|
Books on Syria
REPUBLICAN REFERENCE
Area (sq.km)
185,180
Population
17,585,540
Capital
Damascus
Currency
Syrian pound (SYP)
President
Bashir al-Asad
|
Update No: 283 - (26/07/04)
The Tajik case; Russia gets its way
An important meeting took place on June 4th between the presidents of Russia and
Tajikistan. The result is a new twist in the Central Asian 'Great Game' being
played between Russia and the US.
It looks as if US influence is waning in Tajikistan. Tajik president, Immomali
Rakhmonov, is disenchanted with US policy in Central Asia. The US has not
stabilised Afghanistan, nor has it sent the aid to Tajikistan it promised for
its steadfast support against the Taliban in the post-9:11 war against
terrorism. Washington is obviously distracted by what is going on in Iraq.
In exchange for Russia's decision to write off $300m in debt, Tajikistan has
given Russia the rights to the Nurek space-surveillance station, one of the most
advanced in the former Soviet bloc.
Putin may have used the threat of returning Tajiks in Russia back home, a real
concern for Rakhmonov since many Tajiks are dependent on remittances from Russia
to survive. The Russians could make a lot of trouble ahead of parliamentary
elections in 2005 and a presidential one in 2006.
Rakhmonov has learnt his lesson. The Americans are glamorous, but remote, an
alternative, yet feckless and fickle. The Russians are the big boys on the
block!
US geopolitical position takes hit in Tajikistan
The US geopolitical position in Tajikistan has gone from bad to worse in recent
weeks. Russia appears to have succeeded in achieving a long-held goal of
establishing a permanent military base in Tajikistan, while China has bolstered
its strategic presence with the opening of a Khorog-Kashgar road link. At the
same time, there are signs that Tajik scepticism over strategic cooperation with
the United States is growing.
Immediately following the September 11 terrorist tragedy, the United States
significantly enhanced its geopolitical profile in Central Asia, establishing
military bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. Though American forces were never
stationed in Tajikistan, Rakhmonov welcomed the rapid expansion of ties with the
United States, prompting widespread speculation that Dushanbe one day might turn
its back on Russia and rely on Washington to be the country's primary supplier
of security assistance. In a stunning turn of events, however, Russia and
Tajikistan struck a deal in early June at a summit at the Russian resort of
Sochi that preserved Moscow's economic and political primacy.
Tajik political experts say a muddled and contradictory policy pursued by the
Bush administration played a significant role in pushing Tajik President
Rakhmonov back into Russia's embrace. "US President George W. Bush is not
as clever as Russian President Vladimir Putin in turning the United States into
a 'trusted friend' of Tajikistan," political analyst Fakhriddin Kholbek
wrote in the Ruz-i-Nav newspaper July 8. "That is why it [the United
States] is being regarded as an 'outsider.'"
In late June, Russia followed up on its Sochi success by reaching tentative
deals concerning responsibility for border control and the establishment of a
permanent Russian base. According to a Tajik radio report, Putin is expected to
visit Dushanbe in the autumn to sign a treaty giving Russia a permanent base in
Tajikistan. The pact would formalize an arrangement that has existed since the
Soviet collapse, under which Russia, in the form of the 201st Motorized Rifle
Brigade, has maintained a military presence in the country.
Under the tentative border patrol agreement, Russia stands to transfer in stages
full authority for frontier security to Tajik forces. An official at the Tajik
State Border Protection Committee, Nuriddin Amirgulov, said four preliminary
agreements were signed during bilateral meetings June 29-30. Under the
agreements, Tajik border troops would assume responsibility for patrolling the
eastern Badakhshan region this autumn. The transfer is envisioned to be
completed by 2006, when Russian border forces would vacate border posts in the
Pyanj region, along the Tajik-Afghan border. The final pact on the border
control issue could be ready for signing in late August, Tajik border officials
said.
The announcement of the Tajik-Russian agreements came shortly after China
heralded the opening of its first road link between Tajikistan and the Chinese
province of Xinjiang. The first bus, carrying 26 passengers, arrived June 27 in
Khorog, the capital of Tajikistan's Badakhshan Region, after making the
treacherous 700-kilometer trip from the Chinese city of Kashgar, through
mountainous terrain, in about 24 hours. The bus then continued on to Dushanbe,
arriving almost two days later.
The road route is expected to promote a significant expansion in trade between
Tajikistan and China over the medium- to long-term. At present the route is in
poor condition and has no service infrastructure whatsoever, according to a
Tajik radio report. In addition, winter weather can be expected to keep the road
route closed from every late October until May.
Nevertheless, both Tajik and Chinese officials have high hopes that the route
will emerge as an important conduit for economic activity. Tajik officials also
say that the opening of the new route could create jobs in Badakhshan, which is
considered the most impoverished region of Tajikistan, which itself ranks among
the world's poorest countries.
For China, the Khorog-Kashgar link represents an attempt to boost the share of
Chinese goods in the Central Asian market. Many Tajik political experts note
that China is aggressively promoting trade as a way to extend Beijing's
geopolitical influence in the Central Asia. Indeed, some experts say the focus
of the new route is not Tajikistan, but Uzbekistan, which is widely viewed in
Beijing as Central Asia's key regional player. Chinese President Hu Jintao held
talks with Uzbek leader Islam Karimov in Tashkent in June. The two signed
several cooperation agreements to promote trade and increase strategic
cooperation.
As Tajikistan has strengthened its ties with both Russia and China, the appeal
of strategic cooperation with the United States appears to be fading. In
Dushanbe, political leaders have questions about the US willingness to follow
through on its commitments, some Tajik commentators suggest. Others add that the
United States has sent contradictory signals concerning the democratisation
process, serving to undermine Washington's influence.
In general, the United States since September 11 has placed greater emphasis on
security in Central Asia than on the democratization process. Accordingly,
Washington has tended to steadfastly support incumbent leaders in the region.
Nevertheless, the Rakhmonov administration, which is preparing for parliamentary
elections in 2005, has at times been miffed by the willingness of US officials
to engage opposition leaders - even if such dialogue is mostly pro forma.
"The United States has made both the Tajik government and opposition
sceptical," said Kholbek, the Tajik political commentator. "Both the
government and the opposition do not know whose side the United States is
on." This of course reflects the unfamiliarity of the democratic process in
this former Soviet backwater.
Dunshanbe resumes power energy supplies to Afghan regions
Tajikistan recently resumed supplies of electric power to Afghanistan's
northern province of Badakhshan. The resumption became possible after Tajik
specialists restored the electric power transmission line destroyed in the
course of fighting in Afghan territory. Fifty thousand kilowatt/hours of
electrical energy is supplied to the Nusai locality.
After the completion of construction of the Pamir-1 hydropower station,
Tajikistan plans to provide electric power to the entire Badakhshan province of
Afghanistan, which is the most difficult of access region of the neighbouring
country. Two years ago, Tajikistan supplied electric power to Kunduz province.
«
Top
ENERGY
Rao YsEs Rossy gears up to build Sangtuda power plant
RAO YeES Rossy intends to join a consortium to construct Sangtuda hydroelectric
power station in Tajikistan, New Europe reported recently.
The decision was announced following the meeting of Tajik President Emomali
Rahmonov with the head the RAO YeES Rossy (Russia's Unified Energy Systems)
board, Anatoly Chubais. According to Asia Plus News Agency, Chubais said the
Russian side was also interested in a tripartite cooperation between Russia,
Iran and Tajikistan for the implementation of the project to complete the
construction of the Sangtuda hydropower station.
Chubais also visited the sites of Sangtuda and Roghun power plants. He noted
that he arrived in Tajikistan on the instruction of Russian President Vladimir
Putin, who after his recent meeting with President Emomali Rahmonov in Sochi had
charged the joint stock company Russia's Unified Energy Systems to enter into
development of the hydraulic power sector in Tajikistan.
"President Rahmonov seconded my proposal on holding of a joint tripartite
meeting of Russian, Tajik and Iranian sides here, in Dushanbe, which may
possibly be held in a month," the RAO YeES Rossy chief said. According to
him, the meeting is due to discuss principles of participation of each of the
sides in the project to complete the construction of the Sangtuda hydropower
station.
"The project for construction of the Sangtuda hydroelectric power station
is interesting for us and we have financed and prepared the preliminary
feasibility study on the proposal for participating in completion of the
construction of it," Chubais was quoted as saying by Asia Plus. He added,
"Proceeding from results of the feasibility study, experts estimate that
together with US$120m that have already been invested, a further US$350-520m of
investments are necessary to finish the construction of the Sangtuda
plant."
As far as the Roghun hydroelectric power station is concerned, the volume of
investments in this project will be even more, according to Chubais. He noted
that the cost of putting two hydroelectric power stations into operation would
come to hundreds of millions of dollars.
«
Top
FOREIGN LOANS
Japan grants 6 social, health contracts to Tajikistan
The government of Japan awarded further grants to Tajikistan for implementing
social and health projects. Six grant contracts for a total amount of US$431,000
have been signed in Dushanbe.
The grants are awarded under the grant assistance for grassroots projects of the
government of Japan, local media reported. Since the Japanese embassy opened in
Dushanbe in January 2002, it has supported 130 grassroots projects for the total
amount of US$6.636m, Asia-Plus reported recently.
A total of US$62,873 was awarded to road-building Unit 9 in the Tajik northern
city of Istaravshan for repair of five bridge in Istaravshan district. The
Interaction and Cooperation Public Association has received US$78,420 for
implementing the project aimed at providing a hospital in Tojikobod district
with medical equipment.
Besides, the international organisation CARITAS has received US$79,907 for
reconstruction of lavatories in five schools in Dushanbe. Overall, US$79,910 has
been allotted for carrying out major repairs in the Dushanbe-based hospital for
infectious diseases.
Sixty-five schools have received US$60,935 for purchasing school equipment, and
a grant of US$78,874 has been awarded to the women's centre "Rafoqat"
for implementing "Dushanbe Women's Resource Centre Support" project.
«
Top
FOREIGN LOANS & AID
Dushanbe upgrades water resources management
The World Bank (WB) recently approved the Community Agriculture and Watershed
Management Project for the Republic of Tajikistan for a total project cost of
US$19.79m equivalent, a news release issued by the WB Dushanbe Office informed.
As cited by Asia-Plus local news agency, the project is funded by International
Development Association (IDA) credit SDR 3.4m (US$5.0m equivalent), IDA granted
SDR 3.9m (US$5.8m equivalent) and Global Environment Facility (GEF) grant of
US$4.5m.
The project will help rural communities in Surkhob (Rasht Valley in eastern
Tajikistan), Zarafshon (Zarafshon Valley in the Tajik northern Sughd Province)
and Tohirsu (Khatlon Province) watersheds to raise agricultural productivity and
prime the rural economy while curtailing degradation of fragile areas.
"The project will protect globally significant mountain ecosystems by
mainstreaming sustainable land use and bio diversity conservation within
agricultural and rural investment decisions.
"This approach will provide replicable models for comparable areas
throughout the country," the WB regional office's statement said, cited by
Asia Plus.
The Project's goals are in introducing sustainable land management practices to
the mountain population to increase productivity of land while reducing erosion
problems related to poor land use, building up the capacity of local populations
and helping them identify and implement project activities, and supporting the
government's capacity to provide local communities with technical advice and
develop its role as facilitator and supporter of local initiatives.
Most of the GEF resources will be provided to beneficiaries via grants to
undertake agricultural development activities to improve productivity while
ensuring sustainable land use. Specific activities include contour planting,
low-till or no-till cultivation techniques, introduction of organised grazing
rotations, and rehabilitation of wooded areas and of local bio diversity.
The Global Environment Facility (GEF) is a mechanism for providing new and
additional grant and concessional funding to meet the agreed incremental costs
of measures to achieve agreed global environmental benefits in the four focal
areas - Climate change; Biological diversity; International waters; and Ozone
layer depletion.
« Top
|
CUSTOMISED
REPORTS |
|
Our analysts and
editorial staff have many years experience in analysing and reporting
events in these nations. This knowledge is available in the form of
geopolitical and/or economic country reports on any individual or grouping
of countries. Such reports may be bespoke to the specification of clients
or by access to one of our existing specialised reports.
For further information email:
reports@newnations.com |
|
