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Books on Iran
REPUBLICAN REFERENCE
Area (sq.km)
1.648 million
Population
66,128,965
Capital
Teheran
Currency
Iranian rials
President
Mohammad Khatami-Ardakani
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Update No: 037 - (01/01/05)
The search for a presidential candidate goes on
The debate on which presidential candidate to choose continued in December,
with more hopefuls entering the context, even if the date of the elections has
not been set yet. At least 16 small moderate reformist parties offered their
support to Rafsanjani, but other moderate reformists expressed doubts about his
candidature, mainly because having already been president once he would only be
able to complete a single term if successful. The law limits the number of terms
which a president can serve. Mustafa Moin, the leading reformist
candidate-to-be, was first reported to have agreed to be a candidate for the two
main reformist groups and then to be wavering about the prospect. Most reformist
remain keen on Moin, not least because his candidature is believed to be likely
to be approved by the Guardians Council, which has vetting power on all
candidatures. Some reformists put forwards the name of Asqar Musavi-Khoeniha, a
moderate reformist who is one of the leaders of a third group of reformers, the
Militant Clerics Association, who however does not appear too keen, while others
suggested Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the Ayatollah. One of the main
"selling points" of the latter is that he could attract conservative
voters too.
On the conservative front, there are now already two official candidates, Ahmad
Tavakoli, a member of parliament from Teheran, and Ali Akbar Velayati, a former
foreign minister. The numbers might grow, as the mayor of Teheran, Mahmud
Ahmadinejad, is being pushed to run by the new generation of conservatives which
controls the parliament, while there are also rumours that Mohamad Baqer Qalibaf,
a general of the Revolutionary Guards, is also considering to run.
US pressure bound to grow?
As expected, the deal with the European countries on its nuclear program is
not shielding Iran from US criticism. On the one hand, the Bush Administration
is asking that sanctions be automatically implemented if Iran resumes work on
the part of its nuclear program which is susceptible to lead to the production
of an atomic bomb. On the other, the US does not like the idea that the
production of plutonium is not covered by the current deal. The Iranian, on the
other hand, are likely mostly intent on buying time and declare it unacceptable
that the text of the agreement include the possibility of an automatic referral
to the Security Council of the UN. Whatever the final outcome of the debate on
the Iranian nuclear program, US pressure is likely to increase anyway. The new
Secretary of State, Condoleeza Rice, appears keen to raise a number of issues in
the near future and is allegedly organising a major campaign on the violation of
human rights in Iran. The Bush Administration might well increase its support
for the Iranian illegal opposition. The Iranians likely fear this more than any
campaign against their nuclear program. In fact, during December they repeatedly
added fuel to the fire of the nuclear debate, stressing that the suspension of
the uranium enrichment program was only temporary and even asking to be allowed
to keep running 24 centrifuges for "research purposes".
No doubt US hostility will make itself felt in mid-December, when Iran's
application to join the WTO is scheduled to be examined. Even if Teheran is
optimistic because it expects European support following the deal on the nuclear
program, the Bush Administration has already made clear that it will support the
applications of Iraq and Afghanistan, but not that of Iran.
What about long-term growth?
Although Iran is experiencing a year of strong growth, it should not be
forgotten that this is essentially due to high oil prices and a good
agricultural harvest, both likely to be temporary conditions which are not the
result of any successful reform or large scale investment. Whatever investment
has taken place has so far been limited to the energy and automotive sectors and
transfer of technology has been very limited. The prospect for successful reform
appears if anything to be receding. Increasingly the newly elected conservative
parliamentarians attack foreign investment and privatisation. While the
conservatives had campaigned for economic liberalisation without political
freedom, in many cases this appears to have been a ruse to attract voters. Many
members of the "Developers" party have in fact a background in the
Revolutionary Guards and look increasingly different from the pragmatic outlook
displayed by their more moderate colleagues within the party.
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FOREIGN TRADE
Iran-Turkey trade exchange boom
The value of Iran-Turkey trade exchanges is expected to increase up to €50m by
the end of 2005, Anadolu News Agency reported.
According to bilateral agreement signed by Iran and Turkey during the Turkish
prime minister's visit to Iran, border trade of the two sides have increased to
an eye-catching level. A source noted that the two sides have reviewed the list
of importable and exportable goods and decreased the customs expenses to
encourage border trade among Iran and Turkey.
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