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Books on Iraq
REPUBLICAN REFERENCE
Area (sq.km)
437,072
Population
24,001,816 (July 2002 est.)
Capital
Baghdad
Currency
Iraqi dinar (IQD)
President
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Update No: 038 - (27/06/06)
A complete cabinet, finally
On 9 June Prime Minister Al Maliki finally managed to complete his cabinet
with the appointment of the three missing ministers. The Ministry of Interior
was given to Jawad Polani, an independent Shia, while Defense went to Al Obeidi,
an independent Sunni. The Ministry of Oil was given to Hussein Shahristani, a
high profile member of the Shiite alliance (but not of any of the Shiite
parties) who had previously been considered for the post of Prime Minister.
Obeidi was criticised by some Sunnis because of his participation in the assault
on Falluja, as an army officer, but all three candidates were smoothly approved
by Parliament. The Sunni-nationalist Iraqi Front for National Dialogue remains
however outside the government and complains that the Shiite alliance demanded
that it change its platform in order to be given a 'fair' share of cabinet
posts. Also, Allawi has made openly sceptical statements about the chances of
this government to succeed, despite taking part in it. The current line-up of
the cabinet is 18 ministers of the Shiite alliance plus one independent Shia,
one Shiite Turkoman and one Shiite Kurd, 7 Sunni Kurds (including 1 Islamist), 7
Sunni Arabs (of the Islamic Sunni alliance), 6 secular followers of Allawi and 1
independent Christian.
Bones of contention
In the current political debate, the main bone of contention is the fate of
the factional militias, which the Shiite alliance is planning to incorporate
into the security agencies, a move opposed mainly by the Sunnis. Ethnic
animosity is also set to increase, as the new Oil Minister has made clear that
he will want to handle all oil contracts in Baghdad, a clear challenge to the
Kurdish regional government, which is signing oil contracts directly. Within the
Oil Ministry there is widespread support for this move, not only for political
or ideological reasons, but also on technical grounds. In order to maintain and
develop production, investment in new explorations has to be carefully planned
and this can be done best from the centre, not least because of the lack of
experienced personnel in the regions.
Apart from ethnic animosity, however, one more threat to stability is emerging
in the form of the decreasing internal solidity of the main political blocks.
The Shiite alliance is ever more divided, with the Al Fadhila party, which is
strong in Basra province, toying with ideas of local autonomy after failing to
receive much in terms of cabinet posts at the national level, where it had eyed
the position of Oil Minister. The Fadhila party controls the oil protection
militias in the south and has been issuing threats to stop production if its
demands are not met and some violence has already occurred. Already at present
at least 6,000 barrels of oil are siphoned off each day from the southern oil
fields. Finally, Allawi's alliance is also seeing increasing internal debate,
stimulated by the unhappiness of some of the component groups about the
distribution of the ministerial posts.
Oil plans
Although the appointment of an oil minister is seen by some as a cause for
optimism, the Bush Administration seems increasingly worried by ongoing
developments. Bush himself suggested in June that the Iraqi government set up a
trust to share oil revenue with the whole population. The current ministerial
plans are to approve a new law, which will facilitate foreign investment in the
sector. Oil production shows some signs of increasing, but with significant
fluctuations month on month. In April production reached 2.14 million bpd, but
in May it was back to 1.9 million bpd, of which 1.5 million were exported.
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