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Books on Afghanistan
REPUBLICAN REFERENCE
Area (sq.km)
647,500
Population
26,813,057
Capital
Kabul
Currency
afghani (AFA)
President
Hamid Karzai
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Update No: 058 - (21/09/06)
Peace in the making?
Pakistani president Musharraf's recent visit to Kabul was clearly meant to
be a turning point in the relations between the two countries. Under US pressure
to improve relations with Afghanistan, Musharraf went as far as admitting for
the first time that the insurgents are indeed coming from Pakistani territory
and receive support there, although at the same time he denied that they receive
support from the Pakistani authorities. Pakistani authorities also stated that
the Afghanistan government does not support the Baluchi insurgency back home,
another new development. Signs of US pressure on Musharraf to mend fences with
Kabul had appeared over the last few months and during August and September more
emerged. The US voiced support for the resumption of incentives to cement
exports to Afghanistan and expressed optimism at an Afghan-Pakistani agreement
to establish communication along the shared border, calling it a 'breakthrough'.
The US will provide the equipment to allow Afghan and Pakistan border units to
talk to each other and cooperate at preventing infiltration across the border.
However, it appears too early to say whether relations between the two countries
are really on a new track. The newly found friendliness did not last long, in
fact, and as early as mid-September the Afghan Foreign Ministry harshly
reprimanded Musharraf for hinting that the Taleban have at least some popular
support. In August, Foreign Minister Spanta had announced his intention to
establish a 'strategic partnership with Delhi', and criticised the
'expansionist' foreign policy of 'some countries' which use terrorism for their
purposes.
The intensification of the clashes in southern Afghanistan did not contribute to
improve the mood either. Although by mid-September NATO headquarters were
claiming to have achieved a major victory which might be turning point in the
war, most observers were sceptical. Clearly, compared to one year earlier, the
Taleban are recruiting many more local farmers and they seem to be quite
motivated, if not very skilled. The tactics adopted by the Taleban cost them
heavy casualties, but tactics can always be adapted.
Some good news and some more trouble
As the United Nations reported the coming of a record opium harvest,
pressure on both the Kabul government and its international sponsors is bound to
grow. Already the chief of the UN agency dealing with narcotics, Antonio Maria
Costa, openly criticised the Afghan government for seeking excuses such as lack
of capacity and lack of evidence for prosecuting individuals. Some interesting
news came instead from the judiciary, as the new Attorney General for the first
time since 2001 challenged the power of militia commanders by ordering the
arrest of one of them, who was wanted for having threatened a judge. The climate
in the judiciary has begun to change with the appointment of moderate scholars
as Supreme Court judges, although the mass of the judges remain the same old
corrupt lot.
Economy still pulling
Despite the deteriorating security situation, the Afghan economy does not
seem to be slowing much. The new poppy crop, 50% higher than last year, will add
a new boost. Imports of cement from Pakistan remain very high, despite the
removal of subsidies on the Pakistani side. 190,000 tonnes were imported just in
July. Recent reports suggest that over the last year the number of cars
circulating in Kabul increased by a third to 400,000. A third Afghan private
bank opened in June, although market penetration of the formal banking system
remains low, with just one third of all businesses having accounts and less then
1% taking loans. The largest private Afghan bank, Kabul bank, has deposits for
just US$206 million. The government plans to boost the growth of the banking
sector by gradually starting to pay its 400,000 employees directly into their
bank accounts.
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