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POLAND

 

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REPUBLICAN REFERENCE

Area (sq.km) 
312,685

Population 
38,622,660

Capital
Warsaw

Currency 
Zloty 

President 
Aleksander 
Kwasniewski 

Private sector 
% of GDP 
70% 

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Update No: 090 - (27/10/04)

Poland to reduce its force in Iraq
The prime minister of Poland, Marek Belka, told his parliament on October 15th that he would begin drawing down the 2,500 Polish soldiers in Iraq in January, another blow to a U.S.-led coalition that has lost nearly one-third of its members this year.
The strength of the coalition has been a major issue in the U.S. presidential debates. President Bush repeatedly cited the Poles as a steadfast ally. Poland, seen by the U.S. as a key ally in Iraq, has 2,500 soldiers in the south-central part of the country, leading a multi-national division of 8,000 troops. 
But the government has come under growing pressure to pull out, with nearly three quarters of Poles against the deployment. 
Polish officials have suggested they might first reduce the force by 40 percent and pull out the last troops by the end of next year.
Addressing his parliament before a vote of confidence, Prime Minister Belka promised, ``We will not remain in Iraq an hour longer than is sensible, than necessary to achieve our mission's goal: To return Iraq to the Iraqi people and give security to the world.''
Polish officials had been hinting at a troop reduction for nearly two weeks. 
Of the 30 allied forces, only six have 1,000 or more soldiers in Iraq. Eight other countries have withdrawn all of their troops from the coalition since February: the Dominican Republic, Honduras, Nicaragua, Norway, the Philippines, Singapore, Spain and Thailand.
Officials of two other countries, Ukraine and Moldova, have indicated a desire to withdraw, and the subject has been under discussion in several other countries, such as the Netherlands and Denmark.
Armenia's prime minister also suggested the Caucasus country might not send troops to Iraq, saying conditions there have changed since the 50 were promised.

Belka's victory expected to boost political stability
Belka spent much of the past year in Baghdad, working in the U.S.-led temporary administration, before taking over as prime minister from Leszek Miller in May when the ruling Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) party was embroiled in sleaze scandals. 
In a bid to secure parliament backing in a confidence vote in June, he promised to submit his cabinet to another vote in October, after presenting the 2005 budget draft. His victory should boost political stability, ensuring that elections are not held until mid-2005.
Belka told parliament the economy was on a sustainable growth path and that this year's expansion would be around 6 percent, adding that the zloty's value was now optimal. 
"The zloty has strengthened, achieving a level which is optimal for the interests of exporters and importers, as well as debt servicing," he said of the currency, which has gained 11 percent against the euro since Poland joined the EU in May. 

'Now investment to play key role in GDP growth path' 
Poland's economy is to grow faster than 5% year-on-year for the next six quarters, though, after 2005, that growth will heavily rely on a strong surge in investment, Economy and Labour Minister, Jerzy Hausner, said recently. 
"Poland's 5% gross domestic product growth is secured for the next six quarters," Hausner said. "The investment spending boom, by that I mean spending growth above 10%, will be the key to what happens beyond 2005." At the same time, Hausner named four major factors that, despite increased profitability, are blocking corporate investment. Heading his list was bureaucracy, followed by political instability, costly and hard-to-get loans, as well as an unclear and restrictive monetary policy. 
Poland's GDP grew, in line with expectations, by 6.1% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2004, down from 6.9% in the first quarter. The long-awaited investment boom failed to make an appearance, as investments grew by mere 3.3% year-on-year. Half-year GDP growth reached 6.5% year-on-year, and half-year investment growth totalled 3.4%.

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BANKING

Poland seeks €1.39bn in IPO of nation's biggest bank

The Polish Treasury has released details of the initial public offering of the country's biggest bank, PKO Bank Polski SA, which aims to raise about six billion zlotys, or around €1.39bn. The bank also reported first-half results under Polish accounting standards, the Wall Street Journal Europe reported.
Subscription for shares in what will be Eastern Europe's largest privatisation this year took place October 22nd to November 3rd, with pricing to be set on November 3rd, according to the issuing prospectus. The sale, which has long been expected, will be Poland's largest privatisation since the IPO of the country's dominant telephone operator Telekomunikacja Polska SA in 1998.
PKO BP is Poland's largest bank, with total assets of 86bn zlotys. It is a leader in both the deposit market, with a share of 21%, and the credit market, with a share of 14.2%. It has 1,222 of its own branches and 3,140 franchised agencies around Poland.
"Interest in the offer is already high. I'm sure supply won't satisfy the demand," said Pawel Borys, portfolio manager at DWS investment fund in Warsaw.
Brokers and analysts are still going over the more than 900-page issuing prospectus, but many said the Treasury should easily raise six billion zlotys from the sale, an amount mentioned earlier by Treasury Minister, Jacek Socha.
The Treasury wants to sell 300 million, or 30% of the bank's shares, meaning the share price would likely be around 20 zlotys. "Of course, it's a simplification, but if the price is fair, the six billion zlotys is realistic," said analyst, Artur Szeski, of CDM Pekoa in Warsaw.
About 75 million shares will be offered to individuals, 90 million to domestic institutional investors and 105 million to foreign investors. An additional 30 million shares will be used as "bonus" shares or to increase the above tranches, the prospectus said.
The bank also posted six-month group net profit of 845.7 million zlotys, up 27% from 664.52 million zlotys earlier. Total interest revenue slipped 3.4% to 2.55 billion zlotys from 2.64 billion zlotys in the year-earlier half, but net interest income rose 8.3% to 1.82 billion zlotys. The figures were reported according to Polish accounting standards.

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ENERGY

Weglowa hits 182m zlotys in 8-month net profit

The European Union's largest coal producer, Poland's Kompania Weglowa (KW), rode high worldwide coal prices to an eight month net profit of 182m zlotys versus 140m zlotys at end-July, the company said in a recent statement, New Europe reported.
KW's August revenues reached 737.5m zlotys, up from 705.2m zlotys in July. 
Eight-month revenues for KW reached 5.41bn zlotys, as it sold 33.5m tonnes of coal at an average price of 161.53 zlotys per tonne. Some 68.5 per cent of its production was sold on the domestic market and 31.5 per cent was exported.
The company posted a 449.5m zloty profit on sales for the eight-month period, but the high cost of shutting mines down and of severance payments reached 213.6m zlotys, hindering net profitability. The company continues to cut jobs, reaching 74,600 employees at end-August a 10,400-person reduction since the beginning of 2004. The coal group is still awaiting a decision on an equity boost of 900m zlotys. It is being reanalysed by the government at the behest of the treasury, which calls the proposed increase "very high." The company was supposed to receive an injection of 400m zlotys by end-July, followed by additional funds later. The company was formed last year from the assets of five coal producers (Bytomska, Rudzka, Gliwicka, Nadwislanska and Rybnicka) with 24 mines and nine servicing companies.

EBRD again delays decision on loan to Elektrim

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has put off for the third time a decision on allotting a €75m loan that would allow Warsaw-based telecom and power group Elektrim to finish building the Patnow II power block in July 2006.
Sides have agreed to still fine-tune the potential loan agreement with fellow creditors. Elektrim hopes that, despite the tighter construction schedule caused by the delay, it will be able to complete the investment by a deadline set by the State Treasury after the power group bought PAK, which includes the Patnow power plant and two others. In April, Bojar said that to meet the Treasury deadline, construction must start in early July. Thus, the delay could threaten the entire project.
"The delay is significant but we don't want to comment on the EBRD's decision. The main difficulty in credits for PAK is the question of long-term energy contracts, which are a very large barrier in organising financing, as the banks don't know how the plants will sell the electric power," Elektrim's spokesperson Ewa Bojar told Interfax.
In accordance with European Commission demands, the Polish government plans to void in 2005 long-term energy-supply contracts, which the cash-strapped industry had been using to secure financing for investments. About 40% of the Patnow II power block was completed before construction was suspended in May 2003, due to lack of funding and a disagreement with the Treasury over building deadlines.

PKN Orlen wants EU to okay Unipetrol buy in December

Polish fuel giant PKN Orlen expects a green light from the European Commission for a merger with Czech oil firm Unipetrol in mid-December, Pawel Poreba of PKN Orlen's press office said, Interfax News Agency reported.
"Since Shell, Conoco and Agip have declared that they are not going to use their pre-emptive rights in the purchase of Ceska Rafinerska, we can now submit a motion to the EU for the approval of our purchase of Unipetrol. We intend to do it by mid-September and the European Commission will have 90 days to make its decision," Poreba said.
An investor consortium of Royal Dutch/Shell, Agip and ConocoPhillips owns 49% of Rafinerska and hold pre-emptive purchase rights to Unipetrol's 51% stake. In June, PKN Orlen signed a 13bn Czech crowns (€417m) deal with the Czech National Property Fund (FNM) to buy a 63% stake in the biggest Czech downstream oil firm. The Polish company signed side deals with ConocoPhillips and the Czech Republic's number two chemical group, Agrofert, to unload non-core assets in the group. PKN Orlen signed for the purchase of Unipetrol in September, prior to which a final price for the Czech group was not made official. The deal allowed for the price to be adjusted down 25% or up15% depending on valuation changes from January one to purchase date.

Polish, German firms in talks on possible pipeline

Polish state fuels monopoly, the polish Oil and Gas Company (PGNiG), and the Lipsk-based German natural gas company Verbundnetz Gas AG (VNG AG) announced recently in Warsaw that they were considering cooperation in the construction of a natural gas pipeline in north-eastern Poland, Polish Radio said, Deutsche Presse-Agentur (dpa) reported. 
PGNiG and VNG officials declined to reveal details concerning the possible length and route of the pipeline. A decision on whether to go ahead with the project would be expected in early 2005, PGNiG and VNG officials said.
The companies signed two agreements recently creating trade and transit firms in which each will hold a 50% state. PGNiG and VNG also announced plans to review further opportunities for trans-European natural gas transit which could lead to pipeline projects linking Poland and Germany.
VNG AG supplies natural gas to regional, municipal and industrial clients in eastern Germany.
PGNiG is owned entirely by the polish State Treasury and is charged with guaranteeing Poland's energy security by providing sustainable and uninterrupted supplies of natural gas. In recent years the company has been seeking ways to ease Poland's heavy dependency on gas supplies from the Russian far east by finding alternative sources.

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FOOD & DRINK

KP records 440m zloty profit

Kompania Piwowarska (KP), one of the largest breweries, recorded a zl 440m profit in the financial year ending in March, on revenues of zl 2.65bn, Warsaw Business Journal reported recently. Although chief rival Zywiec Heineken attained sales of zl 3.2bn in 2003, it only managed a net profit of zl 206.2m. In order to sustain its profitability, KP has focused on distribution and sales, increasing employment in this area by 300 over the past months and boosting its share of beer sales in hypermarkets from 20% to 27%. KP's Zubr brand, produced by the Dojlidy brewery, recorded the highest increase in sales, capturing 5.1% of the market, claims KP. Meanwhile, the company's flagship brand, Tyskie, is the market leader with 15.8%. KP's total market share at the end of June totalled 32.3%, as compared with Zywiec Heineken's 34.5%. Carlsberg Okocim is the third largest player with 13.5% of the market.

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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

Softbank to purchase 14% of Comp Rzeszow

Listed IT integrator Softbank, part of Poland's leading IT firm Prokom Group, will purchase a 14% stake in Comp Rzeszow for 42.1-46.5m zlotys in an upcoming initial public offering (IPO), Softbank said in a statement.
Softbank, which signed the deal for 495,000 shares, aims to further hike its stake in Comp Rzeszow to 20-23%. It will place orders during the book-building process. The two companies, which both specialise in delivering IT services to the banking sector, signed an alliance agreement in order to strengthen their position and extend their product portfolio.
The analysts are not unanimous on the importance of the deal. Some treat it as a financial investment for Softbank rather than an alliance, others see it as a first step towards a merger. "It is yet another signal of the beginning of the inevitable consolidation process in the Polish IT industry," CA IB analyst Przemyslaw Sawala-Uryasz said, Interfax News Agency reported.

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MINERALS & METALS

Kety to invest in Ukraine

Poland's largest aluminium goods maker, Grupa Kety, will invest 31m zlotys in a Ukrainian aluminium elements and segments manufacturing plant and spend an additional 30m zlotys on a takeover which is currently being finalised, Grupa Kety President, Jan Kryjak, said, Interfax News Agency reported.
"The move is in line with our strategy of becoming a leading aluminium goods producer in the Central and Eastern Europe," Kryjak said. "We are finishing a takeover transaction of similar size, outside of Poland, but I will be able to give more details at the beginning of the fourth quarter."

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PHARMACEUTICALS

Privatisation of Polish Pharmaceutical Holding

Treasury Minister, Jacek Socha, has announced the 2006 privatisation of Polish Pharmaceutical Holding (PHF) via a share floatation, Warsaw Business Journal reported recently. 
"In the first phase we will direct our offer at financial investors. If the need arises to increase the company's share capital, we will carry out a new share issue. The state will retain no less than a 70% stake in PHF," said Socha. The following phases of privatisation would entail selling shares to different groups of investors, but an advisor would decide upon the final details of the project. "Privatisation of the whole holding will be more beneficial than selling the Polfas separately, but it is too early to assess the value," Socha said. Initially, the holding will have the structure of a financial group, while the Polfas will retain their legal identities. "The moment the holding is privatised, it should have a clear and efficient operating structure," he stressed.

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TELECOMMUNICATIONS

BT enters the Polish market

TP SA will have to face a new rival on the telecommunications market-British Telecom. BT has opened a branch in Warsaw that in the future will become a BT marketing centre for all of Central and Eastern Europe, New Europe reported recently. BT has announced a decision to open an office in Warsaw and launch intense activities in Poland in order to offer a full range of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) solutions to organisations operating in many places in the region. "BT consistently aims at transforming from a traditional operator of voice services into an advanced IT technology and telecommunications company," said Francois Barrault, president of BT International. "Developing activities in Central and Eastern Europe is an important element of building the foundations for future growth, and we are glad to be able to offer a full range of services to companies and organisations in Poland." BT perceives Poland as an important ITC service and outsourcing market with promising development prospects.

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