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Books on Iran
REPUBLICAN REFERENCE
Area (sq.km)
1.648 million
Population
66,128,965
Capital
Teheran
Currency
Iranian rials
President
Mohammad Khatami-Ardakani
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Update No: 036 - (23/11/04)
Conservatives and reformists: who is the most divided
internally?
As the presidential elections get closer, the two camps appear increasingly
divided about whom to support. The progressive wing of what used to be the
reformist front is now pushing for the former Minister for Science, Research and
Technology Mustafa Moin to be selected as a joint candidate of all the reformist
groups. Moin, a scientist who supported the Islamic Revolution from the
beginning, served in Khatami's governments and resigned in 2003 following a
clash with the parliament. Moderate reformists, on the other hand, are not keen
on Moin, whom they see as too close to the Islamic left, and are increasingly
gathering behind former president Rafsanjani. A centrist more than a reformer,
Rafsanjani would find it easier to work with the conservative majority in the
parliament. Moreover, contrary to Moin, Rafsanjani would have good chances of
winning. Even if he is unpopular among reformist voters, many of them might
support him in order to prevent the conservatives from achieving complete
domination of the political system.
At the moment, the conservatives appear even more divided. Old guard
traditionalists are divided between Aliakbar Velayati, a former minister of
foreign affairs, and Ali Larijani, a former chief of radio and television. The
neo-conservatives, who control the parliament, are discussing whether Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad, the mayor of Teheran, or Ahmad Tavakoli, a member of parliament,
would be the best choice. A divided conservative front would likely be defeated
by Rafsanjani. It is not a chance that the conservative press started running a
campaign against Rafsanjani's family, although some supporters of Velayati have
already stated that they would rather support Rafsanjani than a neo-conservative
candidate. On the other hand, an old guard conservative would find it difficult
to defeat Rafsanjani, even if he was the only right-wing candidate.
While the discussion on the candidates for the May Presidential elections go on,
the conservatives are still carrying on their unrelenting campaign against the
progressive media. In November, two more journalist were arrested, while
hundreds of pro-democracy sites have been blocked and several of their promoters
arrested.
The nuclear program: will the deal work?
On the international front, the confrontation of the Iranian nuclear program
continued to steal the scene. The preliminary agreement with the European Union
countries, to suspend the enrichment of the uranium in exchange for trade,
security and technological incentives, did not satisfy the Bush administration.
Some diplomatic sources claimed that Iran was exploiting the few days left
before the coming into force of the suspension in order to produce as much gas
as possible. Moreover, there are different interpretations of the deal. Some
Iranian officials argue that the suspension will last only a few months, until
experts of both sides reach a conclusion about the military or civilian nature
of the program. In any case the fact that China came out strongly in support of
the Iranian position makes unlikely that the Security Council will approve
punitive measure against Iran even if the US push for it. There is speculation
that the Chinese might go as far as vetoing a resolution aiming in that
direction.
Oil bonanza has little direct impact on Iranian economy
Since Iran earns an additional US$900 million for every $1 increase in the
price of oil, it is expected that it will earn US$10 billion more this year.
This money is expected to be saved in order to be spent in the future. It is
probably a wise decision, since if it was invested in the Iranian industry as it
is it would probably be wasted. Despite widespread recognition that Iran needs
to expand its use of capital-intensive methods, so far progress has been slow.
In fact, the investment productivity index decreased by 2.2% each year over the
last four years, while manpower profitability has increased by a significant,
but still modest 2.4% on average during the same period. As a result, job
creation continues to lag behind the target, with 2.28 million jobs created in
2000-2004, as opposed to the planned 2.57 million. It is not all bad news,
however. The Sadra industrial group is willing to partecipate in one of the
South Pars project's phases, a sign that the Iranian industry is developing its
capabilities in the oil sector. The government is keen to see Iranian companies
increasingly replace multinationals in the oil and gas industry.
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ENERGY
Second Armenia-Iran power cable to be built end-2004
Iranian energy company Sanir is to complete building a second high-voltage
power cable between Armenia and Iran by the end of 2004, Saak Abramian, director
general of Armenia's ZAO High-Voltage Power Cables, Interfax News Agency
reported.
He said the second line would make it possible to double the flow of electricity
between Armenia and Iran. The cable is being constructed based on an energy
cooperation memorandum between Iran and Armenia, signed in Yerevan in July 2002,
he added.
Under this memorandum, Iran provided Armenia with a credit of 8.4m Euro to build
the second power line, which would be repaid with electricity supplies from
Armenia. During the summer, Armenia supplies electricity to Iran, and imports
electricity from Iran in winter. Armenian Energy minister, Armen Movsisian, said
that a third line might be built, along which Armenia could supply electricity
to pay for gas supplied through the Iran-Armenia pipeline, which should start no
later than January 2007.
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