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Books on Syria
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Update No: 046 - (28/08/07)
Al-Jabha al-Mumana'a (The Rejection Front)
August marked the one year anniversary of the end of last summer's war between
Israel and Hezbollah (though much of Lebanon was affected, Shiite and not). The
conflict had the effect of strengthening Hezbollah, giving the Shiite
communities more faith in the movement, while pulverizing Israel's aura of
invincibility. Syria's position, as Hezbollah's ally, was bolstered by
association. Syria could claim to have a winner in its circle of influence, even
though of course Syria did not actually participate in the fighting. A year
later and the main effect of last year's war is that it made Lebanon's fragile
society and political framework even more fragile, as the fracture between the
US and Saudi backed government of Fouad Siniora, and the Hezbollah-led
opposition has grown.
Last fall Shiite ministers walked out from cabinet, creating a constitutional
problem, as the Lebanese constitution holds that Shiites be represented in
government for it to be legitimate. That political conflict started after the
withdrawal of Syrian troops in April 2005 - and the corresponding rise of
American support for Siniora's government. American efforts to reduce
Hezbollah's influence and rising power continue to focus on disarming Hezbollah,
even as this task has become even more difficult on account of the strength and
resolve that the group has mustered after last summer's war. In fact it seems as
it always did, that such an outcome just isn't going to happen, unless Syria
ordained it, and even that might be a mirage. Every political-religio-ethnic
group in Lebanon has their militia. Where once it was the Maronites, then the
Palestinians, it is just that right now Hezbollah's is the most formidable.
Lebanon is also the virtual 'battlefield' where the United States administration
is challenging Iran's regional influence, while Iran is also Syria's strongest
regional ally. The emergence of a Sunni radical group, Fatah al-Islam, as
witnessed by the fighting at the Nahr al-Bared refugee camp - which continues
since last May 20 - was connected by various insiders to a CIA plot to create a
challenge for Hezbollah and Shiite militants. If so that must be regarded by
prime-minister Siniora as a Frankenstein's monster of an idea. Arguably, the
situation in Lebanon is at its most tense since the 1975-1990 civil war.
Washington has also blocked efforts to form a national unity government, the
talks for which have a very slim chance of resuming after they broke down last
February in the wake of spats of inter-confessional riots in Beirut. The Bush -
read neo-conservative rhetoric - is as usual very reductive and predictable: the
Lebanese political problem is one of extremists and moderates, as Hezbollah,
Syria and Iran are destabilizing the popularly elected government. Of course, if
Bush were sincere, he would have to recognize, that if the argument is to be
based on popular mandates, it is Hezbollah which has the popular numbers.
Hezbollah is also in coalition that crosses Shi-ite indeed Moslem lines, because
it includes Christian Maronite elements led by General Michel Aoun, a not
untypical cobbled together Lebanese political alliance.
Washington's support of Israel's war last July - even supplying it with extra
munitions of cluster bombs, the unexploded ones still maiming and killing people
in Southern Lebanon - and Condoleeza Rice's hapless explanations why a ceasefire
was not in Lebanon's best interests have turned much of the March 2005 US
sympathies around.
Whatever the stripe, pro-Syria or against, the biggest lesson about the United
States from last summer's war was that any American support for Lebanon would
always be compromised by American support for Israel.
Meanwhile, in the midst of this quagmire, Syria is the customary knee-jerk
suspect for the series of assassinations of politicians and journalists who are
inevitably anti-Syrian, epitomized by the case of Rafiq al-Hariri. The plots
intend to further undermine Syria, even though it does not appear to have gained
anything worthwhile in Lebanon, which continues to totter on the brink of a
wider scale internal conflict. That would inevitably involve Syria (and Iran),
leaving the United States and other allies (regional ones too), a pretext to
adopt an even tougher stance against Damascus. The irony, of course, is that the
war of 2006 has made the Syrian - Hezbollah relationship even stronger. From
Syria's perspective the Hezbollah relationship has given it credibility with the
Arab street and with the Syrian population. By thwarting Israel's plans and
surviving its onslaught, Hezbollah achieved what no other Arab state has ever
been able to do.
This alliance has also helped neoconservative elements in the United States to
continue to paint a negative picture of Syria, which even the best efforts of
Bashir al-Asad and his wife Selma, (speaking excellent English in a charming US
television interview last spring), have not been able to erase. Iraq has
exacerbated the tension with Syria. Apart from the often muttered accusations
that Syria is allowing terrorists to cross its border into Iraq (until recently
ignoring the apparent flood of Saudi suicidist volunteers across that border),
the US failure in Iraq itself has sent it looking for areas of regional success
to be able to sustain its 'democratizing' influence. Syria is a convenient enemy
when compared against 'democratic' Lebanon, where US influence had such a
positive role in prompting elections. Lebanon has become some sort of a
showpiece, a threadbare trophy for an administration, which everyone knows could
quickly become unglued.
In a sense Syria now has to choose between gaining acceptance in the
'international community' in the Libyan fashion, by cutting ties to Hezbollah
and Iran - and taking a big risk with nationalist Baathists and the Arab
'street', or by preparing for a wider military challenge which could see it
engaging in a direct war (rather than by proxy) with Israel. The probability of
such an event increases (but Syria could not prevail militarily and they must
know that), only in the event that the US or Israel attack Iran. Rumors of that
potential conflict abound.
Now, the pendulum seems to be swinging in a direction closer to the latter,
Syria's alliance with Iran is causing a regional rift between itself and
countries like Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan, which could grow more intense
than the 1980's, when Iraq (then a US ally) was fighting a war against Iran -
then as now Syria's ally.
Just as in the 1980's competing Palestinian interests are now reflected in the
regional tensions, and Hamas is placed alongside Iran, Syria and Hezbollah. This
alliance has come to be known as al-Jabha al-Mumana'a 'the rejection front,' - a
name borrowed from a loose affiliation of Palestinian groups in 1974 which
rejected the PLO's two-state solution approach. This is an apt name, because, as
with many issues in the post World War II Middle East, no exploration of
regional issues can escape a confrontation with competing ideological positions
over the Palestinian cause, which has also meant since 1967, an examination of
the role of the United States in the region. Indeed, Saudi Arabia's
multi-billion dollar arms deal with the United States has now compelled the
Kingdom to reverse the rapprochement trend, that had characterized relations
with Syria since the Arab League summit last March in Riyadh. Lebanon is at the
center of the dispute.
Riyadh accused Damascus of trying to stoke disorder in the region. Saudi Arabia
has also been establishing its own direct contacts with Iran (which is a
significant concern as fears of a Shiite crescent of power from Iran to
Lebanon), eliminating the role of Syria as a middleman. Saudi Arabia, which
supports the Siniora government, is also concerned by the forthcoming
presidential elections. It could not have been pleased in a 'barometer'
by-election to replace the slain Pierre Gemayel. In fact, this election,
expected to be won by another pro-Siniora government Maronite, was lost in the
same way that the ANP was supposed to have won over Hamas in the Palestinian
2006 elections. The Christian Maronites of Lebanon have voted for Camille Khoury,
a man opposed to the majority government of Fouad Siniora in Beirut. In 2005, at
the height of the US backed 'Cedar revolution', those voters backed the pro-Siniora
Gemayel.
Clearly, the pro-American government of Lebanon is now suffering from American
influence. Michel Aoun, now with his followers a Hezbollah ally, then fought
against Syrian troops in the final stages of the civil war in the 1990, is
running for president later in 2007. The Siniora and US governments are hoping
to replace the pro-Syrian Emile Lahoud with one of their own, but Aoun has a
good chance of ruining those expectations. Meanwhile, even as Syria and Israel
continue to argue over the Golan, refusing each other's conditional offers to
negotiate the disputed territory, Russia has started to deliver new and advanced
air defense units to Syria. The system involves the Pantsyr-S1E self-propelled
short-range missile air defense system, and was particularly sensitive in light
of Israeli claims last year that Russian arms sold to Syria, had ended up in the
hands of militant group Hezbollah. Media reports have put the number of units
sold to Syria at around 36.
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