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Books on Iran
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Update No: 070 - (24/09/07)
France appears to join anti-Iran front
The anti-Iran sortie of new French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, who said
in September that the world should prepare for war over Iran's nuclear programme,
represented a departure from the previous government's moderation and from the
position of most EU countries. Although Kouchner is known for his pro-US views,
the move might also be an attempt to issue a strong warning to the Iranians and
therefore avoid his 'Atlanticist' views being tried by a real new war in the
Middle East. He has in France backtracked on the 'aggressive' interpretation,
claiming that he was quoted out of context and it was the awful prospect of war
that he sought to avoid.That his words were a warning to all involved, to step
back from the brink.
A number of other EU countries, such as Germany and the Netherlands, are
limiting themselves to endorsing new sanctions against Iran. The Americans are
also keeping up the psychological pressure, leaking information that an air war
against Iran would not be limited to the nuclear infrastructure, but would
target the whole military establishment.
The Americans are also putting pressure on India to suspend its military
cooperation with Iran, threatening to drop the nuclear deal between Delhi and
Washington. The Iranians are reacting by trying to improve their military
proficiency and by bolstering the self-confidence of the armed forces with
continuous announcements of breakthroughs in the endogenous production of
military technology. At the beginning of September a new commander of the
Revolutionary Guards was appointed, who is reputed to be more professional and
technical than his predecessor. The new commander is also known as a believer in
asymmetric warfare and has been involved with the training of Iraqi militias in
the past, so that the appointment might also be read as a response to US
accusations of the Guards' involvement in sponsoring terrorism. The Iranians
also seem to be making exaggerated claims about the progress of their nuclear
program, which in fact seems to be proceeding significantly slower than planned.
The ills of populism
Ahmadinejad's economic populism continues to worry Iran's business world after
the president of the Central Bank, a recent presidential appointee, announced in
September a plan to abolish interest rates on bank loans. The government's
policy to keep interest rates below inflation is contributing to the depletion
of the Oil Stabilisation Fund, controlled also by the Central Bank. The fund is
down to US$6.3billion, that is $3bn less than in March. Another controversial
aspect of the President's economic policies is the fuel rationing plan, which is
drawing criticism even from those who in principle support it, because its
implementation has been trusted to inexperienced supporters of Ahmadinejad. The
shrinking of the Fund is likely to continue next year if it is true that the
government plans to increase the 2008 budget, in order to fund big
infrastructural projects. The unrealistic attitude of the government also
continues to impact on the oil industry. The agreement with Total to develop
part of South Pars, the world's biggest gas field, is now in doubt because
Tehran is demanding a higher price for its gas. Most oil companies remain
interested in Iran and continue negotiating, but are postponing to signing of
contracts in the hope that the international environment will improve.
Rightward shift mobilises opposition
The Ahmadinejad government is also cracking down on civil liberties, with a
purge of the universities, arrests of journalists, trade unionists, women's
rights activists and student leaders. There have been more then half a million
fines in 5 months against people who do not respect the country's strict
dressing code. These are seen as excesses even by some of the country's judges,
such as the Chief Judge. As a result political opposition to Ahmadinejad is
growing and is mostly polarising around Rafsanjani, who recently consolidated
his position by being elected as President of the Council of Experts, a
prestigious position. He has also proposed that Iranian leaders and institutions
discontinue the ritual name calling, when it refers to America as "the
Great Satan". That has of couse produced a negative reaction from those who
claim to know the mind of the leading Ayatollahs, who sponsor this approach .
The reformists are in the meanwhile forming an alliance among themselves and
with Rafsanjani's supporters and are expected to be able to compete in March's
parliamentary elections as a single bloc, while the conservatives are
increasingly divided. However the reformists risk having many of the candidates
disqualified from running once again by the Guardians Council and they remain
weak outside the main cities.
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