|
Books on Pakistan
REPUBLICAN REFERENCE
Area (sq.km)
803,940
Population
162,419,946
Capital
Islamabad
Currency
Pakistani rupee
President
Pervez Musharraf
|
Update No: 010 - (28/11/06)
ADB promotes Pakistani economic management
The ADB now project GDP growth at 7% for the current year (which ends March
2007). This would represent a modest acceleration from the previous year, when
GDP grew at 6.6%. In part this acceleration would be due to a recovery of the
agricultural sector, which was hurt by a drought last year and is now expected
to see 4.5% growth, as opposed to 2.5% last year. Not all crops are expected to
be doing well, with cotton in particular suffering from heavy rains. However,
the main factor of accelerating growth is expected to be the industrial sector,
which should reach 9% growth from 5.9% last year. The weakest performance is
expected to come from the services sector, which should slow from 8.8% last year
to 7.1% this year. The Bank sees last year's increase in investment continuing
this year, particularly in the textiles, cement and fertilizer, but with
construction and energy also doing well. Foreign investment is expected to boost
growth in the oil and gas sectors. Even within the services sector there will be
areas of strong growth, such as telecommunications and banking. To complete a
positive economic outlook, inflation is expected to decline to 6.5% from 8% last
year, based on the stabilisation of oil prices, the stagnation of agricultural
prices due to increased production and a tight monetary policy. Tax receipts,
traditionally a weak spot in Pakistani economic policies, are also expected to
grow significantly this year, not only because of strong GDP growth, but also
because of a series of measures taken by the government, such as the taxation of
real estate transactions and higher rates on some financial services. There are
however expected to be negative sides too in Pakistan's economic performance
this year. The ADB still sees inflation as higher than it should be. Moreover,
the current account deficit is seen as growing further to 5.9% of GDP, from 4.4%
last year. The trade balance will be deeper into red too, at 7%. Finally, power
shortages are emerging as a significant constraint on the economy.
Rape not so easy anymore
Usually, Pakistani politics lag behind the economy. In November however a
major development was the approval by the lower house of parliament of the
amendment of the Hodood Ordnances, which abolishes the requirement of four male
witnesses to prove a rape case. The law still has to be approved by the senate,
but if it is, in the future the standard evidentiary procedures will be applied
to cases of rape. The amendment, supported by Musharraf himself, has been hailed
by secular elements as a major victory and has caused strong protests by the
Islamists, even if as a pacifying concession the latter were allowed to
introduce a law which considers sex between unmarried partners a crime.
Shaky brinkmanship
Part of Pakistan's political trouble is certainly self-inflicted. After some
signals that relations with India were improving earlier this year, the two
countries are back to confrontation, with Pakistan taking the lead. On 15
November Islamabad tested a nuclear-capable medium range missile, soon followed
by India's own test of a similar device. More worryingly for Pakistan,
brinkmanship in managing extremist movements as a foreign politics tools
increasingly shows its limitations and dangers. The Waziristan deal, hailed as
the solution to turmoil in the North-west Frontier Province, appeared to be
thrown in question by the suicide attack on an army recruitment centre, which
killed 42 recruits. The attack was in response to an American-inspired raid
against a radical madrasa a week earlier, in which 80 students had died.
Managing both Washington expectations and a strongly anti-American public
opinion is proving an increasingly difficult task for Islamabad.
« Top
|
