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Books on Iraq
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Update No: 060 - (28/04/08)
Maliki tries and fails
March-April was marked by Prime Minister Al-Maliki’s attempt to deal a final
blow to the Sadrists, by challenging their control over a number of cities
including mainly Basra and some neighbourhoods of Baghdad. The operation seems
to have been the result of the lobbying of his allies in the Islamic Supreme
Council who wanted to reclaim ground in order to consolidate their provincial
councils positions in the forthcoming local elections. Maliki also seem to have
conceived the effort as a demonstration of the growing strength and
effectiveness of the state which he runs. Whatever the plan, it failed
miserably, as the Iraqi army was pushed back by the militias and suffered
significant levels of desertion. 1,300 army and police were sacked in the
aftermath of the violence, for having failed to perform their duty. A humiliated
Maliki was forced to allow Muqtada As-sadr led negotiations and re-establish the
status quo. Maliki’s position seems now weaker than ever; the fact that he was
in Basra to personally direct the military operations made things look even
worse. By contrast Sadr impressed the observers by succeeding in re-establishing
some kind of discipline among his forces and gained considerable political
capital. It remains to be seen whether he will be able to translate that into
long-term gains. Rather than negotiating a more favourable power sharing deal
with Maliki from this position of strength, he seems to be aiming at
consolidating his popular support and translate it into an electoral triumph. He
has most recently threatened all out war if the military is not called off from
attacks on his people. It is widely believed that in the event of elections,
Sadr’s followers could make substantial gains. With the approval of the
provincial powers law in April, provincial elections are now expected to take
place soon.
And keeps trying
Despite all, Maliki does not seem to have given up his aim to strengthen state
control vis-à-vis the militias and within weeks of the confrontation with the
Sadrists he was already trying to reassert control over gas distribution centres.
Indeed thanks to their access to portion of the oil revenue, militias throughout
the country have been able to replace the state as provider of social services,
consolidating the loyalty of a large sector of the population and further
weakening Baghdad’s hold. The process has however gone so far that reversing
it might require a stronger government. Maliki’s attitude towards the Sadrists
suggests that he might be harbouring similar plans for the Sunni militias in the
north: initial appeasement followed by an attempt to crush them.
Oil law towards approval?
In mid-April a deal seems to have been finally reached on that part of the oil
law between the central and the Kurdistan regional governments. The deal also
includes a method for determining the validity of the oil deals the Kurds have
signed with foreign firms. Baghdad and the Kurdish regional government have also
agreed to rely on UN mediation to determine the fate of the disputed territories
of the Kirkuk region. Some oil companies like Shell are allegedly already
training oil workers. Some observers however believe that some controversial
issues will resurface, such as the production sharing agreements which are at
the core of the law. Many in Iraq argue that these agreements are far too
favourable to international investors, given that the quality of Iraqi oil and
the chances of successful drilling are much higher than average. Although
sporadic attacks on pipelines have also resumed after a lull, the oil ministry
is determined to move on and has also finalised the list of companies which will
be allowed to bid on oil contracts. 35 of the 120 companies which applied have
been included in the list, among them giants like BP, Shell, ExxonMobil, Total,
Petronas, Gazprom, Lukoil and CNOOC. Six giant fields will be offered on the
market this year, while more bid rounds will are planned for next year.
Negotiations with the EU for the delivery of Iraqi gas to Europe also seem to be
making steady progress although since the gas is currently being burned off
there is still a way to go before there is any means of exporting it.
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