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Books on Pakistan
REPUBLICAN REFERENCE
Area (sq.km)
803,940
Population
162,419,946
Capital
Islamabad
Currency
Pakistani rupee
President
Pervez Musharraf
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Update No: 006 - (27/07/06)
Growing isolation
After several months of steady progress in Indo-Pakistani relations, the 11
July Mumbai bombings resulted in the suspension of Indo-Pakistani dialogue, with
India accusing Pakistan of involvement through the Kashmiri radical groups which
it supports. At the same time, both NATO and the UN have raised the level of
their criticism of Pakistan's unwillingness to confront the insurgent groups
which operate in Afghanistan from Pakistani territory, in a move which is quite
unusual of both organisation and clearly expresses their concern at the growing
level of violence in Afghanistan. In July, Secretary of State Rice paid a visit
to Islamabad, presumably to discuss these issues. A sign that the Bush
Administration is far from ready to dump Musharraf came when it decided to sell
F-16 fighter jets to Pakistan, as Musharraf had earlier requested, but Rice
appears to have delivered some strong message to Musharraf. During the second
half of July the Pakistani security services for the first time appeared to have
made a serious move against the Afghan Taleban, arresting a few of their
mid-rank members of the Taleban in Quetta and even hinting that they might
extradite them.
The internal front gets complicated
Musharraf is also under pressure from the US to let 'free and fair'
elections happen, which most observers judge highly unlikely. He has clearly
been preparing for another round of rigged elections. Since judges select the
magistrates in charge of the elections, Musharraf also took care to purge the
judiciary of hostile elements and replace them with supporters. He also
continues to concentrate most substantial powers in his hands and takes
decisions in consultation with a handful of key advisers, leaving little role to
his ministers, not to speak of the parliament. However, Musharraf has his share
of problems, including the fact that the parties which he has formed to gather
support, the PML-Q and the MMA, are increasingly divided internally. Some
members of the alliance of Islamic parties now say that will not even contest
elections under Musharraf, although Musharraf has been manoeuvring to split the
alliance and marginalise the elements hostile to him. The PML-Q, moreover, is
mostly opposed to Musharraf's own liberal reforms. As if that was not enough, in
recent weeks he faced an unprecedented wave of criticism following a number of
scandals related to the stock exchange, the privatisation program and sugar
shortages caused by the heavy protection afforded to a few sugar-manufacturing
industrialists who happen to be very close to the General. Most ministers have
dubious reputations and several have even been sentenced in the past for graft.
He mostly rules by decree, often suspending the parliament, which in any case is
increasingly perceived as a mere façade. Even when in session, the parliament
is mostly almost empty, with MPs rarely bothering to show up. Finally, the
political parties opposed to Musharraf are becoming more active, after the
alliance of Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, while in Baluchistan, where the
army claims to be defeating the Baluch rebels, even the legal nationalist
parties now threaten to go over to the armed resistance if their demands of
greater autonomy are not met.
Lavish spending pushed deficit south
The latest report of the State Bank of Pakistan shows that the current
account deficit continues to grow and has now reached 4.3% of GDP, mainly due to
massive imports of vehicles and cellular phone sets. Interestingly, out of
US$11.5 billion, about US$250 millions have been spent on the travels of
Musharraf, advisers and cabinet alone, reflecting Musharraf's own carelessness
in this regard. The current government forecast for the 2006-07 fiscal year of a
US$9.6 billion deficit does not appear very realistic, even if a number of
measures to boost exports have been approved.
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