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In-depth Business Intelligence
Books on Iraq
REPUBLICAN REFERENCE
Area (sq.km)
437,072
Population
24,001,816 (July 2002 est.)
Capital
Baghdad
Currency
Iraqi dinar (IQD)
President
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Update No: 022 - (22/02/05)
End of secular Iraq?
The Iraqi elections of January 2005 were successful in general terms, but
disappointed many. The only real winners were the Kurdish alliance, which took
75 seats and went very close to fulfilling its electoral potential. The Shiite
list sponsored by Ayatollah Al-Sistani was the official winner of these
elections, but its 48% fell somewhat short of the expectations of its promoters
and denied the full legitimisation that would have derived by a 50+% victory.
The Allawi list, with under 14%, failed to gain enough votes to prevent the
Shiite religious list from having a majority in parliament, even if their
majority remains quite thin (140 seats out of 275). All the other parties failed
to achieve much, especially the secular ones. An obvious conclusion to be drawn
is that Iraq's long-standing secular traditions are a thing of the past. Much of
Allawi's votes appeared to be due to the approval of some Shiite voters for his
tough approach and was not necessarily meant to signify support for a secular
regime. The Kurds, who were betting to strengthen their own position with a good
performance of some secular parties, such as the Communists, with whom they
entertain good relations, look now rather isolated despite their electoral
performance.
Negotiating a new cabinet
Soon after the announcement of the results, negotiations started towards the
formation of the new cabinet. Both Allawi, the Kurds and several members of the
Shiite list claimed the position, but it soon appeared obvious that one of the
leaders of the Shiite religious parties which make up the unified list would get
the job. As the end of February approached, that man looked increasingly likely
to be Jaffari, the leader of the main Shiite party, Dawat. If this was to be
confirmed, the outcome would represent a disappointment for the Bush
administration, who having failed to get Allawi enough votes to get the job,
would now see their second best choice, Adel Abd al-Mahdi, pushed aside too.
Although Al-Mahdi also belongs to a religious Shiite party, he is widely seen as
more cooperative with the occupation authorities than Jaffari. He even supported
the privatisation of Iraq's oil industry, which is not a very common attitude in
Iraq. One of the Kurdish leaders, Jalal Talebani, appears likely to become the
next president.
Although both Kurds and Shiites agree that the long-lasting dominance of Arab
Sunnis has to end, they do not necessarily like each other. The Shiite-dominated
United Iraqi Alliance, which will provide the bulk of the next government, has
made it clear that it rejects the clause, included in the Transitional
Administrative Law by the occupation authorities, that grants the Kurdish
minority a veto right over the new Constitution. Many members of the Shiite
alliance who now criticise the clause, had accepted it back in March, a fact
that might point towards a more general "revisionist" attitude that
the United Iraqi Alliance might adopt once in power.
The competition for posts in the new cabinet is very strong and might get even
stronger if the current negotiations of the Coalition with some Sunni insurgent
groups succeeded in convincing them to abandon violent opposition to the central
government. Such groups would have to be rewarded and boosted by visible
appointments.
Security concerns tie economy down
What had been hinted by various sources has now been confirmed: US officials
have now admitted that as much as 25% of all the money spent to rebuilt Iraq
goes to security. The US have pledged US$18.4 billion, but only US$2.9 billion
had been spent by the end of January, although a further US$8 billion had been
allocated.
Security concerns are also forcing the Oil Ministry to adapt to the
circumstances. Despite continuing attacks on the oil infrastructure, the
Ministry plans now to restart exports from Kirkuk in March, after they had been
suspended in December. The Ministry is now switching to a tender system to sell
its oil, which would allow to accumulate oil in the Ceyhan tanks and then sell
it, avoiding the risk of being unable to fulfil contractual obligations in case
of further sabotage.
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