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In-depth Business Intelligence
Books on Afghanistan
REPUBLICAN REFERENCE
Area (sq.km)
647,500
Population
26,813,057
Capital
Kabul
Currency
afghani (AFA)
President
Hamid Karzai
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Update No: 044 - (26/07/05)
Minister of Interior under pressure
Despite claims by the government that the poppy eradication effort is
succeeding, there is growing scepticism in the US about the achievements of the
US$1 billion program. Considering the amount of money spent on it, there is
little doubt that once again the Kabul government has failed to deliver what it
had promised. US sources reckon that only 533 acres have been effectively
eradicated this year, far less than last year, which had already been a
disappointment. Because of the end of the drought, productivity was expected to
increase and the end result might be another record crop. The slowing economic
activity in cities like Kandahar and Jalalabad, which lie at the heart of the
poppy cultivation areas, seems to be due to some actual reduction, but mostly to
the insecurity created by the eradication effort, that is fears for the medium
and long-term future of the narcotics business than to an immediate lack of
cash. Smugglers and farmers seem to have started saving money for the rainy days
which might lie ahead.
This failure to achieve more, which is allegedly due to corruption among field
officers, together with the renewed insurgency and the lack of effectiveness of
the security forces led to rumours during July that Interior Minister Jalali had
resigned. Although this turned out to be false, Jalali does seem under pressure
and might not stay in office beyond the parliamentary elections, not least
because he seems to have no intention to renounce his US citizenship, as
ministers are required to do by the law. Part of the problem with the poppies is
that significant reductions in some of the provinces where the poppy crop used
to be concentrated were matched by strong increases in production in provinces
which had been so far marginal, like Balkh in the north.
Candidate lists ready
After the completion of the vetting process, official lists of candidates
are now ready for the forthcoming parliamentary and provincial elections.
Surprisingly few candidates were rejected, despite many complaints about a
number of them, including a fair number who were accused of being linked to
armed militias. Many candidates managed to clear themselves for the elections by
handing over to the authorities some weapons and claiming to have disbanded
their own militias. They are likely to have maintained significant arsenals, but
their claim was accepted for good and no further checks were carried out. There
are already complaints that candidates associated with militias and druglords
might be able to dominate the electoral campaign due to their superior
resources, but since all the main political groups include many of these in
their ranks, the protests have so far remained limited to the smaller players,
who are not in a position to alter the rules of the game.
Pakistan-Afghanistan: tension again
The revived insurgency in the south of the country led to rapidly worsening
relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Afghan government accuses
Pakistan of still supporting the insurgency and indeed to have stepped up such
support over the last few months. It is likely that members of Pakistan's
security establishment are indeed involved in supporting the insurgency and that
such support has been increasing recently. This development might be linked to
the stalling of negotiations aimed at allowing to Pakistan some influence over
Afghan political issues, likely including a stronger presence of pro-Pakistani
elements within the Kabul government. This tension as usual this reverberates on
trade relations. Now Afghanistan and Pakistan are discussing the Afghan demand
that Pakistan eases transit trade restrictions and allows Afghans to use the
ports of Karachi and Qasim for their trade. Afghan imports through Pakistan are
already growing at a very fast pace and they reached US$1.2billion during
2004/2005, doubling compared to the previous year.
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