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Books on Syria
REPUBLICAN REFERENCE
Area (sq.km)
185,180
Population
17,585,540
Capital
Damascus
Currency
Syrian pound (SYP)
President
Bashir al-Asad
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Update No: 020 - (01/07/05)
A Syrian spring?
The tenth Ba'ath party congress, and the second during the presidency of
Bashar al-Asad five years ago, has opened the way for a series of reforms
largely aiming to reduce the power of the Ba'ath party itself and, perhaps, even
cautiously lead to the establishment of other parties in the long term. Another
important resolution concerns the curbing of the emergency laws, which should
now be applied only in cases where national security is being directly
threatened. The congress also approved the basis for a partial liberalization of
media and the naturalization of 20,000 or so Kurds. The Congress also announced
the launch of a new economic policy described as a 'social market' entailing a
series of privatisations, while also maintaining government control in strategic
government areas and social welfare programs. For a one-party totalitarian state
like Syria these reforms are significant and it is remarkable that Syria returns
to the reform path while still being threatened by Israel from the south and the
United States to the east. The congress and the reforms it has heralded, also
suggests there is an internal power struggle, and Asad wants to isolate the
conservatives, which would ordinarily have more power in Syria's current
geopolitical position. Indeed, President Bashar al-Assad, who is also the leader
of the ruling Ba'ath party, fired his two Vice-Presidents Abdel-Halim Khaddam
and Mohammed Zouhair Musharaqah shortly after the Congress, and also dismissed
General Bahjat Suleiman, Internal Security Forces Chief in the General
Intelligence Department (state security), who was considered for many years the
strongman of Syria's secret services. These moves seemingly passed unnoticed in
the West and the United States in particular, where Condoleeza Rice and other US
'hawks' have continued to launch the tirade that Syria still maintains a strong
military intelligence operation in Lebanon - hinting that it has also been
behind the assassination of politicians and journalists in Beirut noted for
their Anti-Syrian position.
US pressure not to end any time soon
Syria needed to pre-empt US pressure ever since the swift introduction and
implementation of UN Resolution 1559 demanding Syria's total withdrawal from
Lebanon. Nevertheless, Syria has continued to be under constant pressure from
the United States, and the Ba'ath reforms are unlikely to silence critics. In
fact, Syria has tried to 'accommodate' the United States in several areas. It
has collaborated with US intelligence after the WTC attacks of September 11,
2001, it has subsided the ambitions of the more radical Palestinian groups
easing the transition to the rule of Palestinian Authority president Abu Mazen,
it has also closed the border with Iraq and opened diplomatic sponsored
relations with the US sponsored government in Iraq, it has made numerous offers
to negotiate the Golan Heights and peace with Israel and established very strong
working relationship with Turkey. The United States has had no interest in all
of that. It insists that Syria should abandon any support to any Palestinian
group while leaving the Golan to an unchallenged Israeli rule, and forego its
message of Arab unity - a central aspect of the Ba'ath party.
The US pressure made reforms difficult for Bashar al-Asad and the reformers,
which were challenged by more conservative elements stressing the need to
tighten the reins of power and security. The reforms of the 10th Ba'ath Party
Congress stop short of opening the road to plurality and Article 8 of the Syrian
Constitution will still render the Ba'ath party as the "Lead Party' or
guide. However, the reforms will make a clearer distinction between
administration and party leadership, allowing for more practical solutions.
Moreover, the reforms authorize the emergence of other parties, so long as these
are not based on any religious faith or ethnic affiliation, unlike in Lebanon
for instance. The Muslim Brotherhood will, therefore, continue to have no
official or legal right in the country's politics, nor will Kurdish separatists.
Two communist parties - among seven others, on the other hand, will be allowed
to participate. The economic reforms will provide for a much greater opening to
foreign capital and investment, a vast legal and financial reform to facilitate
the emergence of a free market and private banks - though such reforms have
already been implemented in a more limited manner over the last year - further
privatisations to be backed by a parallel strengthening of social welfare to
absorb the impact of the free market. It's a huge challenge, as one of the main
issues facing Syria, as in many parts of the Arab world, is youth unemployment
and Syria needs to create 250,000 jobs every year. Bashar Al-Asad's message is
strong and directed to this social group. No doubt, Bashar's wife Asma, a former
economist at Deutsche Bank and JP Morgan, has played an influential role in
steering him toward financial reforms and in so doing launching a strong
challenge to president Bush, it seems Syria is the one saying 'Bring it On' now.
And 'bringing it' is what the US would actually like to do considering recent
allegations that, according to the British Defence Weekly, Jane's, US Secretary
of Defence US Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld actually wanted to provoke a
military confrontation with Syria by attacking Hizbollah bases near the Syrian
border in Lebanon. The attack would be launched within the framework of the
often touted; one for all excuse 'war on terrorism' featuring multi-faceted US
attacks in the Bekaa Valley, where most of Syria's occupation forces in Lebanon
were based. Jane's said Washington's aims would presumably have been to pressure
Damascus to end its support for anti-Israel Palestinian groups; persuade Syria
to abandon its weapons of mass destruction, whatever they might be, and to
withdraw its troops from Lebanon; creating the conditions for the ouster of
Syrian leader Bashar Al-Asad; and to eliminate Hizbollah. Having withdrawn from
Lebanon by the end of April, Syria avoided this potential confrontation.
However, with the Lebanese elections over and a victory for the ant-Syrian
coalition (even if Hizbollah - which the US often neglects to mention is an
official political party - has won in the south) the US could have a more
pliable partner in the region and add pressure on Syria from the western front
as well. The election of a conservative president in Iran, which has ties to
Syria and Lebanon's Hizbollah, might also provide additional fuses for the
United States to light and US reactions to the elections were predictable. Some
might say that Iranian voters offered a welcome gift to Washington
neo-conservatives. Therefore, as Syria reforms, the United States can still
produce several excuses to maintain the pressure on Damascus. It will be
interesting to see how well the liberalizing policies and Asad himself will fare
within the Ba'ath. In fact, the US response to the Ba'ath congress and Syria's
reforms was predictably stubborn and 'ideological'. Condoleeza Rice insisted on
the need for Damascus to change, seemingly oblivious to the announced reforms,
while some sources believe Washington ordered US banks to freeze all accounts of
US companies that do business with Syria, alleging "arms are being provided
to Saddam Hussein's followers" from Syria. It would be interesting if they
applied the same sanction in Saudi Arabia, an important source of foreign
fighters & support for the Iraqi insurrection. It also accused Damascus of
being "solely responsible for the region's disorder". Plus ca change,
plus c'est la meme chose.
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