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Books on Armenia
REPUBLICAN REFERENCE
Area (sq.km)
29,800
Population
3,326,448
Principal ethnic groups
Armenian 93.3%
Azeri 2.6%
Russian 2%
Capital
Yerevan
Currency
Dram
President
Robert Kocharian
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Update No: 288 - (01/01/05)
Turkey the key; the 1915-16 genocide the problem
The key foreign country for Armenia, after Russia, is Turkey. In a manner it is
even more important than Russia. For Moscow just wants to preserve the status
quo, in which Armenia remains subordinate to it. A rapprochement with Ankara
could lead to it breaking out of its diplomatic isolation.
An omission from Armenia's draft 2005 budget has touched off speculation that a
rapprochement with Turkey in fact may be in the offing. The missing line item
concerns Yerevan's long-standing effort to win international recognition for
what Armenian officials portray as the genocide of 1915-16. Some observers
interpret the dropped genocide reference as an effort to extend an olive branch
to Turkey. The conditions for a deal have in some respects never been better.
The US Congress, which backed away from putting real pressure on Ankara to
recognise the genocide for what it was under the second Clinton Administration,
is no longer so wedded to the Turkish alliance, given the refusal of its
counterpart, the Turkish parliament to allow US troops to cross Turkish
territory in the Iraq War. There are more Armenians in the Diaspora in the US
than in Armenia itself, which gives Yerevan leverage in American electoral
politics.
Another factor influencing the normalization question is Turkey's bid to join
the European Union. Representatives of the numerous Armenian Diaspora in France,
the second largest in the world after that in the US, are reportedly putting
pressure on the French government to withhold its approval for Turkish
membership in the EU until Ankara addresses Yerevan's genocide claim, but
without success.
Yerevan contends that Ottoman Turkish forces systematically killed ethnic
Armenians in 1915-16. According to some Armenian estimates up to 1.5 million of
the 2.5 million Armenians then living in the Ottoman Empire died during this
timeframe. Ankara has recognized that Armenians died en masse, but says Yerevan
overstates the number of victims. In addition, Turkish officials steadfastly
deny that the deaths were the result of a coordinated government policy, and,
thus, the tragedy cannot be considered as a case of genocide as defined by the
1948 Genocide Convention. Contemporary Turkish officials note that the deaths
occurred during World War I, adding that Armenians were caught in the middle of
the bitter fight going on at that time in the Caucasus between Ottoman Turkish
forces and Russian troops. The Armenians being Christians, supported Russia and
were regarded by the Turkish High Command as a traitorous 'Fifth Column.'
Hitler famously said in 1938: "Who now remembers the Armenian
genocide?" Still, he did and recognised it as genocide. He had genocidal
plans of his own, of course, whose execution will be for ever remembered.
After details of the Armenian draft budget became public, Turkish and
Azerbaijani media outlets in early November went into a frenzy of conjecture on
the implications of the genocide-recognition omission. Armenian officials moved
quickly to squash speculation that Yerevan was substantially changing its
position. On November 9, the Arminfo news agency quoted Armenian Foreign
Ministry spokesman Gamlet Gasparian as insisting Yerevan's stance on the
genocide issue had not changed. "The issue of international recognition of
the Armenian genocide does not concern only Armenia and the Armenians; this is a
universal issue and cannot be lessened to the limits of any budget or similar
financial documents," Gasparian said. Gasparian is well aware of course of
the comparison with the Holocaust.
The Turkish Foreign Ministry responded the next day, adopting a wait-and-see
stance. ""Except for the news reports, we have not received any
official information about such a change in Armenia's [genocide-recognition]
stance," the Anatolia news agency quoted Foreign Ministry spokesman Namik
Tan as saying.
Even if the interpretation of the news reportage accurately reflects Yerevan's
intention, both Armenian and Turkish officials indicate that they will proceed
with extreme caution in trying to end decades of mutual hostility. At the same
time, regional analysts say both states have powerful economic and political
incentives to explore ways to normalize bilateral relations. The normalization
of Turkish-Armenian relations has the potential to create a new geopolitical
order in the Caucasus.
Karabakh issue still there
Turkish officials say the genocide issue is just one of several obstacles
blocking the normalization of bilateral relations. Other issues, including the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, also must be addressed before Ankara can fully repair
its relationship with Yerevan, they add. Turkey has staunchly backed Azerbaijan
during the stalemated search for a Karabakh peace settlement. Ankara, for
example, is maintaining a trade embargo on Armenia until Armenian forces
withdraw from occupied Azerbaijani territory situated outside Karabakh proper.
While the obstacles to normalization appear formidable, regional economic
circumstances are exerting strong pressure on all parties involved to
compromise. For Turkey and Azerbaijan, a Karabakh peace settlement would boost
the profit potential of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which is scheduled to
start conveying natural resources from the Caspian Basin to Western markets in
2005. The normalization of ties between Turkey and Armenia also would reassure
EU member states as they contemplate Ankara's entry into the organization.
The pressure on Armenia to alter the status quo may even be stronger. Some
analysts believe it is in Armenia's vital economic interest to secure the
lifting of Turkey's embargo, thus opening up avenues for trade needed to fuel
continued Armenian development. Other observers point out that normalization of
ties with Turkey would aid Armenia's effort to improve relations with NATO and,
in a broader sense, the West.
Armenia's draft 2005 budget contained language urging the government to take
action to improve ties with Georgia, Iran and Turkey, Arminfo reported. Thus,
the omission of the genocide reference in the same document may well represent
the start of a process by Armenia to search for common ground with Turkey.
Many policy-makers and opinion-makers in Turkey remain sceptical over whether
the genocide-recognition omission in the Armenian budget represents an
initiative to engage Turkey on the issue. The general consensus appears to be
that Turkish leaders should wait and see if Yerevan takes any follow-up action
before buying into the notion that Armenia is truly open to altering its stance
on the genocide issue.
The geopolitical balance of the whole Caucasus at issue
If a rapprochement eventually comes about, the geopolitical landscape in the
Caucasus could be significantly altered. Armenia has traditionally been Russia's
strongest ally in the Caucasus. The normalization of Turkish-Armenian ties,
which would presumably accompany a Karabakh peace settlement, could prompt
Armenia to reorient Armenian political and economic policies towards the West,
or, at the very least, weaken the special relationship now binding Yerevan to
Moscow.
The potential ramifications of the genocide-recognition omission do not seem to
have been lost on Russia, which, in recent months, has expressed displeasure in
various ways over Armenian diplomatic efforts to balance Yerevan's relations
with Moscow with improved ties with the West.
During a public appearance November 10, the Russian ambassador to Armenia,
Anatoly Dryukov, appeared to discourage Armenia from getting too close to the
West. Referring to the recent efforts by Armenian leaders to cultivate better
ties to the West, Dryukov said: "If Armenia prioritises its national
interests, then the vector of relations [i.e. Armenia's special relationship
with Russia] will remain correct," the Mediamax news agency reported.
Turkey the key; the 1915-16 genocide the problem
The key foreign country for Armenia, after Russia, is Turkey. In a manner it is
even more important than Russia. For Moscow just wants to preserve the status
quo, in which Armenia remains subordinate to it. A rapprochement with Ankara
could lead to it breaking out of its diplomatic isolation.
An omission from Armenia's draft 2005 budget has touched off speculation that a
rapprochement with Turkey in fact may be in the offing. The missing line item
concerns Yerevan's long-standing effort to win international recognition for
what Armenian officials portray as the genocide of 1915-16. Some observers
interpret the dropped genocide reference as an effort to extend an olive branch
to Turkey. The conditions for a deal have in some respects never been better.
The US Congress, which backed away from putting real pressure on Ankara to
recognise the genocide for what it was under the second Clinton Administration,
is no longer so wedded to the Turkish alliance, given the refusal of its
counterpart, the Turkish parliament to allow US troops to cross Turkish
territory in the Iraq War. There are more Armenians in the Diaspora in the US
than in Armenia itself, which gives Yerevan leverage in American electoral
politics.
Another factor influencing the normalization question is Turkey's bid to join
the European Union. Representatives of the numerous Armenian Diaspora in France,
the second largest in the world after that in the US, are reportedly putting
pressure on the French government to withhold its approval for Turkish
membership in the EU until Ankara addresses Yerevan's genocide claim, but
without success.
Yerevan contends that Ottoman Turkish forces systematically killed ethnic
Armenians in 1915-16. According to some Armenian estimates up to 1.5 million of
the 2.5 million Armenians then living in the Ottoman Empire died during this
timeframe. Ankara has recognized that Armenians died en masse, but says Yerevan
overstates the number of victims. In addition, Turkish officials steadfastly
deny that the deaths were the result of a coordinated government policy, and,
thus, the tragedy cannot be considered as a case of genocide as defined by the
1948 Genocide Convention. Contemporary Turkish officials note that the deaths
occurred during World War I, adding that Armenians were caught in the middle of
the bitter fight going on at that time in the Caucasus between Ottoman Turkish
forces and Russian troops. The Armenians being Christians, supported Russia and
were regarded by the Turkish High Command as a traitorous 'Fifth Column.'
Hitler famously said in 1938: "Who now remembers the Armenian
genocide?" Still, he did and recognised it as genocide. He had genocidal
plans of his own, of course, whose execution will be for ever remembered.
After details of the Armenian draft budget became public, Turkish and
Azerbaijani media outlets in early November went into a frenzy of conjecture on
the implications of the genocide-recognition omission. Armenian officials moved
quickly to squash speculation that Yerevan was substantially changing its
position. On November 9, the Arminfo news agency quoted Armenian Foreign
Ministry spokesman Gamlet Gasparian as insisting Yerevan's stance on the
genocide issue had not changed. "The issue of international recognition of
the Armenian genocide does not concern only Armenia and the Armenians; this is a
universal issue and cannot be lessened to the limits of any budget or similar
financial documents," Gasparian said. Gasparian is well aware of course of
the comparison with the Holocaust.
The Turkish Foreign Ministry responded the next day, adopting a wait-and-see
stance. ""Except for the news reports, we have not received any
official information about such a change in Armenia's [genocide-recognition]
stance," the Anatolia news agency quoted Foreign Ministry spokesman Namik
Tan as saying.
Even if the interpretation of the news reportage accurately reflects Yerevan's
intention, both Armenian and Turkish officials indicate that they will proceed
with extreme caution in trying to end decades of mutual hostility. At the same
time, regional analysts say both states have powerful economic and political
incentives to explore ways to normalize bilateral relations. The normalization
of Turkish-Armenian relations has the potential to create a new geopolitical
order in the Caucasus.
Karabakh issue still there
Turkish officials say the genocide issue is just one of several obstacles
blocking the normalization of bilateral relations. Other issues, including the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, also must be addressed before Ankara can fully repair
its relationship with Yerevan, they add. Turkey has staunchly backed Azerbaijan
during the stalemated search for a Karabakh peace settlement. Ankara, for
example, is maintaining a trade embargo on Armenia until Armenian forces
withdraw from occupied Azerbaijani territory situated outside Karabakh proper.
While the obstacles to normalization appear formidable, regional economic
circumstances are exerting strong pressure on all parties involved to
compromise. For Turkey and Azerbaijan, a Karabakh peace settlement would boost
the profit potential of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which is scheduled to
start conveying natural resources from the Caspian Basin to Western markets in
2005. The normalization of ties between Turkey and Armenia also would reassure
EU member states as they contemplate Ankara's entry into the organization.
The pressure on Armenia to alter the status quo may even be stronger. Some
analysts believe it is in Armenia's vital economic interest to secure the
lifting of Turkey's embargo, thus opening up avenues for trade needed to fuel
continued Armenian development. Other observers point out that normalization of
ties with Turkey would aid Armenia's effort to improve relations with NATO and,
in a broader sense, the West.
Armenia's draft 2005 budget contained language urging the government to take
action to improve ties with Georgia, Iran and Turkey, Arminfo reported. Thus,
the omission of the genocide reference in the same document may well represent
the start of a process by Armenia to search for common ground with Turkey.
Many policy-makers and opinion-makers in Turkey remain sceptical over whether
the genocide-recognition omission in the Armenian budget represents an
initiative to engage Turkey on the issue. The general consensus appears to be
that Turkish leaders should wait and see if Yerevan takes any follow-up action
before buying into the notion that Armenia is truly open to altering its stance
on the genocide issue.
The geopolitical balance of the whole Caucasus at issue
If a rapprochement eventually comes about, the geopolitical landscape in the
Caucasus could be significantly altered. Armenia has traditionally been Russia's
strongest ally in the Caucasus. The normalization of Turkish-Armenian ties,
which would presumably accompany a Karabakh peace settlement, could prompt
Armenia to reorient Armenian political and economic policies towards the West,
or, at the very least, weaken the special relationship now binding Yerevan to
Moscow.
The potential ramifications of the genocide-recognition omission do not seem to
have been lost on Russia, which, in recent months, has expressed displeasure in
various ways over Armenian diplomatic efforts to balance Yerevan's relations
with Moscow with improved ties with the West.
During a public appearance November 10, the Russian ambassador to Armenia,
Anatoly Dryukov, appeared to discourage Armenia from getting too close to the
West. Referring to the recent efforts by Armenian leaders to cultivate better
ties to the West, Dryukov said: "If Armenia prioritises its national
interests, then the vector of relations [i.e. Armenia's special relationship
with Russia] will remain correct," the Mediamax news agency reported.
ENERGY
Midland Resources may sell Armenian power utility
Midland Resources Holding Ltd intends to sell Electric Networks of Armenia (ArmElNet),
Armenia's national electricity distribution company, with Russia's Unified
Energy System (UES) among the potential buyers, Yevgeny Glandunchuk, ArmElNet's
director general, said, Interfax News Agency reported.
Midland Resources is concentrating more on its metals business, which would
receive the proceeds from the ArmElNet sale, Glandunchuk said. "The problem
is in the price which buyers might offer," he said. The owner has not
received any lucrative offers yet, he said. It could take a year to sell the
network, but by then it would have become more expensive with the need to invest
in it and reduce electricity losses, Glandunchuk said.
«
Top
FOREIGN ECONOMIC COOPERATION
Armenian president, Iranian energy minister discuss cooperation
President Robert Kocharian received a delegation led by Iranian Energy
Minister, Habibollah Bitaraf, Public Television of Armenia reported.
The Iranian minister informed Kocharian that the construction of the Iranian
sector of the Iran-Armenia gas pipeline will start in two and a half months.
Iran intends to bring the capacity of the power exchange with Armenia to 1,000
MW by the construction of the third high-voltage power line, he added.
The Armenian president said that the launching of the construction of the
Armenian sector of the Iran-Armenia gas pipeline and the construction of the
Agarak-Shinuayr high-voltage power line were the beginning of major cooperation
between Armenia and Iran and created an opportunity to discuss future projects.
Robert Kocharian noted that the Armenian side was ready to do everything
possible to continue the current tempo of cooperation.
During the meeting, the sides also discussed the construction of the
Megri-Kadzharan tunnel and the import of fuel from Iran to Armenia.
Armenian leader favours business cooperation with Georgia, Azerbaijan
Armenian President, Robert Kocharian, met representatives of the Association
of Armenian-Georgian Business Cooperation in Yerevan recnetly, Mediamax news
agency reported.
Kocharian said that the establishment of the association has created a
favourable atmosphere for the development of bilateral cooperation and wished
the activity of the structure to yield practical results. The president said
that the Armenian side is doing everything possible to strengthen the
association.
In turn, the Georgian side said that they are intending to create a similar
format of cooperation with Azerbaijani entrepreneurs, attempting to create a
basis for regional cooperation. Kocharian rated this initiative positively,
recalling that Armenia has always supported the settlement of relations by means
of cooperation.
During the meeting, the sides also discussed prospects for Armenian-Georgian
cooperation in the sphere of transport, tourism, etc.
Russian, Armenian capitals sign cooperation programme
A programme of cooperation between the executive authorities of the Armenian
and Russian capitals for 2005-07 was signed recently in Yerevan. Yerevan mayor,
Yervand Zakharyan, and Moscow mayor, Yuriy Luzhkov signed the document, Arminfo
News Agency reported.
"The programme embraces the widest range of cooperation between the
capitals and concerns architecture and town-planning, trade, education and
culture. The document is the result of painstaking work in recent years,"
Zakharyan said after the official signing ceremony. He said that this is the
latest step to strengthen the friendship between the Armenian and Russian
people. "The Moscow investment company is working successfully in Yerevan.
We have agreed today on the creation of a Moscow House in Yerevan and an
Armenian wholesale trade centre in the Russian capital," the Yerevan mayor
said.
"Time limits don't allow me to list even a small part of what the programme
signed today envisages. Moscow has established close business and cultural
contacts with many capitals of the world and the signing of a new programme
between Moscow and Yerevan is a continuation of the expansion of our states'
cooperation," Moscow mayor Yuriy Luzhkov told journalists. The construction
of the Armenian wholesale trade centre in Moscow, which will be done very
quickly, is very significant. "The Moscow mayor's office will give all
possible support to the Russian-Armenian (Slavonic) State University. Armenian
students and schoolchildren will receive a large number of textbooks on the
Russian language and other methodological and scientific literature. A student
exchange will continue and greater opportunities will be created for further
education for primary and secondary teachers in Moscow," Yuriy Luzhkov
said.
The programme signed today will cost more than 100m dollars. The creation of the
Armenian wholesale trade centre in Moscow will cost at least 60m dollars. The
Moscow mayor thinks that cooperation between Moscow and Yerevan has good
prospects and he is sure that trade between the two cities will have increased
fivefold by the time of his next visit to the Armenian capital.
«
Top
FOREIGN LOANS
WB to provide €20m loan to Armenia to fight poverty
The World Bank (WB) has decided to provide a €20m loan to Armenia to back
Yerevan's efforts to eradicate poverty, the World Bank press service said,
Interfax News Agency reported.
It would be the first loan within the framework of a three-year programme of
assistance to Armenia in this field. The project aims to accomplish four main
tasks, the first one being the enhancement of macroeconomic discipline and
improvement of administrative and corporate governance, including the struggle
against corruption. The other aimsare ensuring the ownership rights and the
creation of conditions for stiffer competition in the economy, forestalling and
alleviating social and environmental risk factors.
«
Top
TRANSPORT
Russia proposes joint rail venture with Armenia
The state-run railway companies of Armenia and Russia agreed on November 3rd
to set up a joint venture, underscoring Moscow's renewed efforts to restore rail
communication with Armenia via Georgia after a 12-year hiatus, New Europe has
reported. The agreement was signed in Yerevan by the visiting head of the
Russian national railway, Gennady Fadeyev, and his Armenian counterparts.
"Armenia today is under blockade," Fadeyev told reporters on his
arrival in the Armenian capital. "It has practically no access to sea and
railways. Things are transported mainly by road and air."
"In terms of financial and technical possibilities, the transport corridor
Sochi-Sokhumi-Tbilisi-Yerevan may be resumed within a year," Civil Georgia
quoted Fadeyev as saying. However, he stressed the prospect of increasing the
volume of Armenian-Russian freight transportation through railway ferries.
Fadeyev would not elaborate on the specifics of the project, saying only that
the Russians hope to stimulate Tbilisi's interest in it. "I would have lied
if I had said that we don't want Georgia to be an equal party to our
agreements," he said. "Georgia provides for the shortest route of
communication between Russia and Armenia."
His talks in Yerevan came two days after Russian Transport minister Igor
Levitin's visit to Tbilisi during which he claimed to have made progress towards
the restoration of the rail service that used to connect Armenia and Georgia to
Russia and the rest of Europe. That is presumably key to the success of the
Russian-Armenian venture. The rail link was disrupted in 1992 with the outbreak
of an armed conflict in Abkhazia, a breakaway Georgian republic bordering Russia
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