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Books on Syria
REPUBLICAN REFERENCE
Area (sq.km)
185,180
Population
17,585,540
Capital
Damascus
Currency
Syrian pound (SYP)
President
Bashir al-Asad
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Update No: 018 - (03/05/05)
Syria has left Lebanon
On April 28, after a brief ceremony, the last 300 Syrian soldiers in Lebanon
crossed the border into Syria. The muted ceremony, in the Lebanese army base of
Rayak, was attended by head of Syrian intelligence in Lebanon Rustom Ghazaleh
and the Syrian Army Chief of Staff Ali Habib, among other Syrian and Lebanese
officials. However, the low-key event masked what has been a very significant
presence, for better or worse. Syrian troops arrived in Lebanon 29 years ago, on
May 31, 1976 at the behest of the international community (and Henry Kissinger)
to prevent the ultimate defeat of the right wing Maronite Christian militias in
the civil war that started in 1975 between progressive secularists, Muslim
militias - Sunni and later Shiite - and the PLO. There were fears that the war
might cause regional instability extending to Syria itself as well as the Middle
East in general. However, Damascus' intervention only managed to control the
first phase of a much wider civil war that would result after the Israeli
invasion of 1982 (there was a previous Israeli invasion in 1978), and the
radicalization of the Shiite community from the Amal movement to Hizbollah. That
war, after causing over 150,000 deaths would only end in 1990, thanks to the
Taif accords that re-distributed the balance of power prior to the civil war in
a more or less similar way but in such a way as to account for the
ethno-demographic realities that had the Shiite community as the most numerous.
Lebanon's semi-democracy had been founded along ethnic lines after independence,
based on an assumption that Christians outnumbered Sunnis and Shiites. The
international community, Washington included, also welcomed the Taif accords and
the role that Syria would play to enforce them in Lebanon. Damascus had at one
time up to 40,000 troops in Lebanon to guarantee stability. Before the April
re-deployment, there were 14,000 Syrian troops.
The famous military road that joined Syria and Lebanon avoiding the need to pass
through the regular border was closed shortly after the military trucks,
featuring pictures of president Bashir al-Asad, reached the Syrian side. Syrian
troops used this road regularly, though, reportedly, so did big league
smugglers, who did not appreciate the potential attention at the regular border.
On the subject of smuggling and goods exchange, there are rumors that the free
exchange of goods across the border will soon be terminated. The Lebanese army
will now have the task of safeguarding the Beqaa valley. The valley was once
flowering with hashish plants. Over the next few months, other relationships
between the two independent countries that were united until shortly before the
Second World War will have to be redefined, beyond the more discussed
geo-political issues. Lebanon has long acted as a sort of Hong Kong for Syrian
businessmen interested in having greater access to the global market,
particularly in terms of trade financing and banking services. However, many
Syrians, up to 700,000 also work in Lebanon in less glamorous jobs. There are
rumors that the escalating Syro-Lebanese tensions in recent months have also
generated their own peculiar form of racism provoking 20 deaths.
As the last soldier crossed the border, the Syrian foreign affairs minister
Faruq Al Shara, sent a missive to UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, who is
responsible fro relaying the report to the UN Security Council concerning UN
resolution 1559 (concerning the retreat of Syrian troops from Lebanon and the
disarmament of the Lebanese and Palestinian resistance) indicating that, Syrian
troops had completed their retreat as agreed; indeed, they completed the retreat
2 days in advance of the April 30 deadline. Shara also stressed Syria's role in
rebuilding the Lebanese army according to a multi-confessional and multi-ethnic
logic. Shara also reminded the international community that there are many
pending UN resolutions in the Middle East and that the Security Council should
see to it that compliance with these is encouraged with the same steadfast
determination, as was the case with 1559. Notably, Shara, stressed resolutions
concerning the "complete re-deployment of Israeli troops from the Golan
Heights, from the Lebanese Sheba farms, from the Occupied Palestinian
Territories along the lines of June 4, 1967, as well as ensuring a respect for
the inalienable rights of the Palestinian people". Syria's advanced timing
on compliance with resolution 1559 avoids potential censure from the United
States and France - the resolution sponsors. Kofi Annan himself is said to have
encouraged this while postponing a report on the resolution to the Security
Council by a week angering the Bush administration. Syrian President Bashir Al-Asad
also attended the funeral of John Paul II at the Vatican, in itself an
apparently non-newsworthy event given the wide attention given to the occasion,
but a significant one in reinforcing the view that Syria is not a 'rogue state',
and that it abides by international rules.
Who is next?
In the next few months, the questions of 'who will be next' and 'what will
become of the Asad regime' will be increasingly addressed. The western, and
particularly the US and Israeli, rhetoric concerning Lebanon since the murder of
former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri would have us believe that the
occupation of Lebanon by Syrian troops was the only such occupation in the
region. Syria was the last remaining bully that needed to be defeated in order
to achieve an idyllic state of affairs. News of the completion of the Syrian
retreat was hailed by the Western press, and politicians, spoke, seemingly
unaware of their hypocritical tones and attitude suggesting that Lebanon is free
to pursue self-determination and democracy. The American media followed suit
with such publications as the New York Post presenting the retreat as some sort
of monumental victory for freedom. While the Arab world is generally pleased
that Syria has complied so swiftly with resolution 1559, taking away an excuse
for an escalation of US rhetoric and potential military action against Syria by
the United States, Arab media, has focused on the issue of 'who will retreat
next ?' Arab commentators argue that the international community's failure to
cite Israeli Occupation of Palestine merely exacerbates the "wound",
and wonder aloud whether Syria's compliance with UNSC Resolution 1559 will be
followed by Israeli compliance of 242 and 338. The commentators are expressing
merely milder concerns of the Arab street, which is asking why Syria and 1559
and not Israel and 242. The concerns are highlighted by the fact that despite
the promised Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, Prime Minster Sharon and
President Bush continue to highlight the difficulties and unpractical aspects of
dismantling Jewish settlements in the West Bank and Occupied East Jerusalem.
Bush and Sharon are careful to describe the settlements as 'population centers'.
Therefore, while the Syrian retreat is being widely celebrated, the US censured
Syrian government, having abided by the demands of Resolution 1559, has actually
refocused the international pressure - deflected onto Syria since the Hariri
assassination - on Israel the remaining hold-out on UNSC resolutions and the
United States in Iraq.
As for president Asad himself, we have previously speculated that the retreat
from Lebanon would be widely considered as a defeat at worse and an
embarrassment at best. The young Asad has played a skillful hand in dealing with
the Lebanese situation by removing the object of American attention, if only
temporarily, but he will have to deal with Ba'ath party hardliners, who will
emphasize the fact that Syria has lost an important negotiating card in an
eventual Arab - Israeli peace process. The forthcoming elections in Lebanon
might well produce a government less sympathetic to Syria, and one more willing
to negotiate a separate peace with Israel. Therefore, the Ba'ath party may yet
decide to replace Bashir al-Asad, the British educated Ophthalmologist - and
never his father Hafez' first choice as successor - with a more ideological and
uncompromising leader such as General Asaf Shaukat, head of intelligence and
Assad's brother-in-law, or the president's own brother, Maher Asad.
Nevertheless, Russian President Putin, who visited Israel and the Occupied
territories at the end of April and just as Syria was completing its
re-deployment from Lebanon, contributed to add pressure on Israel when he
confirmed that Russia would sell SA-18 missiles to Syria. The missiles will make
it more difficult for Israeli warplanes to indeed bomb alleged militant training
bases outside Damascus, as they did on Oct. 5, 2003, and triumphantly
"buzz" one of Syrian President Bashar Asad's palaces. Putin noted that
the short-range Strelets missiles would "complicate" the ability of
Israeli pilots to fly at low-level over Syrian President Bashar al-Asad's palace
in Damascus, as they did in a triumphed show of force in 2003. Finally, Putin
said that the anti-aircraft missiles being sold 'cannot reach Israeli
territory" sarcastically adding, "To come within their range, you have
to attack Syria. Do you want to do that?"
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