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Books on Afghanistan
REPUBLICAN REFERENCE
Area (sq.km)
647,500
Population
26,813,057
Capital
Kabul
Currency
afghani (AFA)
President
Hamid Karzai
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Update No: 035 - (26/10/04)
Presidential elections without surprises
The month of October was dominated by the last days of the electoral
campaign and then by the wait for the results of the presidential elections. As
the end of the month approached, counting had not been completed yet, but it
appeared clear that Karzai was firmly in the lead and that he would win at the
first round with around 55%. Only three other candidates appeared likely to
reach double digit figures. Yunis Qanuni, the Tajik leader of a moderate
fundamentalist party, who resigned as Education Minister to challenge Karzai,
capitalised on the discontent among former jihadi commanders for the removal of
one of their leaders, Ismail Khan, from the position of governor of Herat. With
about 15% of the votes, he emerged as Karzai's main rival and faces now the
choice of pushing for a ministerial position or establishing himself as the
leader of the opposition. Rashid Dostum, the former militia commander, obtained
more than 10% of the votes and succeeded in confirming himself as the
"leader of the north", by getting many more votes than anybody else in
that region. He attracted the Uzbek and most of the Turkmen vote, with some
Tajiks opting for him as well. With almost 10% of the votes, Mohaqqeq achieved
an overwhelming victory among the Hazaras, establishing himself as the new,
legitimate leader of the community and sidelining Khalili, an ally of President
Karzai. The country, therefore, appears as ethnically divided as ever. Only the
Tajik community is rather evenly split between supporters of Yunis Qanuni and
those who oppose him. The Pashtuns largely voted for Karzai, with just a few of
them opting for some minor candidates.
Implications and next steps
The fact that all the leading players can, at least to some extent, claim to
have done well should favour stability in the short term. It will give an
incentive for them to seek integration in the political process. The two main
losers in the election were Ismail Khan, whose Herat province gave almost 60% of
the votes to Karzai, and Prof. Rabbani, the leader of the conservative Jamiat-i
Islami, whose support for Karzai in his supposed stronghold of Badakhshan failed
to deliver more than 20% to Karzai. The focus of the attention now will shift
towards the formation of a new government. Karzai declared in public that he
will no longer distribute positions on the basis of striking a balance among
factions and ethnic groups, but rather according to merit. It remains to be seen
whether he will be able to do so, especially since the margin of his victory,
while comfortable, was still far short of the 70% wished by his circle and
indicated as the landslide which would represent a complete endorsement of his
policies. After the formation of the new government, the focus will shift
further towards the forthcoming parliamentary elections, expected for spring
2005.
A love-hate relationship with Pakistan
The recent decision by the Sindh government to levy goods travelling to
Afghanistan led once again to tension between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The
Kabul government threatened in response to levy US$3,000 on every truck carrying
Pakistani goods to Afghanistan. An Afghan delegation travelled to Islamabad and
convinced the Pakistani Prime Minister to force the Sindh government to remove
the. In reality, the Pakistani central government appears keen to improve
relations with Afghanistan, not least because Karzai in recent months
increasingly emancipated himself from the tutelage of anti-Pakistani factions,
such as the one led by Yunis Qanuni. The Pakistani government probably also
hopes that some sort of deal by the Afghan government with the mainstream
Taleban might be within reach and that finally pro-Pakistani elements would be
incorporated into the Kabul government.
In the meanwhile, trade with Iran continued to grow faster than with Pakistan.
In the first 6 months of the current Afghan year (April-October) the increase
was 63%. This can also be taken as a further confirmation that some sectors of
the Afghan economy are indeed growing very quickly. At the end of September the
National Bank also established for the first time a capital market in
Afghanistan, with the launch of an auction of capital notes. The fact that the
Afghani currency has been strengthening in recent months, falling to 44-45 to a
dollar from a high of 53 earlier this year is also a sign that confidence in the
short-term economic prospects is growing. In remote areas, though, the picture
which emerges is quite different. The government itself acknowledges that about
6.3 million Afghans are being affected by the drought and depend on
international help for survival. In many cases the need for water is so bad that
even international help organisations believe they cannot cope and are advising
the farmers to leave their village and resettle.
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ENERGY
Russian electricity in Afghanistan via Tajikistan
Unified Energy Systems of Russian (EES Rossii) could enter Afghanistan's energy
system via Tajikistan, the chief of the national electricity utility, Anatoly
Chubais, said recently. During a news conference held recently he said stated:
"This will be possible in case of the implementation of our projects in
Tajikistan, to which three to ten years are given."
Chubais stressed that "Afghanistan is even now receiving electric energy
from Tajikistan" that is in turn connected to Russia. "We are
seriously analysing grid projects for Afghanistan," he said, Itar-Tass News
Agency reported.
Chubais did not rule out that the EES Rossii could join China's energy system in
prospect. "At present this topic sounds hypothetical, but it could become a
reason for serious talks," Chubais said.
"China is now present in our discussions, even though Iran is in them more
often," Chubais said.
He added that he could probably hold talks in Iran soon. As for other operations
of EES Rossii abroad, Chubais said: "Large-scale projects could appear in
the nearest time in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan." He admitted that talks on
the Russian company's buying a 50 per cent stake in Kazakstan's Ekibastuz
hydroelectric station were difficult, but were nearing completion. Besides,
"we have got positive results in Georgia," he added.
"Despite the most acute political events, our business in this country is
developing positively, and the Georgian leadership on the whole has been able to
find a sound approach to solving these issues," Chubais said. He expressed
hope that the coming winter in Georgia, whose energy system EES Rossii owns,
would go without failures of the energy and heat supply.
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