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In-depth Business Intelligence
Books on Iraq
REPUBLICAN REFERENCE
Area (sq.km)
437,072
Population
24,001,816 (July 2002 est.)
Capital
Baghdad
Currency
Iraqi dinar (IQD)
President
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Update No: 031- (28/11/05)
More elections coming
As the elections to the new Iraqi parliament approached, parties and
political groups started to realign to form new coalitions. Only the
Kurdish-dominated alliance almost stayed the same, except for the defection of
the Kurdish Islamists, who after doing well in the provincial elections earlier
this year decided to stand on their own. The Shiite alliance instead changed
significantly, with the split of Ahmad Chalabi, who was leading its secular
component, and the incorporation of the group of Muqtada al-Sadr. The alliance
has now an even stronger religious leaning. Prime Minister Jaffari appears to
have been instrumental in bringing in the ambitious firebrand and vigorous
opponent of the coalition, Muqtada al-Sadr, possibly in an effort to recover
support following the lacklustre performance of his cabinet. For a while it even
looked as if the alliance might have collapsed altogether, not least because its
third major component, SCIRI, is on bad terms with Muqtada. In the event, all
three groups have agreed to a share of 30 candidates each on the joint list, a
significant recognition of Muqtada's lasting popularity in the south and in
Baghdad. In the previous elections, some of his supporters were also on the
list, but without an official role. On the Sunni side, the fragmentation of the
January elections is no longer there and two lists, an Islamic one and another
secular nationalist, will try to attract the Sunni Arab vote, even if parts of
the clergy still favour a boycott of the elections. Another important
development is that most secular groups have now allied around the group of
former Prime Minister Allawi, including the left. Allawi's only real alternative
among secularists is Chalabi's alliance, which is more moderate and includes
some of the monarchists. Chalabi, who used to be a key ally of the Bush
administration until his links to Iran emerged, appears now intent on
positioning his alliance once again as the best option for the US. He recently
spoke out against a withdrawal of foreign troops and against the involvement of
religion in politics.
Different views on oil industry
Oil experts are issuing increasingly critical statements of the government's
plan to boost oil production and export. The International Energy Agency (IEA)
does not expect production to reach 3.2 million bpd before 2010, which would
allow Iraq to export 2.5 million bpd, whereas the government claims it will be 6
billion bpd. The government still maintains that output will reach 2.5 billion
bpd by the end of 2005, while the IEA expects the figure to be a much lower 1.9
billion bpd. During November sabotage attacks continued to exact a heavy toll
from the oil industry, which indicate how the IEA forecast might be closer to
the truth. This year the government has decided to abandon the unsuccessful
tactic of recruitment of tribal militias to protect the pipelines and is now
recruiting an ad-hoc force, which however will take time to train and deploy.
Manoeuvring for a withdrawal
It appears increasingly obvious that the leaders of the Shiite alliance are
beginning to manoeuvre to create the condition for a partial withdrawal of
foreign troops. In particular, they would like to see the international force
leave the south of the country, which is their main stronghold and which they
would like to control without hindrance. They have already occupied local
institutions and security forces and are confident that no external help is
needed there any more. They are ready to accept US presence in the Sunni
heartlands for longer, as long as they work to crush a largely anti-Shiite
insurgency. The latest statement pointing in this direction was in November the
Prime Minister's spokesman, who stated openly that Australian troops are no
longer needed. Previously it had been claimed that British troops would no
longer be needed next year.
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