|
Books on Afghanistan
REPUBLICAN REFERENCE
Area (sq.km)
647,500
Population
26,813,057
Capital
Kabul
Currency
afghani (AFA)
President
Hamid Karzai
|
Update No: 036 - (23/11/04)
Waiting for a new cabinet
After Karzai's victory in the 9 October presidential elections, the
political focus shifted to the new cabinet, that Karzai should appoint before
the end of November. Rumours about the identity of the new ministers are plenty
in Kabul and do not necessarily reflect the reality, but there seem to be some
firm points. Key ministers like Ashraf Ghani and Ali Ahmad Jalali are virtually
certain to be still there, but they might be shifted to other ministries (they
currently occupy finance and interior respectively). Others, like Defence
Minister Fahim, are almost certain to be removed from their post. Like him,
other fellow members of his faction, such as Foreign Minister Abdullah and
Education Minister Qanuni, seem bound to go, although negotiations with the
latter appear to be underway. The main issue will be the ethnic balance within
the cabinet. Karzai announced that he will appoint ministers according to their
professional skills regardless of factional or ethnic pressure, but it looks
unlikely that he will be able to ignore the ethnic issue altogether after
Hazaras and Uzbeks voted overwhelmingly for candidates from their own ethnic
group. Tajik Islamist leaders like Prof. Rabbani and the Massud brothers, as
well as an Uzbek intellectual like Azam Dodfar might be the new entrants in the
forthcoming cabinet. There is by contrast little talk at present of the
parliamentary elections, due in April/May. The kidnapping of three UN election
workers has further complicated the issue of holding parliamentary elections on
time, although the UN has been careful to play down the issue.
A new friendship with Pakistan?
As far as international relations are concerned, the main event in October
was the visit of Pakistani president Musharraf. The first foreign head of state
to meet Karzai after his election, Musharraf was trying to impress a new spin on
Afghan-Pakistani relations. There were indeed positive steps taken as a
consequence of the visit, like the setting up of a joint committee to supervise
terrorist activities along the border shared by the countries. The Bush
administration is pushing the two countries to get closer, in order to counter
Iranian influence in Afghanistan and to stabilise the insurgency in the southern
and eastern parts of the country. However, Musharraf did not succeed in
convincing Karzai to accept a major Pakistani role in the training of the new
Afghan National Army, due to Pakistan's lingering unpopularity in many quarters.
After the resolution of the dispute caused by the decision of Sind's government
to raise a tax on Afghan transit trade, which caused trade between the two
countries to fall in July-September, trade between the two countries is expected
to start increasing again. Interestingly, however, trade with Iran is growing
much faster.
IMF assessment: positive with shadows
At the beginning of November, the IMF issued its quarterly review of the
Afghan economy. It was the first attempt to measure the impact of the new
drought on the Afghan economy. Cereal production fell by 25%, dragging overall
economic growth (the legal economy) down to 7.5%, significantly less than
projected earlier. Construction, transport and services are the fastest growing
economic sectors. The illegal economy, on the other hand, is estimated to be
growing much faster. The poppy harvest was hit by the drought too, but because
harvested surfaces went up by 64% over the last year, according to UN figures,
overall production still recorded double digit growth. This means that the
incidence of the shadow economy on total GDP keeps growing. Inflation is being
contained, in part due to the re-evaluation of the Afghani currency, and is now
estimated at 14.1% yearly. Fiscal revenue has been increasing faster than
planned and amounted to US$125 million in the first half of the 2003/2004 fiscal
year, although this still corresponds to a very modest level of tax collection.
There were good news on the front of the external current account deficit too,
as it narrowed to 12% of GDP in the first half of the current year, down from
22% a year earlier. This was due to both an increase in exports and a decrease
in imports, which is however attributable to the slow progress of
reconstruction. The government spent less than a tenth of what it had planned in
reconstruction, mainly due to precarious security conditions.
«
Top
ENERGY
Russian electricity in Afghanistan via Tajikistan
Unified Energy Systems of Russian (EES Rossii) could enter Afghanistan's energy
system via Tajikistan, the chief of the national electricity utility, Anatoly
Chubais, said recently. During a news conference held recently he said stated:
"This will be possible in case of the implementation of our projects in
Tajikistan, to which three to ten years are given."
Chubais stressed that "Afghanistan is even now receiving electric energy
from Tajikistan" that is in turn connected to Russia. "We are
seriously analysing grid projects for Afghanistan," he said, Itar-Tass News
Agency reported.
Chubais did not rule out that the EES Rossii could join China's energy system in
prospect. "At present this topic sounds hypothetical, but it could become a
reason for serious talks," Chubais said.
"China is now present in our discussions, even though Iran is in them more
often," Chubais said.
He added that he could probably hold talks in Iran soon. As for other operations
of EES Rossii abroad, Chubais said: "Large-scale projects could appear in
the nearest time in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan." He admitted that talks on
the Russian company's buying a 50 per cent stake in Kazakstan's Ekibastuz
hydroelectric station were difficult, but were nearing completion. Besides,
"we have got positive results in Georgia," he added.
"Despite the most acute political events, our business in this country is
developing positively, and the Georgian leadership on the whole has been able to
find a sound approach to solving these issues," Chubais said. He expressed
hope that the coming winter in Georgia, whose energy system EES Rossii owns,
would go without failures of the energy and heat supply.
«
Top
|
CUSTOMISED REPORTS
|
|
|
Our analysts and editorial staff
have many years experience in analysing and reporting events in these nations. This knowledge is available in the form of geopolitical and/or economic country reports on any individual or grouping of countries. Such reports may be bespoke to the specification of clients or by access to one of our existing
specialised reports.
For further information email:
reports@newnations.com |
« Top
|
