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  2003 2002 2001 Ranking(2003)
Millions of US $ 6,963 5,249 4,800 104
GNI per capita
 US $ 1,540 1,270 1,240 123
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Borislav Paravac

Update No: 113 - (26/10/06)

The Office of the International High Representative (IHR)
The international administrators installed under the Dayton accords maintain a significant influence over Bosnia-Herzegovina (B-H). There is a high representative, Christian Schwarz-Schilling of Germany, who has the right to dismiss politicians and impose laws. 
This was a right exercised extensively by his predecessor, Lord Paddy Ashdown, a former commando and unafraid to exercise his authority, which saw many local politicians glad to see the back of him. It could be said that much of the heavy lifting has been done as following Shwarz-Schilling, the office of IHR was planned to become redundant.
The mainly Western governments that oversee that office are considering whether to close it next year in June or extend it. The European Union also wants to withdraw its force of 6,000 troops. 
Results of recent elections, however, make an extension likely, or at any rate a distinct possibility.

Elections magnify ethnic tensions 
For Bosnia has run true to form. Its nationalist parties have once again stolen the show in general elections held on October 1st, by campaigning on eternal nationalist and religious sentiments - without mention of the economy or EU integration in a country where poverty and high unemployment are rife. Nationalist parties easily won the elections, leaving just enough room for speculation about the formation of coalitions, while smaller parties failed to even win the minimum number of votes to enter parliament.
Bosnian voters chose their leaders based on ethnicity alone - leaders who hold opposing views on how the country should be governed once, or rather if, the international community leaves as scheduled in June next year. Unless the two victorious parties can compromise, the results risk a delay by international authorities in ending their oversight of Bosnia. 
Two groupings are poised to dominate politics for the next four years. One is led by Haris Silajdzic, who was the Bosnian Muslim prime minister during most of the 1992-95 civil war, and the other is led by Milorad Dodik, Bosnia's most prominent Serb politician. Both Silajdzic and Dodik were criticized during the campaign for increasing ethnic tensions. 
Commentators said the next few weeks would prove whether the political leaders could find common ground. "We shall see whether they were true nationalists or they were just using the nationalist speeches as a campaign trick," said Tanja Topic, a political analyst at the Friedrich Ebert Foundation. She said that a "radicalization" of the two substates "would lead to the extension of the high representative's mandate," unless the two sides choose compromise. 
Voters were selecting members of Bosnia's three-member presidency - one president for each of the main ethnic groups: Bosnian Muslim, Serb and Croat. They also were choosing members of three parliaments, one national and one for each of Bosnia's two substates, one dominated by Muslims and Croats, the other by Serbs. 
Representatives were also being selected for 10 cantons, regions that have their own police forces, health and education systems. The complex layers of government were devised by the 1995 Dayton peace agreement that helped bring an end to the war, which cost about 100,000 lives. 
According to the Bosnian Central Election Commission (CEC), 48 parties and 12 independent candidates had registered to contest the elections, while four out of 23 presidential candidates pulled out of the race before the polls.
The elections were marked by a higher turnout of voters, some 55 per cent, compared with 2002 parliamentary elections, which barely reached 50 per cent. 
Observers estimate that only 7-10 per cent of 18-30 year olds exercised their right to vote. Analysts say that the younger voters may favour moderate over nationalist candidates in Bosnia, as the moderate opposition Social-Democrat Party (SDP) won more votes than in the last elections, when fewer 18-30-year-olds voted.
Perhaps the only future for Bosnia is for the 18-30-year-olds to get out their vote.

The extremes feed upon each other
It is clear that nationalist parties will have a majority in state and entity parliaments. Ironically, these elections, like the previous ones, proved that nationalist parties would not have a chance of winning without each other.
In parts of Bosnia where there is a Croat majority, the nationalist Croat Democratic Party (HDZ) remains the strongest, while in parts of the federation entity where Bosniaks are the majority, power will be shared by the nationalist Party of Democratic Action (SDA) and its former ally, the Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina (SBIH).
In Republika Srpska, elections at all levels were swept by the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), whose leader, Milorad Dodik, campaigned on talk of seceding from Bosnia and Herzegovina should federation politicians attempt to unite the two entities. Dodik, often warned by the international community and threatened with suspension from politics, beat out long-time nationalist leader, the Serb Democratic Party (SDS), founded by indicted war criminal Radovan Karadzic, the wartime Bosnian Serb leader who is on the run from international authorities.
Bosniak and Croat parties favour strengthening the weak central government, while Serbs oppose any changes that would reduce their autonomy and eventually spell the end of the entity's separate existence.
On the Bosniak side, the winner was the party that was loudest in campaigning for the suspension of Republika Srpska. That party, the SBiH, was until now a minor party that jumped on the nationalist bandwagon as a clear route to victory.
Wartime Bosnian foreign minister and prime minister, SBiH leader Haris Silajdzic, promised Bosniaks that if his party won, Republika Srpska would cease to exist, despite warnings from the international community against such blunt talk. But it clearly worked, and the SBiH was catapulted from a virtual unknown to win some 20 percent of the votes, meaning that a government cannot be formed without its cooperation. Silajdzic also won the Bosniak seat in the rotating state presidency, beating out the incumbent, nationalist SDA leader Sulejman Tihic.
But even Silajdzic was willing to set aside opportunistic nationalist rhetoric after the victory for a dose of reality: "We have ethnic representation, not citizens' representation. There are obviously parties that have a different concept so we'll have to talk," he said shortly after the results were announced.
Silajdzic said on October 2nd that he was determined to start work on a Bosnia in which institutions and politics were no longer based on ethnicity. Dodik retorted that the support for his party showed that Serbian voters favoured Bosnia's federal structure. 

The new three-part state presidency 
Silajdzic emerged as the clear winner of the Muslim seat on the presidency. Nebojsa Radmanovic, a member of Dodik's Alliance of Independent Social Democrats, won the Serb place on the central presidency.
The only fairly refreshing surprise of the elections was the victory of Zeljko Komsic, who won the Croat seat on the state presidency. Komsic, from the moderate SDP, won with 41 per cent of the votes, beating out the nationalist HDZ candidate, incumbent Ivo Miro Jovic, who won only 21 per cent. 
However, HDZ officials and Jovic refused to recognize Komsic's victory, saying he had won with support from voters outside the ethnic group, and that even though he was a Bosnian Croat, he could not represent the ethnic group because he spent the war after in Sarajevo rather than in a Croat-majority area, and served in Bosnian Army, which was majority Bosniak. In short, they criticized him for his patriotism to Sarajevo when it was under siege by Serb forces.
HDZ alleges that Komsic won only five per cent of Croat votes, and that Bosniaks who voted for him stole the victory from Jovic.
"I am the Croat member of the Bosnian presidency, according to the will of Bosnian Croats," Jovic said. "If this will is not respected, something tragic may happen in this country. Everything is possible, including that Croats might want out of such a Bosnia," Jovic said after the results were published.

Repercussions of the new parliamentary composition 
The Serb-dominated Independent Social Democrats and Silajdzic's Muslim- dominated Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina hold the most seats in the national Parliament. 
International officials worry that their political differences will set back progress on reforms designed to make Bosnia function more easily and facilitate the complete transfer of power from foreign officials to local politicians. Silajdzic and Dodik have each advocated tougher versions of policies supported by their ethnic groups. Bosnian Muslims, the largest group, support a more unified country and give some support to their Roman Catholic Croat allies. Their ultimate hope is that Bosnia will join the European Union once its political and economic reforms are completed. But many Serbs hope their half of the country can become independent, a position that sparked the war. 
And so Silajdzic advocated a more centralized state. Dodik countered by saying that such a move would result in Bosnian Serbs holding a referendum on independence. Diplomats fear that such a move could spark violence, after a long stretch of relative quiet. 
The results mean that there is likely to be little progress toward boosting the economy and moving ahead with EU integration. Instead, the next four years are certain to be a repeat of the previous ones, spent squabbling and dealing with decade-old ethnic divisions.
Bosnian politicians face the tests of simplifying their political structures and creating a single police force, both of which the EU insists on before agreeing to closer economic and political ties.


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