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Books on Afghanistan
REPUBLICAN REFERENCE
Area (sq.km)
647,500
Population
26,813,057
Capital
Kabul
Currency
afghani (AFA)
President
Hamid Karzai
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Update No: 034 - (30/09/04)
Elections round the corner
As election day approached, accusation and counteraccusation flourished
during September. Opposition candidates were especially suspicious of what they
described as government efforts to rig the elections, while government
supporters accused the warlords of intimidating voters and forcing them to
support opposition candidates. In reality, most candidates, and certainly
President Karzai and the leading opposition ones, are trying to buy votes and to
attract local warlords on their side. The electoral campaign has therefore
mostly amounted to a chronicle of efforts to attract regional power brokers on
each candidate's side, with little going on in terms of public meetings and
other usual signs of electoral campaigning. The removal of the governor of
Herat, Ismail Khan, a popular figure among Tajik commanders, is creating a
backlash against Karzai and is greatly increasing the support for Yunis Qanuni,
who resigned from his ministerial post in August to run against Karzai. Although
Qanuni has been criticizing the ineffectiveness of the government and its
failure to disarm the militias, he does not have much credibility, since he was
part of that same government until recently. Also, one of his key supporters,
Minister of Defence Fahim, is the man responsible for the failure to disarm
militias so far. Qanuni's appeal is essentially ethnic, as a number of Tajik
commanders, who had earlier been leaning towards Karzai in exchange for favours,
are now more inclined to support Qanuni in order to "teach a lesson"
to Karzai after Herat.
Lots of talks, little achievements
The multi-side negotiations taking place in Kabul have so far achieved
little. It seems very unlikely that the opposition will agree to a joint
candidate against Karzai, due to disagreements on the name to be chosen, with
some favouring Sattar Sirat and others Qanuni. Also the threat of a boycott from
opposition candidates seems to be evaporating, due to lack of agreement on the
modalities of such boycott. Karzai, on the other hand, negotiated with a number
of opposition candidates, but likely never meant to reach an agreement with any
of them, except perhaps Qanuni. His purpose was rather to keep the opposition
divided and prevent it from forming a common front. A deal with Qanuni may still
be reached, consisting in his reintegration in the government after the
elections, but Qanuni might not want to withdraw from the race in order not to
disappoint his supporters, who are mostly against a deal.
The replacement of Ismail Khan in Herat represented a major turn in the attempts
of the central government to rein in the regional warlords, but its timing could
hardly have been worse. Not only Karzai's appeal among the Tajik population has
significantly been reduced, but also the threat of instability which comes with
it might negatively affect the running of the elections. Immediately after
Ismail's removal had been announced, a mob of supporters attacked and burnt down
a number of UN offices in Herat, as well as the office of the organization in
charge of organizing the elections.
More turmoil could take place after the elections, as the results become known.
A number of candidates might be disappointed with their own performance and
decide to claim fraud in order to justify themselves in front of their
supporters. This possibility is strengthened by the fact that the expectations
of some candidates might not be very realistic, not least because of the ongoing
debate about the exact ethnic composition of Afghanistan.
Perceptions and reality of the economy
As the current Afghan financial year reached its half way, the government
estimated that GDP growth this year will reach 16%, still high despite a decline
on the previous year. Inflation is expected to reach 10%, which if true would
represent a modest increase on the previous year, perfectly justifiable with the
high GDP growth rate. However, the population perceives a much stronger increase
in the cost of living, especially in the case of rent and house prices.
Some of the underlying economic trends are undoubtedly positive. Following the
repatriation of many refugees, the carpet weaving industry is also returning to
Afghanistan, after having to a large extent migrated abroad. Although part of
the processing of new carpets will continue to be done in Pakistan, the return
of the carpet weavers will contribute to the recovery. The improvement in the
relations with Pakistan also represents a good omen for the future. The
Pakistani Finance Minister Aziz recently promised to remove all remaining
obstacles in Afghan Transit Trade, favouring therefore Afghan import-export.
Moreover, Pakistan plans or is considering to get involved in a number of
infrastructural projects, including road building, the airport of Khost town and
the supply of electricity to Afghanistan. Even Uzbekistan reached a deal with
the Afghan government in August, concerning the building of a road between the
northern Afghan town of Andkhoy and Herat, which would then allow a direct
connection between Uzbekistan and Iran. However, the fact remains that the main
stimulants of economic growth in Afghanistan are the narcotics trade and foreign
help, none of which is supposed to last much into the future.
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