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Books on Syria
REPUBLICAN REFERENCE
Area (sq.km)
185,180
Population
17,585,540
Capital
Damascus
Currency
Syrian pound (SYP)
President
Bashir al-Asad
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Update No: 015 - (31/01/05)
Russia Re-enters the Middle East Diplomatic
Game
In January 2005 Syria continued to face strong US and Israeli foreign policy
pressures; however, it also took important steps to obtain more diplomatic
bargaining chips should the 'pressures' and accusations materialize. The US
accuses Syria, one wonders on what evidence, of continuing to act as a base for
Iraqi insurgents and threatening military strikes and additional sanctions.
Israel has pressured the new Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas to shun relations
with Damascus, while also actively campaigning against Syria's potential
purchase of Russian armament. Syria has inevitably responded by strengthening
its relations with Russia. Also by adopting a more compliant policy vis-à-vis
its role in Lebanon in view of the UN resolution passed in the fall of 2004,
demanding it restrict its political and military influence on its neighbour.
The recent election related violence in Iraq provided Bush administration
hard-liners to consider launching selected military strikes at guerrilla
training camps in Syria. Syria continues to be singled out as the principal
crossing point for guerrillas entering Iraq by US commanders in Iraq, adding
that former Iraqi Ba'ath officials are guiding and financing the fighters. At
the end of the month, no such action had been taken - or at least it was not
reported - but the threat serves as a further reminder that the US
administration is sustaining its pressure on Syria. Apart from fighters,
logistics and weapons, US officials contend that Syria is also serving as a
financial transfer centre for funds used to finance the Iraqi insurgency - money
apparently originating from Palestinian organizations operating in Syria. As the
search for the widely publicized weapons of mass destruction in Iraq has been
officially terminated, with no such weapons found, Syria is once more being
suspected of harbouring Iraqi armaments of all varieties. During his very
idealistic inauguration speech, President Bush did not mention Syria directly in
his new list of countries short on democracy, so called 'outposts of tyranny'.
Nevertheless Syria remains one of the main thorns in the region as far as his
administration is concerned as U.S. Secretary of State-designate Condoleezza
Rice reminded us when she warned Syria it faces new sanctions because of its
suspected interference in Iraq and ties to terrorism.
Iran or Syria?
However, Iran was mentioned in the speech, it is one of the 'outposts' under
the watchful eye of Washington. Iran has been at the centre of speculation over
which country the United States would target next for regime change thanks to an
article by "New Yorker" correspondent Seymour Hersh, who provided
significant evidence - denied by the White House - that the administration is
seriously considering action there. Vice-President Dick Cheney hinted as much
citing the potential involvement of Israel if the United States did not act to
end the emerging Iranian nuclear program. There are also reports of US fighter
jets flying missions within Iran in hopes of provoking ground control locks from
radars, which would then be used by the US to identify targets.
Does this means Syria's President Asad can sleep safe in the knowledge he has
been spared? Not necessarily, because while the United States is suggesting that
Iran's nuclear threat and proven ties to terrorism are causing concern to itself
and its regional allies, Syria would inevitably be drawn into any US-Iranian
conflict. Iran would no doubt use its influence on Hizbollah in Lebanon to
intensify attacks across Israel's borders, while Syria's own Hizbollah
connections - which the Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon does not miss an
opportunity to mention - and military presence in Lebanon would draw it into a
conflict with the US and Israel. Syrian sources have also suggested that Iran
and Saudi Arabia have agreed to help fund the Syrian arms shopping trip to
Moscow.
New Missiles
Syrian officials have not denied that President Bashir Asad's visit to
Moscow was motivated largely by an intention to acquire advanced Russian weapons
such as the SA-18 SAM missile system, the Kornet-E anti-tank weapon and an
overall upgrade of Syrian artillery. The new Russian long range missile Iskander-E
was also an item on the Syrian wish list. The weapons would be delivered
quickly. Syria has without doubt been under pressure and President Bashar Assad
has decided to acquire offensive and defensive weapons in 2005, ostensibly, to
repel any U.S. or Israeli attack on Syria. Syrian sources claim that the Asad
regime is expecting a large scale US attack on Syria in 2005 even as US based
analysts are still sceptical that this might happen. Nevertheless, American
officials have raised the matter of Russian arms sales to Syria to Foreign
Minister Sergei Ivanov during his recent visit to Washington. Of course, the US
strongly objects to any sale of weapons systems to Syria defensive or not. Syria
would gain some negotiating power if it had the weapons, which would bolster its
role in any Palestinian - Israeli peace deal. Russia and the United States are
already at odds over Moscow's nuclear cooperation with Iran, accused by
Washington of seeking to acquire illegal atomic arms. Israel, as would be
expected, has lobbied vehemently against the Syrian arms purchase from Russia.
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon told Russian President Vladimir Putin that Israel is
opposed to having Moscow supply advanced SA-18 shoulder missiles to Syria.
Sharon's complaint was expressed in a way highlighting Syria's influence in
Lebanon suggesting that the missiles will find their way from Syria to Hezbollah,
putting Israel Air Force planes and even civilian aircraft at risk. Sharon also
noted that Syria and Hezbollah were encouraging terror against Israeli targets,
both in Lebanon and through Palestinian terror organizations adding that Syria
and Hezbollah are the main challenges facing the new Palestinian government.
Enter Russia
Although Russia initially denied the possibility of Russian armament sales
to Syria, it has also made its case that it should not face such restrictions
and all indications are that Presidents Putin and Asad did conclude an agreement
for the purchase of at least part of the equipment on the Syrian armed forces'
wish list. However, Asad's visit to Moscow is far more significant than an
artillery refurbishment. Indeed, Russia significantly reduced Syria's debt
cancelling billions of dollars worth of loans owed to the Soviet Union. The
Chairman of Syrian State Planning Commission Abdullah Dardari said that Syrian
foreign debt stands at less than 10% of GDP enabling Syria to obtain better
financing terms when obtaining loans from abroad. The agreement also means that
Russia is starting to resume the diplomatic and economic role once held by the
Soviet Union in the region. Russia and Syria also signed agreements for
cooperation in the nuclear field made possible by the 1999 intergovernmental
agreement on cooperation in the field of peaceful use of nuclear power. While
the nuclear power assistance remains doubtful- especially while the nuclear
capabilities of Iran are at the center of a growing crisis, Russia will no doubt
help Syria refurbish its electricity generating facilities. President Asad also
signed an agreement in Moscow for Russian companies to participate in some
Syrian pipeline projects. The Russian companies Stroitransgaz, Tatneft,
SoyuzNefteGaz and Uralmash will be the likely parties, which will extend their
operations in Syria.
Syria, categorically rebuffed by Washington and Jerusalem, has unsurprisingly
re-established links with its former superpower ally gaining access to new
weapons and technology, while Russia will use Syria as a base to strengthen its
links to the region. In fact, in a joint statement, which heralded a greater
role for Russia in the Middle east diplomatic quagmire, President Asad renewed
its call to Israel to resume peace negotiations between the two sides
unconditionally in Moscow, while President Putin stressed that neither Syria nor
the Palestinians should face any pre-conditions to peace negotiations. Syria has
also bolstered its relations with other Eastern European countries reaching
settlements of debts it had with the Czech Republic and Slovakia, the remains of
Syria's loans from the former Czechoslovakia.
In other significant foreign relations overshadowed by the Iraqi elections and
the emerging Iran story, Syria has hinted that it might start withdrawing from
Lebanon as early as the spring. This is the implication considering that the
Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, Nabih Berri, said that Syria did not wish to
interfere in the Lebanese elections in the spring. This is very likely a move on
the part of Syrian officials to avoid any overt interference in Lebanese
internal affairs in light of UN Resolution 1559 and to reduce foreign pressure
on the matter. France has objected to the Syrian presence in Lebanon, while the
United States use this presence as political leverage in maintaining sanctions
and pressure on Syria.
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ENERGY
Syria signs US$14m oil deal with Tunisian company
Syria signed a US$14m contract on December 23rd with a Tunisian company for oil
and gas exploration in central Syria, Deutsche Presse-Agentur (dpa) reported
recently, citing an official statement. The 25-year contract stipulates the
Tunisian HBS International Ltd will drill five oil wells and conduct geological
and geophysical surveys over 8 years in Raqqa province, northeast of Damascus.
The contract also provides for the Tunisian company to conduct earthquake
three-dimensional surveys. Syria currently produces about 600,000 barrels of oil
daily.
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FOREIGN COOPERATION
Ukraine, Syria discuss raising level of transport ties
Volodymyr Koval, the Ukrainian ambassador to Syria, has met with Syrian
Transport Minister, Makram Ubayd, UNIAN News Agency reported.
UNIAN learnt from the press service of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry that
during their meeting they discussed stepping up cooperation between the two
countries in the field of transport, in particular, the possible participation
of Ukrainian companies in tenders for the building of railways, modernization of
rolling stock and railway transport equipment.
Ubayd gave a high assessment of the retraining of Syrian civil aviation experts
in Ukraine and expressed interest in setting up training courses in higher
education establishments in Ukraine for experts who work in other fields of
transport.
Koval and Ubayd also noted the need to create a Ukrainian-Syrian working group
for cooperation in the transport sector.
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