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Books on Libya
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Update No: 046 - (29/09/07)
Grooming the Successor: Is There Anyone Better
than Seif ul-Islam
As Libya continues on its path to 'international respectability', a lingering
question overshadows the improving business climate and relations with the West
concerning who will one day succeed Colonel Qadhafi. Given that Qadhafi holds
the position of 'Leader of the Revolution', which is supra institutional there
are no formal mechanisms, neither in the legal nor constitutional sense, for
rising to this post. Yet, ever since the Libyan 'Glasnost' process began in
2004, Qadhafi's son Seif ul-Islam has played an important role in favoring
Libya's rapprochement with the West while acting as the public face for reforms
that slowly seen private banks establish themselves in Libya in expectation of
large flows of foreign investment. Seif ul-Islam is a PhD student in governance
at the London School of Economics and would appear to be the final piece of the
current reform process; a western educated, worldly and practical version of his
ideological and controversial father. Nowhere was this more evident than at a
recent speech Seif-ul Islam gave, amid the Greek ruins in Cyrene. His speech was
perhaps calculated to grab attention in the West, projecting a technocratic
image. Seif ul-islam is said to have delivered an impressive performance using
facts and figures to back up his claims. Unlike his more flamboyant father, who
has taken up various revolutionary causes throughout his career, Seif championed
the greenhouse gas cause, even sending off a reminder - in a country where oil
accounts for 90% of exports - that crude oil is a finite resource. He encouraged
the 'green' platform to launch an ecotourism project, and spoke of the many
resources that Libya has at its disposal already from fisheries to architecture.
Indeed, he was actually bringing years of UNDP advice (which has long advocated
Libya use its natural and archaeological wealth to develop tourism) projects and
ideas, which have never seen the light of day, to their most formal
acknowledgment yet. He intends to turn northeastern Libya, the Green Mountain (Jebel
Akhdar), into an environmentally sustainable region, creating a national park
and ecotourism opportunities, while excavating and protecting the nearby ancient
temples and coast.
Seif's 'Qadhafi Foundation' has been arranging many business deals, bringing
foreign investment in Libya to sectors not related to oil and was also involved
in the negotiations that helped release the Bulgarian nurses in July. However,
while the West and many young people would probably appreciate Seif, he has made
enemies among the Revolutionary Committees, which represent, ironically, one of
the very few institutions established as part of Qadhafi's 'green revolution'
(nothing to do with the environment). The true mark of succession for Seif, will
be when, if ever, his father also starts speaking out against the Revolutionary
Committees, who exist to ensure 'Green Book' orthodoxy. Yet, in many ways, Seif
and his father have been essentially guiding Libya in its reform process as two
sides of the same coin. The father has in latter years, played the role of
appeaser of the status quo, delivering anti-western statements when politically
convenient, such as in early 2006 defending the death sentence handed to the six
Bulgarian medics. Seif has spoken critically, unraveling his father's statements
with even more certitude than the latter. Notably, he conceded that the
Bulgarian medical workers were tortured while in prison and that they were not
to blame for infecting children with HIV in Benghazi, because this was the
result of poor sanitary conditions. In many ways Seif ul-Islam is a few steps
ahead of Libya's current status and while he appeals to the West, it is not easy
to determine whether or not he appeals to Libyans. A North African history
expert at Cambridge University, George Joffe, has also suggested that while the
western educated Libyan elite likes Seif, the more religiously inclined
population does not. Nevertheless, there are other non-economic changes
happening in Libya that suggest that an Islamic inspired opposition to reform,
is maybe less intense than believed.
Indeed, the Catholic Bishop Giovanni Martinelli, the Apostolic Vicar of the
capital, Tripoli, suggested that Libya is experiencing a resurgence of religious
freedom after three decades of restrictions imposed after the expulsions of
Italians and other westerners from Libya in 1970. The 1969 revolution that
brought Mu'ammar al-Qadhafi to power led to church buildings being confiscated
and then closed down. Catholics were allowed to keep only two churches, one in
Tripoli and the other in Benghazi. Libya's biggest church, in Tripoli's Algeria
square, was in the very heart of Tripoli and it was converted to a mosque after
the 1969 revolution. Bishop Martinelli, himself, had been jailed by the Libyan
authorities in 1986 when the US bombed Tripoli. Many of the current worshippers
are African migrants. Non-Catholic Christians such as Anglicans or Protestants
also have their own churches. While at first sight insignificant, the greater
extent of religious tolerance is a sign of social progress indicating that the
greater degree of economic openness is also starting to liberalize aspects of
Libya's social customs.
When is Condoleeza Rice Going to Tripoli?
The softening attitudes at the social level will be tested, should US Secretary
of State Condoleezza Rice attend an October meeting with Qadhafi in Tripoli, as
part of multilateral talks on the Darfur issue. US officials, however, have
implied that the unsettled issues, concerning the 1986 bombing of a German disco
and the payment of the remaining USD 10 million to the families of the 1988
bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, would prevent Rice from
visiting - who would be the highest-level US visitor to Libya since 1953. The
United States and Libya have already reopened embassies in their respective
capitals and President Bush has nominated an experienced diplomat to serve as
the new American ambassador in Libya. The nomination, however, has met
resistance from some members of Congress, which insists on blocking it until
Libya completes the Lockerbie restitution payments and settles claims from the
disco bombing in which several U.S. servicemen were killed.
In October, Rice is expected to travel to prepare the announced American
sponsored Middle East peace conference. Meanwhile, Rice was expected to meet the
Libyan Foreign Minister Abdel-Rahman Shalqam on the sidelines of the annual U.N.
General Assembly session on September 26, but the meeting was not formally
announced. Rice and Shalqam have met in person already as part of the diplomatic
meetings that began as the two countries moved toward greater cooperation. In
August, David Welch, the highest-ranking US Middle East diplomat, visited
Tripoli to make arrangements for the trip, which was made possible by the
release of the Bulgarian medics in July.
It is likely that Shalqam and Rice would be discussing the matters pending
between their respective countries. However, echoing rumors that have become
stronger in the past year, a former witness at the Lockerbie trial, Ulrich
Lumpert in Camp Zeist, Netherlands retracted the statement he made at the trial.
Lumpert signed an affidavit stating he stole a prototype Mebo timer at the
instigation of the Scottish Police.The timer was used by the prosecution to
demonstrate its case at the trial for the downing of Pan Am Flight 103. Mr.
Lumpert's statements match an earlier revelation in the British and Scottish
media last May implying that a former Scottish police officer with the CIA
planted the tiny fragment of circuit board crucial "in convicting a
Libyan" for the bombing of the Pan Am 103. Libya never acknowledged
responsibility in the matter and endured a decade long series of UN sanctions,
which were removed when Qadhafi handed over two suspects to be tried. This would
suggest Libya might claim to have been framed for the crash. (But it should be
remembered that they were found guilty by a German court of bringing down a
French airliner by a similar method - a bomb smuggled onboard - at about the
same time, for which they paid compensation to the families, that the court
awarded).
Despite re-opening of the case in some circles, the evidence has been
manipulated to such an extent by multiple parties that it will be very difficult
to proceed with a formal re-investigation. Libya may not have an interest in
pursuing the matter further, in order not to compromise the current relationship
with the West but could theoretically be in a position to seek compensation from
the West for the decade of sanctions. That would obviously sour relations and
would have to give the appearance of a challenge, even involving a cut of the
relations which it has worked so hard to restore in the past years. The
re-examination of the Lockerbie case trial suggests that, quietly, the US and
Libya may reach an alternative agreement over the Lockerbie obstacle to the
visit of Condoleeza Rice, who may yet make it in October.
Oil & Gas News
The National Oil Corporation (NOC) has announced that 35 are pre-qualified to
bid in its first gas licensing round under the EPSA-4 contract model. The list
includes Amerada Hess, Chevron, ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil as well as BP, BG
Group, Royal Dutch/Shell Group, Eni, Gazprom and Lukoil. The sustained high
prices for hydrocarbon resources have made it worthwhile to increase exploration
and output. Libya intends to use the concessions in order to develop known
fields that have yet to be developed. Shokri Ghanem, head of NOC, said he would
expect the new fields to produce from four to five billion barrels of oil, which
would indicate a potential value of some USD 300 billion should oil prices
remain the current USD 75/barrel range. The high oil prices are also acting as
an incentive for companies to put more efforts in drilling areas that may have
been neglected before. Ghanem said the plan to develop untapped fields would
offer two kinds of agreements for international companies: one allows the
company to share the oil while another option would simply allow companies to
collect a fee for the work.
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