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Books on Syria
REPUBLICAN REFERENCE
Area (sq.km)
185,180
Population
17,585,540
Capital
Damascus
Currency
Syrian pound (SYP)
President
Bashir al-Asad
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Update No: 019 - (31/05/05)
Life after Lebanon
Syria completed its pullout from Lebanon ahead of schedule last April 28. It
was a wise move and bought it some more time in terms of deflecting US
attention; however, US Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice remarked at the end of
May that she was not convinced that Syria had completely pulled out of Lebanon,
because, she maintained, there are still many Syrian intelligence agents in the
country. The comment suggests the United States do not intend to forego the
Syrian question yet, while Lebanon gets ready to hold elections, which could
produce a government more hostile to Syrian interests. The United States also
led an intense military campaign in western Iraq just a few miles away from the
Syrian border with accompanying rumours of an Al-Zarqawi hiding in Syria, and of
foreign fighters gaining facilities to enter Iraq from Syria. This is the
background against which, in June the Syrian Ba'ath party will hold an important
congress outlining President Bashar al-Asad's vision for Syria. There is no
doubting Asad will reassert his government's desire to develop the private
sector, but given the fragile international context, Asad's pronouncements on
political developments will outweigh the importance of potential economic
reforms. Syrians might well have considered the retreat from Lebanon as a
humiliation, while the steadfast demonstrations of hundreds of thousands of
anti-Syrian influence marchers in Beirut, that intensified after the murder of
former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri last February 14, set an example of
dissent that Syrian authorities are no doubt interested to avoid.
Political and Economic Reforms
Just as he pre-empted the United States in fulfilling the demands of UN
resolution 1559 early, Asad will seek to pull some interesting rabbits out of
his political hat at the Ba'ath party congress. Bashar al-Asad, already
responded to the 'Lebanon' provocation by creating "a new Ba'ath Party law
breaking the socialist monopoly over politics in Syria," which the
President will unveil at the forthcoming June congress. It must have the sound
byte strength comparable to Col. Qadhafi's announcement Libya was renouncing its
'weapons of mass destruction program' (it is doubtful that as advanced a program
as is often touted ever really existed). In effect, the real changes do not have
to be substantial, but they must sound and look good on paper. Asad must
pre-empt whatever 'color' or 'tree' named revolution the media might give a
potential grass roots reform movement from gaining ground in Syria. There can be
little doubt that Asad will push an economic reform agenda with little
opposition. Indeed, the reforms are necessary and desirable. It will be much
more difficult, on the other hand, to reform Syria's political system. Asad is
determined and it is believed that he will unveil a significant Constitutional
change removing a reference to the Ba'ath Party as "the leader of
society." He might well face opposition from old guard members, much as say
Mikhail Gorbachev did during his 'Perestroika', who might question the very
legitimacy, and future, of the party that such a change would generate.
There are even suggestions that Asad himself should forego his own membership in
the party, in order to offer the perception that a new era truly has begun. The
latter suggestion may be premature given existing geo-political conditions, but
a reduction of the economic and political domination of the Ba'ath is certainly
in the cards. Such a reduction in influence would likely entail new provisions
allowing political parties to form. Analysts believe the parties will have to be
secular in nature, as non-sectarian politics remains a 'sine-qua-non' of Syrian
politics (having had direct experience in dealing with this formula in Lebanon
since 1976). Asad and much of the Ba'ath leadership belong to the Shiite Alawite
minority, one peculiar to Syria, and religious parties would challenge this
aspect directly undermining the Ba'ath in ways that would make it difficult for
Asad to lead. During the 1980's there were bitter struggles between the Ba'ath
leadership and Sunni fundamentalists such as the Muslim Brotherhood culminating
in a horrific battle in the city of Hama in 1982. Where the Sunni were
emphatically crushed.
Syria probably also fears the influence of seasoned religiously inclined
fighters from Iraq, which is increasingly looking like the training battleground
for subversive fundamentalists that Afghanistan was in the 80's. While the
Ba'ath is secular, Alawite-Sunni tensions have eased thanks to intermarriage.
Both Asad and his brother Maher married Sunni women and are said to be raising
their children as Sunnis. In fact, Sunnis stand to gain from reforms, as the old
merchant families of Aleppo and Damascus will be free to pursue their business
interests again. Many such families fled Syria for Lebanon in the 1960's, or
conducted their affairs from Lebanon. As capitalism, or at least private
business, gains ground the fear is that for those left behind, the rural
families, many of which are Sunni of course. The Ba'ath's new role will be to
protect the interest of these groups.
However, one of the main obstacles to the kind of political reforms that Bashar
al-Asad might have implemented, as he indicated during his first year as
president, remains the intensity of US pressure. During the first six months of
the so-called "Damascus Spring," of 2000-2001, pro-democracy and civil
society leaders appeared to have an outlet for participation in the Ba'ath
party-dominated Syrian society. However, the old Ba'ath guard within Asad's
government has used the outside pressure to justify a conservative stance weary
of reform, which typically (in the West as much as the East) requires
streamlining an entrenched and weary bureaucracy. The US congress and much of
the media uncritically accept the portrayal of Syria as posing a significant
security threat in the Middle East. The Syria Accountability Act passed in 2004
was renewed in early May and while the measures it imposes are not very
noticeable to most Syrians, as US-Syrian trade was very limited to begin with,
it helps to perpetuate a negative image of Syria. Syria is still being accused
of supporting international terrorism and of attempting to destabilize Iraq.
Meanwhile, the US has never formally abandoned its claims that Iraqi weapons
were moved to Syria, claims exaggerated by Secretary of State for Arms Control
John Bolton, who is still being touted as the Bush administration's top choice
for ambassador to the United Nations. Secretary Bolton testified on May 6, 2002
that "Syria has long had a chemical warfare program," without
providing any proof, he even provided specifics asserting that Syria "has a
stockpile of the nerve agent sarin and is engaged in research and development of
the more toxic and more persistent nerve agent VX. Weapons inspectors in Syria
exonerated Syria with a report delivered last April 25 by Charles Duelfer's Iraq
Survey Group. For its part, Syria, weary of the US allegations, has severed
military and intelligence cooperation with the US, as its ambassador to
Washington, Imad Moustapha, announced. The ambassador stressed that Syria had
done all it could to respond to American complaints, including taking steps to
build barriers and add to border patrols.
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