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Books on Pakistan
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Update No: 017 - (27/06/07)
Musharraf's external front: victory looming
Signs that Pakistan might be winning its Afghan war have been multiplying in
recent months. He seems to have succeeded in convincing the Bush Administration
that his policies work in their interest too. In turn the Bush Administration
seems to have succeeded in silencing its allies, critical of its approach
towards Pakistan. The leading pro-Musharraf figure in the Administration seems
today to be vice-president Cheney. The looming conflict with Iran is adding to
the value of Pakistan as a strategic ally of the United States and there are
already insistent rumours circulating concerning Pakistani help to US covert
action in Iran. Both in the US and in Britain influential figures such as former
ministers and former diplomats are openly arguing that Pakistan's interests in
Afghanistan must be accommodated in order to secure its cooperation in forcing
the Taliban to a negotiating table and to a compromise which does not sound like
a defeat for Washington. Some of them are even arguing that India's influence in
Afghanistan should be reduced as part of such an effort to have Pakistan on
board, while many are saying now that Kabul should be 'convinced' to recognise
the controversial Durand line which marks the border between Afghanistan and
Pakistan. Although the Pakistani ruling elite is likely to expect more in
exchange for a political deal and the end of the insurgency, these are clearly
signs that the political environment is moving in the direction pointed by
Musharraf.
Musharraf's internal front: undecided still
Things are not going that well for Musharraf back home, however. The cracks
in the establishment are a major new development, with the judicial system for
the first time aligned with the opposition to military rule. It seems that much
of the civilian bureaucracy is also opposed to Musharraf, who has been steadily
marginalising it. Civil society groups and most political parties were already
against Musharraf before the recent upheaval. Price increases and electricity
shortages contributed to erode the support for the government among the
population. Interestingly, the media have become very vocal against the
military, perhaps emboldened by the fact that a full military crackdown on the
press is no longer possible due to the spread of satellite TV. Musharraf's
attempt to impose curbs on the media resulted in a backlash and PM Shaukat Aziz
decided to withdraw it after days of protests by media workers. Will this
alignment of forces be sufficient to bring Musharraf down, or at least to force
him to a compromise? Among the pro-Musharraf politicians, many are beginning to
put pressure on the General-President to opt for a compromise. Quite a few of
them seem to be convinced that Musharraf is doomed and that what remains to be
decided is only how he will go. They do not seem to regret this possibility too
much, as complaints about Musharraf's failure to involve the Pakistani Muslim
League in decision-making are often heard. One of the them, Musharraf's former
PM Zafarullah Khan Jamali, went as far as quitting the ruling party in protest.
The problem is that the position of the political opposition and in particular
that of the PPP has hardened after 15 of their activists were killed in the
Karachi riots. In any case, for the moment being at least, the Army seems to
remain solidly behind him, as does the business community which is thankful to
him for bringing better economic management and creating conditions more
propitious to foreign investment. US and British support is still behind
Musharraf, although they are desperately seeking to convince Musharraf to take
steps which would at least partially re-legitimise him. One such step, as
advised by the Bush Administration, would be to seek re-election from the
parliament after the elections and not before, as he was planning to do.
Musharraf signalled that he might take a step in this direction, although not
very explicitly. The game is still open.
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