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In-depth Business Intelligence
Books on Afghanistan
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Update No: 037 - (01/01/05)
The new cabinet: still waiting
President Karzai's formal inauguration took place on 7 December, but he
continued to elude expectations that he would promptly release the list of
ministers in the new cabinet. Reportedly he has been so far unable to satisfy
all parties involved, not least because despite his own declarations that the
new cabinet will not be a coalition one, he is trying to appease most if not all
factions. In particular, the powerful Panjshiri group resist its own demise and
insists that at least one key ministry should be left in their hands. Allegedly
Karzai sought to re-appoint current Defence Minister Fahim, previously indicated
as almost certain to be excluded from the new cabinet, but met a barrage of
objections. Many observers, both Afghan and not, were also worried by the
insistent rumours that the former governor of Herat, Ismail Khan, was being
offered the post of Minister of Interior, but the chances of this happening
appeared to be receding by the second week of December. Discussions have been
held with another of the best known "warlords", Rashid Dostum,
concerning his appointment as chief of staff of the army. Although Karzai
appears inclined to have him on board, other powerful players are vetoing the
appointment, among them current chief of staff Bismillah Khan. There is also
pressure to replace a number of current ministers, on the basis of allegations
of misconduct and incompetence. This is the case of the Ministers of Transport,
Commerce and Civil Aviation. The latter example is possibly the most extreme:
the national airline, Ariana, is at the centre of a big scandal, with million of
dollars having allegedly disappeared in a chaotic situation where the management
never managed to put together anything resembling a budget.
Foreign policy on the move again
For the first time in many months the foreign policy environment of
Afghanistan appears to be shifting significantly. Alarmed by the rumours
concerning cabinet changes, which would imply a major weakening of what used to
be known as the "Northern Alliance", the governments of India and
(much more loudly) of Russia have expressed their concerns about a trend which
might end up bringing back to government elements of their sworn enemies, the
Taleban, at the expense of their allies. US ambassador Khalilzad announced in
December that the Bush Administration is in favour of a deal with moderate
elements of the Taleban, a move clearly meant to prepare the ground for some
major development. Discussions with the Taleban have been going on for a long
time and now Karzai, newly legitimised by a clear electoral majority, might be
ready for signing an otherwise highly controversial deal. Although officially
the deal would only allow Taleban elements to form legal political parties and
therefore join the mainstream political life, it is believed that in fact a
number of individuals close to the Taleban and to Pakistan would join the
cabinet at some stage. The Russian Foreign Minister attempted to lobby on behalf
of his Afghan allies (the Panjshiri group) and rather clumsily so, obtaining
only a sharp rebuff from Kabul. There are however indications that the Russians
themselves are convinced that the influence of the Panjshiris is in decline and
that at most it will only be possible to limit the damage. Allegedly the
Russians started cultivating other political groups based in the northern part
of the country in order to prepare an at least partial alternative to the
Panjshiris, should the influence and power of the latter collapse altogether in
the forthcoming months.
Bumper year for the poppies
During November the US government released its own estimates of opium
production in Afghanistan, which turned out to be much more pessimistic than the
estimates produced not long earlier by the UN. The US estimate a 75% increase
over the previous year, with a US$2.8 billion turnover, which would correspond
to 60% of the Afghan GDP. This new estimate might have contributed to new sense
of urgency which could be sensed in Kabul towards the end of the year with
regard to the issue of opium. Reportedly planes started spraying the opium crops
in the eastern part of the country over the last month or two. The US government
appears now determined to intensify the poppy eradication effort and is taking
the place of Britain as the leading donor in this field, having committed about
US$750 million for the coming year.
Between November and December of issue of the gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to
Pakistan resurfaced in the news. The technical study carried out by the ADB has
been completed and the debate is now focusing on the issue of how to ensure the
security of the pipeline, especially in the tribal areas of Afghanistan and
Pakistan, and on the involvement of India in the project. As far as Afghanistan
is concerned, the impact of the project (if ever implemented) would be immense.
The plan envisages the construction of a railway alongside the pipeline, the
delivery of electricity and the building of roads in the areas crossed by the
pipeline, which would also benefit from the distribution of free gas.
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