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Books on Iran
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Update No: 061 - (20/12/06)
A warning for Ahmadinejad
The elections to the Council of Experts were in part pre-determined by the
vetting of the Guardian Council, which ruled out many reformists and supporters
of President Ahmadinejad. The victory of moderate conservatives is therefore not
very surprising. Former President Rafsanjani topped by the far the list of the
elected representatives, but this too is not so surprising considering that he
was the best known of the candidates and that he had received millions of votes
as a Presidential candidate earlier. The local elections which took place at the
same time are somewhat more indicative of the mood of the population. It would
appear that the electorate opted to issue a strong warning to the President and
the government. Although Ahmadinejad's group was not wiped out, its ambitions to
expand its influence in the representative bodies were frustrated and it may
even have suffered substantial losses. Undoubtedly, Qalibaf's moderate
conservatives did well, while the reformers regained some ground. In Teheran,
Ahmadinejad's group appeared poised to get less than a third of the seats,
according to partial results, while Qalibaf's group seemed to be securing a
majority. Qalibaf had enjoyed the support of Supreme Leader Khamenei in the 2005
Presidential elections, but had failed to make it to the second round. He is now
Teheran's mayor and the voters seem to have rewarded his dynamic style of
administration. Qalibaf will now be emboldened in using the mayorship as a
launch platform for the next Presidential campaign, just as Ahmadinejad did.
Changes in the Ministries
While Ahmadinejad was weakened by the double vote, he might also consider it
as a warning that he has to readjust his policies, or improve the efficiency of
his government. In fact, he was already busy making changes to his
administration before the elections. Two new minister were approved by the
parliament in November, Cooperatives Minister Mohammad Abbasi and Welfare and
Social Security Minister Abdul Reza Mesri. Mesri's predecessor had been heavily
criticised for his lack of skills and experience and for hiring incompetent
people, as well for his inability to exercise control over the Social Security
Organisation. Other Ministers appear to be in a shaky position, either because
they are politically suspect or because they failed to deliver to Ahmadinejad.
The list includes the Minister of Roads and Transport and the Minister of
Commerce. Many changes have also occurred in the middle ranks of the
administration, particularly in the management and Planning Organisation, in the
Ministry of Economy and Finance, the Oil Ministry, the Commerce Ministry and the
Central Bank. The Parliament, moreover, is not happy about the performance of
the Ministers of Interior, Agriculture, Education and Energy and might take
action soon.
Expecting sanctions
With the Bush Administration in a weakened position and enduring Russian and
Chinese support within the UN Security Council, the Iranian government felt
confident enough to leak information that it is actually accelerating its
nuclear programme, with a second cascade of centrifuges being activated in
October. In December Russia and China responded with caution to US and European
calls for a quick UN Security Council vote on the draft resolution imposing
sanctions on Iran. Russia in particular objected to certain aspects of the
draft, such as the travel ban and the freezing of assets belonging to a list of
Iranian citizens, despite intensive lobbying by Condoleeza Rice. Many within the
Iranian political elite seem convinced that 'mild' sanctions will be imposed at
some point, but they do not seem unduly worried about it, or at least say so in
public. The expectation is that sanctions will be symbolic and aimed mainly at
saving face for the Bush Administration. The Iranians seem also convinced that a
number of states, including European ones, will be enforcing any sanctions only
loosely.
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