|
Books on Iraq
|
Update No: 045 - (25/01/07)
Blaming the Iranians
During December and January American despair at their own inability to
control the situation in Iraq seemed to be getting out of hand. At the end of
December the Iraqi government expelled two alleged Iranian spy operatives, who
had been arrested by the Americans under the accusation of planning attacks on
US forces. The Americans complained bitterly as they saw the expulsion as a
favour to the Iranians. Then in January the Americans raided an Iranian
unofficial consulate in the Kurdish area, arresting a number of Iranian
diplomats whom according to the Kurds had been allowed to operate in the area.
One interpretation for American willingness to antagonise Iraqi and Kurdish
authorities is that they might be starting to build up a case for action against
Iran later in 2007, or at least make the Iranians believe that such action might
really take place. While these raids clearly will not be able to contain Iranian
influence and activities, they might be more successful at highlighting the
extent to which the Iranians are penetrating Iraq.
Sunnis vs. Shias, Shias vs. Shias
On the political battleground, December and January were months of rising
tension between Sunnis and Shias, following the execution of Saddam Hussein and
two members of his inner circle. The humiliating way in which the execution took
place was a major contributing factor in fostering the identification of many
Sunnis with Saddam. As the violence increasingly takes the shape of an
inter-sectarian civil war, the Shiite front appeared to be trying to find a way
out of its own internal impasse. A number of politicians and MPs keep talking of
a new coalition to form under PM Maliki, which would exclude Muqtada As-Sadr's
group but include the Kurdish alliance and moderate Sunnis. As the end of
January approached, sources within the different political groups maintained
that the new coalition was virtually ready and just waiting the blessing of
Ayatollah Al-Sistani, who is allegedly worried that this might imply a break-up
of the Shiite alliance. As-Sadr, on the other hand, seems to be reacting to the
risk of marginalisation by softening his chance and accepting talks to
reintegrate his followers into the ruling coalition, after ending a boycott of
parliament and proclaiming a cease-fire. If he succeeded in reducing somewhat
the gap with the other components of the Shiite alliance, the prospects of a new
coalition excluding his followers would be somewhat disrupted, to the chagrin of
the Bush Administration. Sadr opposes any and all influence of the Americans
over the Iraqi government.
Corruption and ineffectiveness start pissing off donors
In the meanwhile, the Iraqi aid program is coming under growing criticism.
Because of the lack of safeguards, nil transparency and the existence of many
'discretionary funds,' it is widely believed that much of the money will be used
for patronage purposes or stolen outright. The Americans are asking donors to
contribute to a new US$1 billion effort, but the response is so far muted. For
good measure, the proposed budget for 2007-8 cuts the allocation of resources to
the Public Integrity Commission, which is meant to fight corruption. On the
whole the budget foresees a 21% increase in expenditure, much of which is
supposed to go into improving infrastructure (+60%). However, last year US$8
billion were left unspent because of the security situation and of ministerial
incompetence and ineffectiveness and it is difficult to see how this year it
will be possible to make much progress in this regard. The Oil Ministry in
particular spent just US$4 million (0.1%) of the US$3.6 billion which it was
allocated to improve oil infrastructure. A particular controversial item was the
allocation of US$230 million to a fund for the victims of Saddam Hussein, which
irritated many Sunnis MPs.
«
Top
|
