly run referendum in 2003 that gave him the right to stand for two more seven-year terms. That ballot reinforced, were that possible, the certainty that Central Asia's rulers are intent on keeping their positions and have little desire to do anything other than to pretend to transform those countries into genuine democracies. 

Referendum 'democracy'
In all five former Soviet Central Asian states, the presidents have used referendums either to extend their tenures, enhance the executive's powers, protect themselves and their families from prosecution should they leave office, or all of the above.
With the exception of Tajikistan and now Kyrgyzstan, all of the republics have had the same leaders since independence from the Soviet Union, and the activities of opposition parties have been curtailed since the mid-1990s. Since the presidents have all been in office now for over a decade, absent only of course the Kyrgyz leader, Akayev, ousted in March, and still have time left to serve on their current terms, there is more than a possibility that some may remain in power for life by manipulating their constitutional systems. Not only that but seeking to be the founders of dynasties that keeps hold of power after they depart the scene, as if in a family business. 

The price for ending Tajikistan's civil war
Ironically, the Tajik referendum came about as a result of Rakhmanov becoming more secure in his position. Of all the Central Asian presidents he had been most constrained in his actions by being bound by a power-sharing agreement with opposition parties as the price for ending the country's seven-year civil war. 
In comparison to his neighbours in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, Rakhmanov actually had to contend with opposition in the legislature and government ministries. Peace, however, served him well. Without a civil war acting as a common denominator for the various opposition parties' interests, the former United Tajik Opposition (UTO) that united various factions during the war, soon fragmented. Even the largest single party, the Islamic Renaissance Party (IRP), under the highly respected Said Abdulla Nuri, split with some claiming he made too many concessions to Rakhmanov and others arguing that it was better to make concessions than restart the fighting. This was allowing Rakhmanov to slowly lure people to his side, while removing those opposed to him.
Rakhmanov would place his new allies in government posts, allowing him to claim he was upholding the power-sharing agreement, while people who did not support him found themselves out of jobs. As the citizenry is simply war weary, there is a higher tolerance level for such actions and little desire for fighting against them.
Rakhmanov is perceived as seriously trying to tackle some issues, such as the country's serious drug trafficking problem. Notwithstanding which this country is an essential stepping-stone to the illegal drugs highway from Afghanistan through the mountains to Kyrghzstan and onwards to Russia and the west. Since Afghanistan produces most of the world's opiates, and that this a trade worth billions of dollars, far bigger than the economy of Tajikistan, it is hard to believe other than that different tiers of officials must be being paid off, not to intercept the north-bound supplies. Recently there was a big spat with the Russian troops about border duty with Afghanistan, which the Tajik troops insisted should be their prerogative. Cynics suggested that this was really about who would get the fat bribes to look the other way when consignments of drugs were crossing the border.
Rakhmanov is generally considered preferable to some of the other Tajik heavyweight politicians, such as the mayor of Dushanbe. He certainly seems to have a sense of humour. When taken to task by western journalists about malpractice in their recent elections, he is reported as saying that, "you must remember - we ARE Asians!" 
Thus, the growing acceptance of his authority and quiet removal of the opposition created an environment allowing Rakhmanov to hold his referendum with its incredible 96 per cent turnout and 93 per cent approval rating.

The Tajik criminal angle
While the leaders in all of the Central Asian republics are widely seen as corrupt in dispensing favours and aggrandizing themselves and their families, Tajikistan stands out as having a more sinister criminal element involved in heroin trafficking from Afghanistan in its political structures. 
That element is the one with the resources, and it could use those assets to gain the presidency in the country if that post should open up in elections, which for the reasons above must be highly unlikely. Tajiks might in such circumstances prefer to see Rakhmanov stay in office, rather than have some of the less savoury criminal elements at the helm to make it into a flat-out narco-state.

« Top

ENERGY

Tajikistan may supply power to Pakistan

Pakistani Federal Minister for Water and Power, Liaquat Ali Jatoi, met his Tajik counterpart, Nurmahmadov Jurabek, and Tajik President, Emomli Rakhmonov, in Dushanbe recently, New Europe reported.
After the meeting, Pakistan and Tajikistan signed a memorandum of understanding for sale of electric power to Pakistan and mutually beneficial cooperation in the field of hydro-power development with emphasis on cooperation in high voltage transmission lines. During the talks, Jatoi stressed that Pakistan wanted to purchase 1000 million watt electric power, restore air links and open land routes between the two countries as desired by the president and prime minister of Pakistan. In response, Rakhmonov assured full support to sell power to Pakistan, restore air links and open land route between the two countries. 

Tajikistan, UES set up Sangtuda hydropower plant

Tajikistan's Energy Ministry and Russia's Unified Energy System (UES) signed agreements recently to launch OAO Sangtuda Hydroelectric Power Plant 1, Interfax News Agency reported.
The document set the open joint-stock company's charter capital at 100,000 Euro of which UES owns 75% and the remaining 25% is owned by Tajikistan. Russia would provide funds for the final stage of the construction of Tajikistan's Sangtuda. The agreement on building the power plant, which has designed capacity of 670 megawatts, was reached in 2004. There might be some changes in the parties' shares in the charter capital as they continue to invest in the project.

« Top

 

« Back

 


 
Published by 
Newnations (a not-for-profit company)
PO Box 12 Monmouth 
United Kingdom NP25 3UW 
Fax: UK +44 (0)1600 890774
enquiries@newnations.com