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POLAND


 

 

In-depth Business Intelligence

Key Economic Data 
 
  2003 2002 2001 Ranking(2003)
GDP
Millions of US $ 209,563 187,670 176,300 24
         
GNI per capita
 US $ 5,270 4,570 4,230 71
Ranking is given out of 208 nations - (data from the World Bank)

Books on Poland

REPUBLICAN REFERENCE

Area (sq.km) 
312,685

Population 
38,626,349

Capital
Warsaw

Currency 
Zloty 

President 
Aleksander 
Kwasniewski 

Private sector 
% of GDP 
70%



Update No: 098 - (01/07/05)

Government reconfirmed in office
Prime Minister Marek Belka has finally won the Parliamentary vote of confidence he needed in order for his government to rule. 
The outcome of the vote was 236 votes for 215 against with one abstention, which was pretty close to what pundits had predicted. Just like in the previous confidence vote, the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD), the Labour Union (UP) and the majority of independent deputies supported Belka's government. 
As expected, right-wing parties such as the Civic Platform (PO), Law and Justice (PiS), Polish Family League (LPR), Polish Peasants Party (PSL) and Self-Defense were against Belka. In the debate prior to the vote, Jaroslaw Kaczynski (PiS) addressed Sejm deputies and denounced Belka's government as the continuation of post-communism, while PO's Zyta Gilowska said that Belka's success was a continuation of the success of the previous premier, Leszek Miller. 
The government only won thanks to the votes of the Federated Parliamentary Club (FKP) and Polish Social Democracy (SDPL), whose deputies agreed to back Belka after last day negotiations. 
Before the vote took place, Belka presented his new plan, which differed from the previous one only in terms of the concessions he made in order to secure the SDPL's support. He promised to build a fair state and ensure a citizen-friendly foreign policy. 
After the vote Belka said that he will do anything to ensure that his government operates until spring next year, the date for the next relevant elections, to parliament.

The EU baptism
Poland has had a generally successful initiation into the EU, a year after joining. Polish Euroscepticism, which grew immediately before and after it joined in May, 2004, is abating. This is primarily due to the generous CAP subsidies to its farmers, which have seen incomes rise by 50%.
Poland is the least hostile of EU member states to the continuation of the British rebate in the EU. The Poles remember 1939, when Britain in March gave them a guarantee of their independence, then only twenty years old, and in September went to war over the German invasion of their country. Germany is an ally; the UK is a friend.
Polish voters warm to European treaty
But the Poles are also warming to the EU as a whole. Although the European constitutional treaty has 448 sections, only two issues have provoked much controversy in Poland, where as elsewhere, in Europe, very few have bothered to plough through the text.
The first is the preamble, which talks of "drawing inspiration from the cultural, religious and humanist inheritance of Europe," but does not mention Europe's Christian heritage, as many Poles had hoped.
Right-wing parties have mainly exploited that issue. While most Poles would have preferred to have seen Christianity enshrined in the constitution, few are expected to reject the constitution this autumn when a referendum is perhaps expected to be held. Preliminary opinion polls show that more than two-thirds of voters support the treaty.
The second issue regards Poland's voting powers within the European Council, the main decision-making body of the EU. While the constitution was being drawn up, one of the most contentious aspects was how member states' voting weight would be altered from a system agreed at a summit in Nice in 2000.
Under the Nice treaty, which will remain in force if the constitution is not ratified, mid-sized Poland and Spain get 27 votes each in the council, while Germany, with a population twice as large, gets 29 votes. Under the constitution, a council vote is passed by a qualified majority of "at least 55% of the members of the council, comprising at least 15 of them, comprising at least 65% of the population of the Union."
Although Poland has similar voting weight under both systems - just over 8% - the fear was that the new system would give too much power to large countries, especially Germany.
The constitutional treaty's vote weighting initially drew protests, although last-minute amendments won by the Polish government eased worries over a loss of influence.
Since the treaty signing in December 2003, however, the issue has become much less contentious. Polish sceptics, too, have largely been won over by the economic boom sparked by EU membership in May 2004.
Many Poles also have realised that raw voting power is less important than they had thought in a European Union where consensus-building is often key. "Voting power doesn't really figure any more," said Roza Thun, president of Poland's Robert Shuman Foundation, who has been touring the country to explain the constitution. "People are still a little upset, but when it is explained that France and Germany won't control everything they change their view."
There is the UK, and its Central European friends, after all.

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AUTOMOBILES

Ukrainians purchase FSO plant


Ukrainian auto giant ZAZ concluded negotiations with Poland's State Treasury on May 11th for the purchase of the treasury-controlled stake of the beleaguered Warsaw-based FSO car plant, a Polish Treasury statement said, New Europe reported.
The Polish government commands a majority of shares in the FSO plant after troubled South Korean carmaker Daewoo handed over control of an 80% stake in the Warsaw car plant. "The investor maintains its readiness to purchase FSO SA shares belonging to the state treasury and to ensure the further development of the plant," read part of the statement. No details of the purchase price or terms were made public.

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AVIATION

LOT relaunches domestic flights

Relaunching of local flights by Polish flagship carrier LOT is a great help for the local government and a relief to the people of the country, the Warsaw Business Journal reported recently.
Businessmen were affected because of the pathetic and day-by-day deteriorating condition of the railways and delay in the construction work of the highway. The flight route will be from Warsaw to Zielona Gora, Bydgoszcz. On the return route LOT will not use its relatively large planes. LOT finalised a deal for 19-seats jet stream 13 number planes with a private company whose name was not revealed. LOT's Director of Connections and Timetable Management, Marek Serafin, said the private carrier will be operating the flights and passengers will buy only single tickets.

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ENERGY

PGNiG cancels offer for 3.4bcm in gas supply

Poland's gas monopolist PGNiG cancelled a tender for the supply of 3.4bn cubic metres of natural gas between July 1st, 2005 and December 31st, 2006, as it received no offer from potential suppliers, PGNiG said in a statement. PGNiG plans to place the order for natural gas directly with potential suppliers, Interfax News Agency reported.
"In order to maintain clarity in our actions connected to gas import, PGNiG's management board has decided to begin another procedure to obtain 3.4bn cubic metres of natural gas between July 1st, 2005 and December 31st, 2006 - negotiations without announcing a tender …instead of press announcements the company will send direct invitations to potential suppliers and, in order to secure competitiveness, the invitations will be sent to at least 4 companies," read the statement.
PGNiG will establish a tender commission to deal with the procedure.
PGNiG extracts 4.32bn cubic metres of natural gas from domestic resources and imports 5.75bn cubic metres from Russia, 0.48bn cubic metres from Norway and 0.38bn cubic metres from Germany. As part of a medium-term contract PGNiG also buys gas from Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakstan.
In 2004 PGNiG purchased 2.67bn of Central-Asian natural gas against 1bn cubic metres in 2003. PGNiG bought 1bn cubic metres less natural gas from Russia in 2004 against 2003 but Russia still accounts for 41% of PGNiG's gas supplies. A full 32% of PGNiG's gas is produced domestically, while 20% of supplies comes from Central Asian countries. Norway and Germany account for 4% and 3%, respectively, of gas supplies to PGNiG.

PKN Orlen's German arm targets network expansion

The German subsidiary of Polish fuel giant PKN Orlen is in talks to acquire Beckmann Mineraloel-handel, which owns 115 gas stations in Germany, to add to its current chain in Germany, Jean-Jacques Verschueren CEO of Orlen Deutschland, said in an interview with the German newspaper, Die Welt, recently, Interfax News Agency reported.
"We have made an offer. However, a final decision will not be made until sometime over the summer. This is not a simple decision for us to make at present and I hope that we can finalise the matter over the next two months," Verschueren said. PKN Orlen officials were unavailable for comment, but PKN Orlen's CEO recently set to decide the fate of its loss-making German operations at year-end. At the release of its first quarter 2005 results in mid-May, Orlen officials did not deny suggestions that it could actually sell its German stations. Currently PKN Orlen owned 485 gas stations in Germany that booked a loss during the first quarter of 2005, primarily due to strong competition on the German market, but Verschueren is confident the business is turning around.
"Now our margins are once again comfortable. I know that we can recover the losses from the beginning of the year in the third and fourth quarter," Verschueren said. "Personally I do not believe that a decision to withdraw (from the German market) will be made," Verschueren told Die Welt. But the pressure is on as state-controlled PKN Orlen looks to complete acquisitions in the Czech Republic and when to cut its losses in Germany as it prepares for Polish parliamentary elections. "In Germany a price war is being fought and profit margins have fallen 50% over the past year. By the end of 2005 we must decide whether to withdraw from the German market" Orlen's CEO Igor Chalupec said recently. Verschueren also said that PKN Orlen's plans for the German operations are still uncertain and could be drastically altered by the outcome of Poland's parliamentary elections later this year. "After the change of government in Poland PKN will have a completely new management and a new supervisory board. Therefore it is normal that the new executive board will question the old strategy," Verschueren said. Orlen is now looking at retail acquisitions in the Czech Republic, after completing the purchase of 62.9% of Czech oil company, Unipetrol.
At the same time, PKN is looking at 70 Aral gas stations currently owned by BP. Orlen, which two years ago purchased its German Aral stations from BP, will now have to beat Austrian fuel concern OMV which also wants the Aral network

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FOOD & DRINK

Heineken Polish unit posts 25% drop in Q1 net profit

The consolidated net profit the Heineken group's Zywiec, a leader on the Polish beer market, were down nearly 25%, to 32.95m zlotys, in the first quarter of 2005 despite a slight 4.25% yearly increase in sales revenues to 548.33m zlotys, the company said in a report recently, Intertfax News agency reported.
The disappointing results have not stopped the brewer's aspiration of becoming the Polish beer-market's leader (it is currently no.2 after SAB Miller's Kompania Piwowarska) which it hopes to achieve through a major restructuring programme. In the same period of 2004 Zywiec recorded a 43.9m zloty net profit on 525.97m zloty revenues. Despite the worsening in financial results Zywiec still intends to become the Polish beer-market leader and to improve results, adding that it is still focusing on building brands, improving distribution and servicing clients.
"The process of restructuring the Zywiec capital group into a client-focused company with strong brands and a good distribution network is underway. The management board is convinced that the completion of this process will secure the capital group the first position on the market. Restructuring the brand portfolio and the financial structure will allow the group to reach a new stage where the focus is on result improvement and the construction of a strong organisation," the report said.
Despite the bad quarterly results the brewer remains optimistic about the future. "Considering the economic conditions, the Zywiec management board is optimistic about the perspective of recording profits in the future," the company stated.
Zywiec said in April that it expects to grow along with the market in 2005 and increase market share. Zywiec's market share is estimated at 36%. Zywiec CEO, Nico Nusmeier said at the time that, although it's hard to predict beer sales before the peak time in the summer months, the company has returned to the expected level of 3-3.5% growth after poor results in the second and third quarters of 2004.

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MINERALS & METALS

KGMH ups Q1 net profit to 523m zlotys

Poland's KGHM, one of the world's largest copper producers, posted a net profit of 523m zlotys in the first quarter of 2005, up 27% from a year ago, above analysts' expectations, Interfax News Agency reported recently.
Analysts had underestimated the positive impact of increased revenues on the company's net profits.
According to Janusz Siatkowski at RZB Brokerage, KGHM stopped hedging copper prices in the last quarter of 2004 so that this would not have the same negative impact on its results as before. He also assumed that operating costs would be 7-10% higher than in first quarter 2004 due to larger material and staff costs.
"Taking that into account we expected KGHM first quarter EBITDA (earnings before interest tax depreciation and amortisation) to be lower by around 12% and net profit by around 20% in comparison to the same period last year," he said.
Some analysts had expected revenues to remain flat. "We expected that revenues would remain at a level of 1.55bn zlotys in first quarter 2004," Dom Inwestycyjny BRE Bank analysts said in a comment. Other analysts had expected revenues to grow, but not by the reported 7%.
"We expected KGHM to show revenues higher by around 3.2% than in first quarter of 2004 as increasing copper and silver prices positively influence its sales. However, the strengthening zloty was driving revenues in the opposite direction," Siatkowski was quoted as saying.

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TELECOMMUNICATIONS

Netia wins tender for UMTS frequency but loses GSM bid

Netia, the top alternative telecoms group in Poland, succeeded in clinching the tender for an extra UMTS frequency after submitting an offer worth 344m zlotys over the minimum price of 1.05m zlotys and beating two other candidates, Qiana Investments and PTK Centertel, the country's telecoms-market watchdog, URTiP announced recently, Interfax News Agency reported.
Only 5 bidders made offers in the tender for the UMTS frequencies - the 3 existing mobile operators PTC, Centertel and Polkomtel (which already own UMTS frequencies), along with Netia and Qiana Investments (part of Hong Kong's Hutchinson group). In an additional tender for an extra GSM 1800 frequency there were no winners as the 2 shortlisted bidders, Netia and PTK Centertel, failed to collect the required qualification points. The result is a strange one as Netia is left facing the question if a mobile-telephony service is commercially viable on the basis of only UMTS without GSM.
The 3 Polish mobile telecommunications operators already have UMTS frequencies but, by winning the UMTS tender a fourth Poland-based mobile operator may have been created in Netia, even though analysts had commented that this was unlikely as the tender criteria did not favour smaller players nor is the market itself attractive enough for additional global players.
Poland currently has 3 mobile operators, indirectly controlled by large global operators. They have invested heavily in infrastructure and brand-building, making entry for any new operator an expensive affair. Thus, even though further growth is expected on Poland's mobile market, it will not be lucrative enough for a new entrant given the tender's restrictions on key-operated elements which limit potential revenue and increase set-up costs dramatically.
A few of the world's largest mobile operators - with their deep pockets and established brands - are already indirectly present on the Polish market, making market entry even more difficult, Interfax said.
France Telecom, owner of Orange, currently controls Polish telecoms giant TPSA and its mobile wing Centertel, whose brand name is to be changed to Orange.
The world's largest mobile operator, Vodafone, holds a stake in Poland's number three, Polkomtel, and has expressed an interest in increasing its involvement.
Deutsche Telekom is currently fighting for control of Poland's leader, PTC. The 3 mobile operators which purchased UMTS licences in 2002 have to have 20% coverage in Poland with UMTS services by the end of 2007.

Hutchison bids for UMTS licence

Hutchison Whampoa Ltd said it would make a bid for third-generation Universal Mobile Telecommunication System (UMTS) spectrum in Poland, Polish radio reported recently.
A Hutchison spokeswoman confirmed on May 27th that Qiana Investment, one of five bidders for the extra UMYS spectrum, is bidding on behalf of the conglomerate. Hutchison said Poland offers synergies with the company's existing 3G businesses in Europe. It said among the attractions of the Polish market are potential demand for value-added services, such as data usage, and strong economic growth. Other bidders for the spectrum include incumbent operators Polska Telefonia Cyfrowa (PTC.YY), Polkomtel (PKT.YY) and Centertel, a mobile unit of Telekomunikaja Polska SA (TPS.WA).

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