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Books on Libya
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Update No: 049 - (21/12/07)
The Path of Respectability
With few exceptions, 2007 has been a remarkable year for Libya. If 1969 is
remembered for the 'revolution' that brought a young group of military officers
led by Mu'ammar al-Qadhafi, then a captain to power, then 2007 shall be
remembered as the year that Qadhafi's revolution became truly legitimate in the
eyes of the West. During the first decades of Qadhafi's rule, before and after
the adoption of the Green Book and the Third Universal Theory, the Libyan leader
spent rapidly increasing oil revenues on fomenting political movements abroad
and on social engineering experiments, while making conditions unfavorable for
foreign investment. In the 1980's Libya's leader was mocked as the 'mad dog of
the Middle east' by president Ronald Reagan, and Libya earned a reputation of
being one of the world's most active sponsors of terrorism and groups involved
in armed struggles everywhere, including the Basque separatists of ETA and the
Irish IRA. That reputation solidified with the downing of Pan Am 103 at
Lockerbie leading to international sanctions for most of the 1990's. Since 2004,
when Libya declared its intentions to abandon its ostensible weapons of mass
destruction program, Libya started to gain international and diplomatic stature.
The last obstacle for full integration was cleared last July after Libya
released in July six foreign medics accused of infecting Libyan children with
HIV. Their final release was brokered by France. President Nicolas Sarkozy
visited Tripoli very shortly after the release, signaling a full normalization
of Franco-Libyan and European relations. In fact, the release of the Bulgarian
nurses also removed the last obstacle for a full normalization of relations with
the United States; secretary of state Condoleezza Rice had placed the release as
a condition for this to happen. Ms. Rice has not visited Tripoli yet. She has
been busy organizing the Annapolis peace conference in the past few weeks, but
she might well visit Tripoli in 2008 to reaffirm the new friendship between
Libya and the United States. Such a visit is important, as Libya has been
cozying up to Europe and France in particular lately. As expected at the time of
the Bulgarian nurses' release, France has gained significant business from
having brokered the deal such that Col. Qadhafi visited Paris, making it the
first stop of a European tour and stayed there for five days.
Reactors and Jets
France and Libya signed contracts with a total value of USD 14.7 billion,
including a civilian nuclear energy deal involving the sale of nuclear reactors.
The United States approved the sale, saying it expected its former foe to
respect its decision to renounce weapons of mass destruction. France announced
plans to sell nuclear reactors to Libya as well as 10 billion euros of trade
deals, as President Sarkozy's arms deal framework agreement is worth USD 6.6
billion. Libya's military has traditionally been Soviet and partly French
supplied and Libya's military capability has stagnated in the wake of its
international isolation and inability to buy desirable equipment in the years of
cheap oil. Libya's new political direction and the rise in oil prices have
changed this. The Franco-Libyan memorandum of understanding covering arms deals
worth up to EUR 4.5 billion; also include the first foreign sale of the Rafale
fighter. While the sale has not been concluded yet, it is evident that Libya is
very interested in shopping around for modern military hardware. Libya is
interested in French equipment, but other countries - perhaps not yet the United
States - such as the UK and Russia might also be in the market. Buying from the
West gives Libya a veneer of greater 'international respectability' than if it
was to buy from Russia. MiG aircraft, which however good they may be, are overly
linked to Libya's infamous air battles with the United States in the Gulf of
Sirte during the 1980's.
The Colonel also visited Spain, where he signed deals promising mutual
investment opportunities and defense cooperation agreements. The Libyan leader
held talks with King Juan Carlos and prime minister Jose Luis Zapatero. The
visit highlights the current relationship of mutual interests that exists
between Libya and Europe: Libya needs European technology and investment to help
it increase its oil production to the projected 3 million bpd by 2010, and (and
not only) Europe wants Libyan oil. Nevertheless, Qadhafi has also enhanced his
positioning in Africa itself, sponsoring and hosting highly publicized peace
talks between the Chadian government and internal rebel factions and
negotiations over a settlement for Darfur. During his visit to Europe, Qadhafi
did not fail to remind Europe of its colonial legacy and responsibility for
Africa. He also hinted at another subject of concern for Europe; illegal
migration. Qadhafi attended an EU-Africa summit on Dec. 8, calling for an equal
partnership between the two continents. He blamed the migration phenomenon on
Europe's imperial plundering; however, much of the security cooperation and arms
deals Libya has signed with Europe have included Libya's commitment to help curb
the flow of illegal migrants. That commitment is also necessary as Libya becomes
integrated in the Mediterranean Union.
Challenges
Qadhafi's European visit was not without its challenges; the Libyan leader
endured protests over Libya's record on human rights in France and Spain.
Indeed, an interesting aspect of the growing business ties between Libya and the
West is that human rights have not 'interfered' in the process. President
Sarkozy argued that since Gaddafi has abandoned the sponsorship of terrorism and
the development of illegal weapons, France and Europe should encourage him
further down the path of international respectability. Qadhafi's son Seif ul
Islam has been an important guide on that path. In 2007, his role as the
reasonable voice of Libya - often serving as an interpreter of Libyan
idiosyncrasies for the West - became increasingly evident during the past year.
Speculation has risen concerning Seif ul-Islam's future and his potential role
as successor. Libya has yet to formalize any Constitutional arrangement for the
succession to Mu'ammar al-Qadhafi; this remains one of the main risks in Libya.
While Libya's revenues have grown thanks to unprecedented interest in its
resources over the past four years, it has made no political progress. Some
privatization measures have been adopted and foreign banks, such as France's BNP,
have set up branches in Libya to help build confidence from foreign investors,
but politically there is a sense that apart from oil and security, anarchy
prevails.
The debacle involving foreign tourists being denied entry at ports of entry
because they did not have an Arabic translation of their passports is a clear
example of the institutional failure in the 'Jamahiriya'. Libya wants to
increase tourism. It has formally expressed interest in doing this and Seif ul-Islam
delivered a much publicized speech last summer in Cyrene to attract a cultivated
and adventurous type of traveler to Libya. Instead of facilitating the task,
some Libyan authorities decided to enforce the translation rule, a requirement
which had been removed not two years earlier to facilitate tourism. Should oil
prices continue to remain high in 2008, Libya should have another prosperous
year allowing for the status quo to prevail with few noticing the problems.
Should oil prices fall considerably, Libya could start paying a higher price for
its failure to address important questions of political organization.
The apparent resurgence of Islamist terrorism in neighboring Algeria serves as a
warning. After an attack in early December a group calling itself the Salafite
Group for the Predication and Combat (GSPC) has also issue a warning against
Libya. The elusive Al-Qaida issued a warning against Col. Qadhafi, suggesting
that the organization has members in Libya ready to strike.
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