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Books on Iran
REPUBLICAN REFERENCE
Area (sq.km)
1.648 million
Population
66,128,965
Capital
Teheran
Currency
Iranian rials
President
Mohammad Khatami-Ardakani
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Update No: 058 - (21/09/06)
Buying more time
In the end Teheran once again avoided giving a definitive, clear answer to the
European proposal concerning its nuclear program. It refused to suspend uranium
enrichment, but at the same time it declared its readiness for further 'serious'
talks. Clearly, the Iranian leaderships feels that it is not in a position of
weakness after the 'lessons' of Lebanon and given the worsening violence in Iraq
and Afghanistan. The message to Washington is clear: after Lebanon, more lessons
could be taught elsewhere if Teheran was too drastically challenged. What seemed
to be implicit in Iran's actions in Iraq is now explicit, as vice-president
Saidlou and Ahmadinejad's loyalist stated in September that it is about time for
the Americans to leave Iraq. On the face of it, Teheran's diplomatic gamble once
again seems bound to be successful. After the initial round of negative
reactions to Iran's failure to comply with European and American demands, the
French government in a matter of days stated its readiness to restart dialogue
with Iran. As mid-September approached even Condoleeza Rice was not excluding
the possibility of new negotiations with Iran, despite President Bush's late
August statement that 'Iran must face consequences'. Predictably, Teheran's
response to the uncertain and confused reaction of its interlocutors was to
announce its willingness to suspend enrichment for two months, too little to
appease the Americans, but possibly enough to divide the Europeans, some of
whom, in Iran's view, are ready to a compromise in favourable terms to the
Iranians in order to avoid disruption to oil supplies and a major crisis.
Finally, by 20 September it appeared clear that neither Russian, China nor
France would support sanctions against Iran, forcing the US to approve a new
round of negotiations between EU foreign policy chief Solana and the Iranians.
IAEA reports suggest that in reality Iran's progress in enriching uranium has so
far been limited and that some of its claims of making progress are inflated, a
strategy which recalls somewhat the one adopted by Iraqi President Saddam
Hussein in the 1990s.
An unpopular executive
The government seems to be losing popularity rapidly, haunted by charges
that many ministers are not up to the task. Rumours circulate that Ahmadinejad
is planning to replace the ministers of commerce and transport and of welfare
and social security. This move, however, would likely not even suffice to
appease his fellow conservatives in the Parliament, who would like to see
ministers like education, health and agriculture go as well. The declining
popularity of his cabinet does not seem to be deterring Ahmadinejad from
launching controversial initiatives. After sacking 40 university professors in
June because of their secular and liberal views, he is now calling for a wider
purge of the academic establishment, in order to free it from the vestiges of
'colonial' influence.
A half-hearted siege
The US government continues to up its pressure on Iran's financial
institutions and economy, most recently blacklisting Bank Sedarat because of its
alleged role in transferring money to 'terrorist organisations', that is
Hezbollah. However, a setback occurred in September when Japanese firm Inpex
appeared to have agreed to a contract to exploit part of the south Azadegan
field. The contract has long been delayed due to disagreements between the
Iranians and the oil firms involved and was originally supposed to start in
March 2005. If the American efforts to build up pressure show slow progress,
Iran's efforts to protect itself are not moving much faster. Iranian efforts to
reduce the consumption of fuel, which stated earlier this year with ambitious
rationing plans, have now boiled down to creating incentives for drivers to
replace old, fuel-inefficient cars with newer vehicles running on natural gas.
This is clearly a long term strategy and also one of doubtful impact.
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