FREE GEOPOLITICAL NEWSLETTER

 

For current reports go to EASY FINDER

BELARUS


  

 

In-depth Business Intelligence

Key Economic Data 
 
  2003 2002 2001 Ranking(2003)
GDP
Millions of US $ 17,493 14,304 12,200 76
         
GNI per capita
 US $ 1,590 1,360 1,290 122
Ranking is given out of 208 nations - (data from the World Bank)

Books on Belarus

REPUBLICAN REFERENCE

Area (sq.km)
207,595

Population
10,310,520

Principal ethnic groups
Belarusians 77.9%
Russians 13.2%
Poles 4%

Capital
Minsk

Currency
Rubel 
(Belarusian Rouble)

President
Alexander Lukashenka


Update No: 300 - (01/01/06)

Lukashenka on the skids?
There is no doubt but that Belarus is at a critical moment in its history. The Orange Revolution in Ukraine, coming after the Rose Revolution in Georgia, has changed everything. There is a new electricity in the air.
The key is that a massive question mark has been put over the fate of the lugubrious thug of a president, Alexander Lukashenka. People are beginning to feel that his days might just be numbered. Many are ardently hoping that they are, which he knows full well. He is a pariah on the world stage, against whom a global campaign is now under way to remove him. 
He is standing for re-election this year, which he confidently predicts he will win. He almost certainly will; but by the most dubious methods, which may not be so easy to get away with as in the past. People's patience is wearing out and their honour is at stake. If the Georgians and Ukrainians can rid themselves of their Soviet-style left-overs, why not the Belarussians too?

Back to Russia?

Actually, there are several reasons why not. Lukashenka has a security apparatus of 150,000 KGB operatives, ready to smash any opposition. He was the only member of parliament in 1991 to vote against independence, which he would have liked to reverse. He has supporters still in the countryside, where he was once the head of a collective farm as was his father - electively the communist aristocracy, a collective farm perhaps being as big as a county elesewhere.
He would not go quietly like Shevardnadze in Georgia or Akayev in Kyrgyzstan, while there is no obvious opposition leader, unlike in both of them. Lukashenka is a far nastier bit of work than either of them, a true tyrant. He would mount a bloodbath rather than yield
Meanwhile, the Kremlin has a very strong vested interest in keeping Lukashenka in place. He may be a scoundrel, but he is their scoundrel, ardently committed to joining Belarus to Russia. Belarus is the last ex-Soviet republic that retains close connections to Moscow. Russia accounts for over 68 per cent of its imports and 50 per cent of exports. Two of the most important gas pipelines from Russia to Germany, whose capacity of 42 billion cubic metres per year accounts for most of Germany's gas imports, run through Belarus: the Jamal and the Northern Lights pipelines.
If Belarus were to distance itself from Moscow and seek closer ties to the West, this would have consequences for Russia's economy and leadership of the CIS. Russia's economic and political weight in Europe as a whole would be dramatically reduced. At the same time, trade possibilities for "new Europe," that is, those Eastern European countries that stand closest to the US, would increase outside of Russia. Both are considered important aims of American foreign policy.

US backs the opposition
It is therefore no surprise that the United States has supported the pro-West opposition for years, both financially and logistically. In the 2001 presidential election in Belarus, private and government organisations and foundations from the US and other Western countries handed out, according to the German daily Junge Welt, US$40 million to the election campaign of opposition candidate Vladimir Gontscharik, a figure to be taken 'advisedly' which might err for purposes of propaganda.
According to official figures from Belarus, which again might just be propaganda, US$24 million has already flowed from US coffers into the pockets of the opposition for the 2006 election. Although difficult to confirm, the Russian newspaper Rian Novosti reported that most of the opposition groups and media are financed from the US.
One can find numerous web sites of organisations that have connections to the Otpor group and its partners, including those who support the opposition in Belarus. Many of these groups, such as the "Students for Global Democracy" (SfGD), have connections to semi-government organisations in the US. The SfGD is currently collecting donations for its "Bell Campaign" to fund the Belarus opposition.
The oppressed Belarus offshoot of Otpor, Zubr, whose motto is "Honour, Motherland, Freedom," also has the support of the US. In April of this year, Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, met personally with representatives of the group in the Lithuanian city of Vilnius. Rice explained that the meeting served to help the organisation achieve more freedom. She said the president of Belarus should understand that his behaviour was being monitored very closely. Representatives of the opposition then declared that, according to their assessment, irregularities would occur in the 2006's election and that they are already planning demonstrations.
US President Bush has made it clear on many occasions that he would welcome a change in government in Belarus.

« Top

AIR DEFENCE

Belarus to receive Russian air defence systems in March 


The first batch of S-300 air defence systems will be delivered from Russia to Belarus in March 2006, the secretary of the Belarusian Security Council said recently, Ria Novosti reported. 
Gennady Nevyglas said he had discussed the issue with his Russian counterpart, Igor Ivanov. According to Nevyglas, deliveries will be made throughout next year and Belarus planned to form two S-300 divisions, which, according to previous media reports, means Belarus will have 24 complexes by the end of the year. The Belarusian official said the complexes would cover the country's western regions, doubling the army's capability to destroy targets

« Top

ENERGY

Gazprom to supply 21 bcm of gas to Belarus in 2006 

Belarussian Prime Minister, Sergei Sidorsky, reported to Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenka, on the completion of negotiations with Russian gas giant OAO Gazprom, which has agreed to supply the republic with 21 billion cubic metres of gas in 2006 at US$46.69 per 1,000 cubic metres, sources in the presidential press service said recently, Interfax News Agency reported.
The sources said that "this contract with Beltransgaz details the rules for transporting Russian gas outside our country." "Belarus will meet its obligations in full and the planned joint program with Gazprom will be successfully implemented this year," the press service said. In particular, the service said that major infrastructure has been launched - two compressor stations, that will make it possible to transport additional volume through Belarus via the Yamal-Europe pipeline, and through the Beltransgaz domestic pipeline network.

« Top

FOREIGN LOANS

Ministry gets permission to raise US$34m loan 

The Belarussian Finance Ministry has received permission from the president to raise its first syndicated loan from Western commercial banks, the finance ministry said, Interfax News Agency reported, citing a presidential decree of November 22. 
According to the decree, the ministry has been instructed to hold talks on a draft credit agreement and has been given the authority to sign it. Austria's Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich AG, Russia's Vneshtorgbank (VTB) and Belarussia's Priorbank will be the lead organisers of the US$34 million syndicated loan. The loan will be extended for one year with the possibility of extending it for another year. It is expected that 12 Western banks will join the syndicate.

Fradkov OKs draft deal on extending loan to Belarus 

Russian Prime Minister, Mikhail Fradkov, has approved a draft intergovernmental agreement on extending a US$146 million loan to Belarus, the Russian government press service said recently, Interfax News Agency reported.
Fradkov instructed the Finance Ministry "to hold negotiations with Belarus and, upon reaching an agreement, sign a deal on behalf of the Russian government, with the authority to make amendments of a non- radical nature," the instruction said.

« Top

 

« Back

 


 
Published by 
Newnations (a not-for-profit company)
PO Box 12 Monmouth 
United Kingdom NP25 3UW 
Fax: UK +44 (0)1600 890774
enquiries@newnations.com