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Books on Bosnia & Herzegovina
REPUBLICAN REFERENCE
Area (sq.km)
51,129
Population
4,007,608
Capital
Sarajevo
Currency
Convertible Mark
President
Borislav Paravac
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Update No: 114 - (28/11/06)
An Extended Engagement for EU Peacekeepers
The European Union postponed the decision on reducing its peacekeeping forces
(known as EUFOR) in Bosnia-Herzegovina in November, saying the matter will be
discussed again in December. However, the Bosnian forces -- which are ethnically
segregated and more like police -- cannot even fight crime, let alone keep
order.
Negotiations on merging the Bosnian forces into a single state unit have
stalled, with the Serbs refusing to merge or allow any other ethnicity to patrol
their mini-state. Thus, EUFOR's withdrawal preparations are wavering. Bosnia is
simply not ready to handle its own security, or its own government, without the
supervision of the United Nations and EUFOR -- and the international community
knows it.
Analysis
The European Union has postponed the decision on reducing its peacekeeping
forces (known as EUFOR) in Bosnia-Herzegovina, saying the matter will be
discussed again in December. The European Union had been considering cutting its
contingent from 6,000 troops to 1,500 in 2007 as Bosnia-Herzegovina transfers
from U.N. supervision to its own government. Withdrawal preparations are
wavering, however, as negotiations on restructuring Bosnia's security force are
stalled once again and political instability is brewing within Bosnia itself and
the region as a whole.
Under the Dayton Accords of 1995, Bosnia was delicately arranged under three
governments and supervised by the U.N. high representative for Bosnia. The
country is split along ethnic lines -- between the Muslim Bosniac-Croat
Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Serbian Republic of Srpska. Each
has its own government and constitution, yet both are governed by a central
government consisting of a parliament and a tri-presidency that rotates among
Bosnia's three ethnic groups. However, the U.N. high representative has the
final say in any government decision and can dismiss any government member. The
United Nations plans to hand over supervision to the central government, not to
the mini-states' governments -- a point of contention for the Republic of Sprska
-- in 2007, and those mini-states' government agencies are to be dissolved
Discord among concord
Adding to the confusion, each ethnic group also has its own police force,
though the Bosniac and Croat forces recently merged under the federation (but
only on paper, for each still patrols its own ethnic territory). The forces --
which are nothing more than police -- only patrol their own mini-states and have
the reputation of not being able to even fight crime, let alone keep order in
the region. The European Union aims to reorganize the police forces so Bosnia
will have a statewide police service and all of its ethnically based regional
forces will be abolished -- two developments the European Union and United
Nations want to see. The Serbs have firmly said however they will not give up
their own police forces, nor allow the other ethnic forces to patrol their
mini-state. Bosnian Serb Prime Minister Milorad Dodik has said, "If we have
to choose between the European Union and the police of Republic of Srpska, we
will choose Republic of Srpska." U.N. High Representative for Bosnia
Christian Schwarz-Schilling has said that a united police force plan must be
agreed on by Nov. 20. That date is right around the corner, and neither side is
budging.
Bosnia is not ready to stand on its own politically, either. Under the United
Nations and EUFOR, Bosnia's three ethnic groups have been relatively peaceful --
but then the country is segregated and full of international peacekeepers. In
the elections for all three governments Oct. 1, three nationalists were elected
to the Bosnian tri-presidency. This is the government to which the United
Nations -- after controlling Bosnia for 11 years -- will turn the country over
in 2007. The elected representatives to the tri-presidency have very different
ideas on the future of Bosnia. Bosniac President Haris Silajdzic and Croat
President Ivo Miro Jovic both want the unification of Bosnia. This would
dissolve the mini-state governments and leave the central administration to
govern the country as a whole. Bosnian Serb President Nebojsa Radmanovic has
threatened to hold a referendum for the Republic of Srpska's independence should
Bosnia move toward unification, for unification would see the other two
ethnicities governing the Serbs two-thirds of the time. Many Croat leaders have
said that if the Serbs exit Bosnia-Herzegovina, the Croats would rethink their
position in the country. An exit by the Croats would split the country's Muslim
populations in half, leaving Bosnia where it was before the Yugoslav wars in
1992.
To add to an already tense situation, complications are rising from
Bosnia-Herzegovina's neighbour, Serbia, which is facing its own fracturing with
Kosovo's impending independence. The United Nations suspended a decision on
Kosovo's fate Oct. 19 in order to allow Serbia to hold elections Jan. 21. The
upcoming Serbian elections are a race between the moderates (relatively
speaking) and the ultranationalists who are determined to not let Kosovo go.
Bosnian Foreign Minister Mladen Ivanic -- a Serb -- said Nov. 13 that if Kosovo
gains independence from Serbia, it could lead to unpredictable consequences for
other regions (referring to Srpska's calls for independence). Kosovo's
independence could not only lead Srpska to push for independence, it also could
lead Srpska to try to unify with ethnically related Serbia.
One bright spot in this Balkan mess is that the European Union is not oblivious
to the situation. French Defense Minister Michele Alliot-Marie said the union
must make sure it has enough troops in the region and the ability to bring in
more forces quickly if Bosnia becomes unstable or if instability spills over
from Kosovo. The German Cabinet reversed an earlier decision to withdraw its 850
peacekeeping troops by the end of 2006, saying the forces will remain for at
least another year. Berlin did take steps toward a future withdrawal, cutting
the number of troops Germany can send to Bosnia from 3,000 to 2,400. The United
States plans to withdraw by the end of 2006, and the United Kingdom plans to
move its troops out by spring 2007. The U.S. withdrawal is not really
significant -- only 220 U.S. troops are stationed in Bosnia, and they are
separate from the other troop divisions, patrolling Sarajevo only -- but this is
not to say the United States is not setting up its own safeguards. Washington is
currently building a large embassy capable of housing "substantial"
amounts of people and equipment in the centre of Sarajevo, just in case.
The EU could draw down troops in 2007 before the transfer of power from the
United Nations to the Bosnian government, but it will maintain enough of a troop
presence to keep the order and maintain the ability to rapidly deploy forces to
enforce stability in the region as a whole. It would not be surprising if both
the EUFOR and U.N. withdrawal deadlines were both postponed further -- if not
indefinitely -- as tensions escalate among the players within Bosnia and the
Balkan region.
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BANKING
Serbian Komercijalna Banka opens new offices
Belgrade-based Komercijalna Banka plans to open 10 new offices in Bosnia,
including Sarajevo, by the end of the year, Bosnian Finance Minister Mladjan
Dinkic said, Italian news agency ANSA reported.
Dinkic said that Komercijalna, which began operating in Bosnia on September
26th, plans to open 14 more offices in the country in 2007. Komercijalna Banka's
Bosnian subsidiary, Komercijalna Banka Banjaluka, is a joint venture with the
Belgrade Foreign Trade Insurance and Financing Fund. The former holds 19,999
shares, while the latter has just one.
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ENERGY
136th country to ratify global ban on nuclear testing
Bosnia-Herzegovina is the 136th country to ratify the global ban on nuclear
testing, the Vienna-based Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organisation (CTBTO)
said on November 7th, New Europe reported.
Bosnia formally deposited the ratification documents with the United Nations on
October 26, to become the 21st country in Eastern European region to ratify the
treaty. The treaty bans all nuclear weapons tests and nuclear-related
explosions.
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FOREIGN INVESTMENT
US investors showing more interest in Bulgaria
Interest among US investors in Bulgaria is growing, US ambassador to Bulgaria,
John Beyrle, told Sofia news agency.
DSK Bank and US Investment and Market Development (IMD) signed a memorandum of
agreement, aimed at facilitating the implementation of US investment projects in
Bulgaria. The document was signed by DSK CEO, Violina Marinova, and IMD managing
partner, Ivan Drenovichki.
Projects are to be implemented in several key sectors such as tourism,
agriculture, infrastructure, transport and energy. The terms of cooperation and
financing for the separate projects will be agreed on a case-by-case basis, the
signatories said. DSK Bank will help in the selection of investments and ensure
acceptable risk profiles of the project loans. According to Beyrle, US
investments in Bulgaria would double this year compared to investments in 2005.
He recently visited the Rousse region and said he wanted the area to attract
future US investments.
31m Euro in EBRD funds for SMES, industrial schemes
The EBRD is planning to sign, by the end of the year, two contracts worth a
total 31 million Euro for Bosnia's SMEs and industrial schemes, Italian news
agency ANSA reported.
A total 20 million Euro will be used to support SMEs, while 11 million Euro will
be channelled toward industrial development in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
According to the Italian Foreign Trade Institute ICE in Sarajevo, the first
contract refers to a credit line for development of SMEs through Raiffeisenbank,
while the second funding will go to paper mill Natron Hayat in Maglaj.
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