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Books on Pakistan
REPUBLICAN REFERENCE
Area (sq.km)
803,940
Population
162,419,946
Capital
Islamabad
Currency
Pakistani rupee
President
Pervez Musharraf
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Update No: 009 - (26/10/06)
Waziristan: a good deal?
The more details about the Waziristan deal between the Pakistan government
and the local militants emerge, the more it looks like total capitulation. Not
only the government agreed to free the captured militants, but also to return
their weapons. The army agreed to abandon its checkposts and be confined in
forts, renouncing to carry out military operations. Despite all this, sporadic
attacks against government troops still cause casualties. Many observers have
doubts about the sustainability of the agreement and about the potential
consequences, not least because other districts bordering Waziristan already
show signs of advanced talibanisation. The militants seem to have perfected an
infiltration technique, whereas they eliminate tribal elders and the small
intelligentsia, effectively decapitating local communities and assuming their
leadership. Whatever the medium and long term consequences of the Waziristan
accords, in the short term it appears bound to become a resounding success, to
the extent of being proposed as a model for neighbouring Afghanistan by quite a
few observers, including some very close to the Bush Administration. President
Musharraf himself appears to have presented the deal as an exportable model
during his travel to Washington. There are indications that the Pakistanis have
been stepping up their efforts to widen their network of contacts inside
Afghanistan, even approaching old enemies in the north. The aim appears to
favour a political agreement and isolate those who oppose such a deal, such as
President Karzai and his circle in Kabul.
Economic progress and a few bottlenecks
A recent World Bank report praised Pakistan for its progress during
2001-2005 in reducing poverty, which the Bank estimates to have declined by five
percentage points. The Bank in its report identified the privatisation of the
banking sector in Pakistan as a major factor of success in promoting economic
growth and hence reducing poverty. However, fiscal discipline remains a key weak
spot of Pakistan. For example, 11 major banks and other financial institution,
now in private hands, have not filed tax returns for the last three years. No
measure has been taken against the violators of the law.
On another not-so-positive note Pakistan is facing growing difficulties in
securing reliable supplies of gas, a problem which is beginning to dog other
Asian economies too. Although the Pakistani government launched three separate
projects in recent years to secure supplies, none of them seem about to be
finalised. The Qatar project seems to have completely collapsed after the Qatari
government declared that its gas reserves were insufficient for justifying the
investment required by a pipeline. The Turkmenistan pipeline through Afghanistan
will remain on hold until the security situation in that country improves
decisively. There is now a major question, after Turkmenistan has signed a
massive new supply deal with Russia as to whether they have the remaining
capacity to justify the investment and risks of a pipeline to Pakistan and
eventually India.
Finally, the Iran pipeline faces the opposition of the US government, although
this project seems to be the only one with any hope of making further progress
in the short term. The rising cost of steel is however pushing the estimated
cost of the project upwards, having now reached over US$7 billion. Moreover,
Iran is trying to extract a gas price higher then India or Pakistan would like
to pay.
Breathing down Musharraf's neck
The political opposition intensified its campaign for free and fair
elections in October, with Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif meeting and agreeing
on a common appeal and the request of a caretaker government to manage the 2007
electoral campaign. Although the two leading opposition parties have agreed not
to communicate separately with Musharraf, in practice they are known to have
contacts. Bhutto's PPP for example has been cooperating with Musharraf on his
proposal to repeal the discriminatory legislation against women, but so far this
has not lead to a crisis of the opposition alliance.
It is quite extraordinary that these two discredited former leaders, both of
them with their political power base in seperate feudal domains, both of whom in
their time treated the nation like their personal property, should even be
allowed back into the country. If no new bright, young, and clean politicians
are to emerge, to eventually take over from Musharraf, the prospects for
Pakistan are depressing.
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