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In-depth Business Intelligence
Books on Iraq
REPUBLICAN REFERENCE
Area (sq.km)
437,072
Population
24,001,816 (July 2002 est.)
Capital
Baghdad
Currency
Iraqi dinar (IQD)
President
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Update No: 034 - (23/02/06)
Containing the Shias
The determined effort of the Shia groups to secure political power and
control the administration is having the effect of driving all the other
political groups together. The fact that the Kurds would have preferred a
stronger electoral performance of Allawi's secular grouping was never a mystery,
but in February Kurdish President Talabani went as far as stating that the Kurds
will not participate in a government without Allawi. The Kurds' desire to defend
Allawi's inclusion might be a reaction to the latter's drift towards an alliance
with the two Sunni groupings, which would represent a danger to the Kurds's
ambition for an autonomous region in the north. The new nationalist Arab
alliance counts on 80 seats in the parliament and because it is formed around
Arab nationalist feelings, it is likely to have a less then benevolent view of
the Kurdish ambitions, unless some quick action is taken. The alliance was
probably encouraged by the Americans, who are keen to limit the expansion of
Iranian influence in Iraq, but inevitably such alliance will have aims of its
own.
Jafaari is back
After an initial failure to select the alliance's candidate to the post of
Prime Minister, an alliance within the alliance of Al-Dawa and Muqtada As-Sadr's
group confirmed Jafaari as Prime Minister, defeating the ambition of Abdel Mahdi,
one of the leaders of SCIRI, to replace him. The election of Jafaari, who has
bad personal relations with President Talabani, will represent a further
incentive for the Kurds to expand the ruling coalition to other forces. Since
the Sunni groups, now allied with Allawi, have little love for Jaffari either,
the formation of a new government is likely to take sometime. The main bone of
contention will now be the post of Interior Minister. The US and the UN appear
to support Allawi for the job, or in any case a non-sectarian candidate, but he
is strongly opposed by the religious Shia groups, especially As-Sadr's. The
current Interior Minister, Shiite Bayan Jabr, has been the object of repeated
calls to resign from the Sunni side, which accuses him of involvement in
sectarian violence. Moreover, since Jafaari is widely considered a rather
ineffective premier, the forthcoming government might also face some
difficulties in establishing its credentials among the population.
Some management problems
A recent study of the services provided by the Iraqi state found that the
only improvement concerns the hours of electrical power provided outside
Baghdad, while all the other indicators showed a worsening with respect to the
pre-war situation, despite the expenditure of US$16 billion of US aid money and
US$40 billion of Iraqi oil money. Another aspect of the mismanagement of Iraq is
highlighted by the rapidly developing petrol scandal. In January the main
international providers of petrol to Iraq, that is Turkey and Saudi Arabia, have
announced that they are stopping exports due to huge arrears in payment,
reaching US$1 billion just in Turkey's case. These two countries alone supply
over half of Iraq's domestic consumption. In February Kuwait too stopped
supplying Iraq, for the same reason, so that Iraqi imports were down by a total
of 75%. While availability declines, consumption keeps increasing not least
because more and more small generators are being used to generate electricity,
due to the failure of the government to supply enough of it. It is not clear on
which grounds state officials are refusing to pay the bills, but it does not
look good. The government is now considering purchases from Iran, which is
itself a large importer of petrol and would therefore export to Iraq mainly for
political reasons.
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