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Books on Pakistan
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Update No: 018 - (25/07/07)
Messier and messier
General/President Musharraf seemed to have really lost his magic touch as
the Pakistani political landscape continued unravelling during July, following
an army attack on the Lal Masjid mosque to free it from the control of Islamic
extremists. The bloody fighting marked the beginning of a jihad against
Musharraf for the country's numerous extremists. As yet unconfirmed reports
suggest that the influx of extremists into Afghanistan has abated after the
attack on the mosque, as volunteers are being redirected against Pakistani
targets. The militants in North Waziristan declared their truce with the
government over, while a wave of suicide attacks against Pakistani security
targets started sweeping the country. If the climate of violence, which started
with the 12 May Karachi riots, continues to unravel, it might well affect
business confidence and alienate support for Musharraf among the country's
business elite, one of the last sources of civilian support for the President.
The one positive consequence of the violence for Musharraf is that his friends
in Washington and the west will see this as a confirmation that the
general/president deserves the support of the Bush Administration and western
governments in the face of Islamist onslaught. Indeed Musharraf is already
arguing, probably correctly, that a purely civilian government would not be able
to cope with the expanding terrorist threat, while at the same time reassuring
the Americans that no state of emergency will be declared and that elections
will be held on time. Many, particularly the frustrated civilian politicians in
Pakistan, are however already accusing Musharraf of having deliberately provoked
the religious extremists in order to justify his hanging on to power. This
incidentally from leading (ex-pat) politicians who only a week before were
accusing him of backing away from the challenge posed by religious extremists.
In reality, the religious extremists, particularly those finally cornered in
Islamabad's Red mosque, had been accelerating their provocation by seeking to
forcibly superimpose and administer their version of sharia law in the
community, outside the rule of law accepted by the country as a whole.
A judge's victory
The decision of the Supreme Court to reinstate Chief Justice Chaudhry was
somewhat of a surprise to many and clearly a reverse for Musharraf, whose
ability or preparedness perhaps to impose his will on the country, appears
increasingly doubtful. Musharraf made a virtue out of necessity and accepted the
ruling of the Supreme Court, which was also hailed as a positive step by the
Bush Administration. Washington might well be hoping that this development hails
a return to the status quo ante, that is to the situation a few months ago
before Musharraf blundered into removing the Chief Justice. However, one problem
is that in the meanwhile, Musharraf's credibility as a soft dictator able to
smoothly handle the situation has dramatically eroded. To balance that, a
hard-line dictator would not have tolerated a Supreme Court telling him what to
do, so it is above all a net gain for democracy
Will the faith in the economy last?
According to the latest figures, covering the period up to 30 June,
remittances from the Gulf countries are up 28% on the previous 12 months. In
part this is due to the fact that Pakistani banks offer better rates than the
banks in the Gulf, but it is also taken as a sign of hope in Pakistan's economic
performance and stability. Remittances from other countries are also up,
including from the US (+17%). However, there are signs that this confidence
might be beginning to be dented. The increase was mainly concentrated in the
months preceding the recent crisis. In June, the average increase in the
remittances was just 9%, compared to average monthly increase of 19.5%. In
November, the monthly increase had exceeded 45%.
At the same time Pakistan's trade deficit has reached its highest level ever
during the 2007 fiscal year, despite record exports which for the first time
have crossed the US$17 billion mark. The 3.4% increase in exports is well below
government's hopes and is attributed to some analysts to the deteriorating
political situation in the country. Imports, in the meanwhile, grew even faster
to over US$30 billion, a 6.9% increase on the previous year. Some observers
criticise the government for favouring cheap credit to consumers who use it to
purchase expensive luxury items, a major factor in the continuing rise of the
deficit.
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