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Books on Syria
REPUBLICAN REFERENCE
Area (sq.km)
185,180
Population
17,585,540
Capital
Damascus
Currency
Syrian pound (SYP)
President
Bashir al-Asad
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Update No: 023 - (03/10/05)
Leveraging On the Murder of Rafiq Hariri to
Put Pressure on Syria
The United States is further marginalizing Syria leveraging on the current
investigation led by UN appointed prosecutor Detlev Mehlis into the murder of
former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri last February 14 in Beirut. Some
analysts believe the pressure is akin to that used in the 1990's against Libya,
to compel a complete turnaround in the regime. That turnaround, presumably,
would involve Syria making far more concessions toward the Golan Heights and
influence over Lebanese political proxy groups such as Hezbollah and Amal, to
give Israel more room for maneuver. The United States needs to show political
progress in the Middle East as the war in Iraq gathers an ever growing number of
critics from both political parties. By forcing Syria's guard down, it will be
easier to start a negotiations process with Israel to discuss a solution to the
Golan and the Palestinian Territories. Indeed, Israeli 'hawks' in the Likud
ruling coalition such as Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz insist they will never
give up the Golan, while Syria insists there can be no separate final peace
deals with the Palestinian Authority over the Occupied Territories, unless the
deal includes the Golan. One of the main reasons for the Syria's reluctance to
leave Lebanon was that it would lose influence in eventual negotiations with
Israel. In Lebanon, Syria could use Hezbollah to maintain pressure on Israel.
The Hariri murder was the pivot around which the United States intensified
pressure on Syria to move out of Lebanon.
The United States is mounting a campaign similar to the one of the early spring
and late winter of 2005 against Syria, without necessarily using sanctions. On
the Iraqi front, there is the ever present complaint of foreign fighters
crossing the border. The US proxy leadership in Iraq issues monthly criticisms
of Syria over this issue and in September the United States also tried to get
Turkey involved. Turkish sources said that Hadley and Secretary of State Aide
for Public Diplomacy, Karin Hughes, who were in Ankara in late September,
conveyed an American demand to Turkey as regards a scenario to change the regime
in Syria. Turkish sources also said that Erdogan and Gol warned Hadley not to
interfere in changing of the Syrian regime affirming, "?Ankara knows very
well the characteristics of the Syrian regime. In addition, Ankara always
advises Syrians to realize democracy." It should be noted that Syria and
Turkey have had very close relations over the past two years, also involving
joint infrastructure projects over water and electricity. Both countries,
moreover, share a similar concern over the federalist tendency of the new Iraqi
constitution, which would give more autonomy to Iraqi Kurdistan, raising
separatist tension among the Kurds in Syria and Turkey.
As ad Snubbed at UN General Assembly - (he did not even go)
The first visible sign of the new isolation of the Syrian regime came when
Syrian President Basher al-Asad cancelled his planned trip to attend the United
Nations summit in New York in mid-September at the last minute amid clear
indications that he would not be welcome in the United States. Meanwhile,
leading figures of the Lebanese opposition, who called for Syria's pullout last
spring, received a warm welcome, which could not have been better conceived to
convey the message of the United States to Damascus. Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice hosted a multilateral gathering in support of Lebanon featuring
UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan and the foreign ministers of Britain, France,
and Russia, among others. They agreed to sponsor an international donor
conference for Lebanon in November and encourage Lebanese domestic reforms while
furthering Syria's international isolation.
The Mehlis Investigation Helping the US Cause
in Syria
The renewed impetus of US pressure is impelled by the fact that some of his
closest regime colleagues could be implicated in the final UN report into the
assassination of Rafiq Hariri. In other words, the Hariri murder investigation
is helping to destabilize the Syrian regime. In late September, Detlev Mehlis,
the German prosecutor leading the UN investigation commission, traveled to
Damascus to interview several senior Syrian military intelligence officers who
were serving in Lebanon when Mr. Hariri was killed. In August, Mehlis' inquiry
already led to the arrest of four pro-Syrian Lebanese intelligence and security
chiefs were arrested last month on suspicion of involvement in the
assassination. The investigator, German prosecutor Detlev Mehlis, is drawing on
debriefings from one or more defectors from the regime of Syrian President
Bashar Asad. The defectors have provided evidence of Syrian government
complicity in Hariri's death, according to two U.S. officials. There is a
widespread concern that should Mehlis' report, which is expected toward the end
of October, implicate senior Syrian officials, it could lead to UN sanctions and
the severing of Syria's diplomatic relations with Europe as well as the United
States. It would indeed be almost a repeat of the sanctions and international
isolation of Libya in the 1990's. Unlike, Col. Qadhafi however, there are doubts
as to the power and influence of Basher al-Asad to maintain a grip on power and
keep opposition forces at bay.
Meanwhile, Bush's national security team was due to meet Saturday, October 1 to
review its options in Syria, which range from tougher economic sanctions to
limited military action. However, despite the repeated accusations - the latest
offered by the US "ambassador" to Iraq and after Khalilzad to the
effect that the patience of the United States is running out - not everyone in
the US administration necessarily believes Syria has direct involvement in
favoring the passage of foreign fighters in Iraq to back the Iraqi resistance or
insurgence. Syria has repeatedly denied this, while the CIA and Defense
Intelligence Agency have reported that the evidence against Syria is
inconclusive. There is also the concern that a toppled Asad regime - secular and
centralizing - offers undesirable political options. Therefore, even limited
military action now, say observers, could destabilize or even topple Asad's
government, with no good replacement at hand. Former CIA analyst Flynt Everett
says the Bush administration has "…an undeclared posture of `regime
change' on the cheap". He notes that the administration hopes to topple
Asad without resorting to a costly invasion as in Iraq. Setting aside the
military option, the United States will likely press for more sanctions on
Syria, as part of the 2003 Syria Accountability Act and reaching out to Syrian
opposition groups. The United States might even consider limited military action
to stop the flow of insurgents - if this is actually occurring, as reports from
Iraq suggest the number of foreign fighters in the insurgency is very small and
the great majority of suicide bombers in particular, are held to be Saudi young
men from across the very long Saudi border with Iraq. For the time being, the
Mehlis investigation is playing into the United States' plan to isolate Syria,
and impetuous military strikes or threats could break this momentum and
potential international consensus on pressuring the Baathist leadership in
Syria.
Russia to the Aid?
Perhaps fearing some form of international isolation, in September Syria
tried to secure new armament and military training agreements with Russia. The
Syrian army's chief-of-staff General Ali Habib went on a four-day visit to
Moscow to upgrade Syria's arsenal and strengthen defense cooperation with Russia
already sold short-range surface to air missiles to Syria for defense purposes.
Habib met Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov last September 27 to discuss
"maintenance and modernization of Syrian military equipment by Russian
experts, the training of Syrian military in Russian military academies and
potential purchases of Russian weapons," as noted in a Russian defense
ministry statement. The Syrian general agreed to buy ammunition and visited a
weapons factory specializing in high-precision anti-tank rockets in Tula region
south of Moscow on Tuesday. The factory is Russia's seventh largest arms
exporter and produces small arms, "active armored" systems and Kornet-E
anti-tank missiles. Habib was also said to have talked to officials from
Rosoboronexport, the official Russian body charged with arms exports.
Russo-Syrian military cooperation will also include more opportunities for
Syrian officers to study at Russian military academies. The meetings also
"examined deliveries to Syria of advanced Russian weapons, the updating of
weapons and hardware of Soviet and Russian production, with which the Syrian
army is equipped," said the Itar-Tass news agency.
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ENERGY
INA teams up with Syria's Petrol, Gas
Croatian oil company INA has inked a long-term agreement on the sale of gas to
the Syrian Petroleum Company and the Syrian Gas Company, the Croatian news
agency Hina reported, citing INA in a statement.
The gas was discovered in the research bloc Hayan northeast of Damascus,
covering an area of 5,000 square kilometres. INA holds a 100 per cent concession
in the area. The company said the deal marks the start of joint work of INA and
the two Syrian companies on putting the discovered oil and gas field into
operation.
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