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REPUBLICAN REFERENCE
Area (sq.km)
1.648 million
Population
66,128,965
Capital
Teheran
Currency
Iranian rials
President
Mohammad Khatami-Ardakani
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Background:
Known as Persia until 1935, Iran became an Islamic republic in 1979 after the ruling shah was forced into exile. Conservative clerical forces subsequently
crushed the westernising liberal element. During 1980-88, Iran fought a bloody, indecisive war with Iraq over disputed territory, which caused large-scale
damage to its economy. The key current issue is how rapidly the country should open up to the modernising influences of the outside world, with a conservative
faction in control of some key institutions, such as the Council of Guardians, and a reformist faction centred on elected President Khatami.
International politics
Despite the apparent improvement in the relations between the US and Iran, which had followed the 11 September terrorist attacks, by January 2002 the tension
between the two countries had reached new peaks. President Bush accused Iran of being part of an "axis of evil" together with Iraq and North Korea and asked
Iran to stop meddling in the internal affairs of Afghanistan and developing weapons of mass destruction. The lobby favourable to the abolition of sanctions
against Iran has the support of several US congressmen and senators and even within the State Department some officials strove to make the situation look less
critical. However, actions and declarations by members of the Bush administration clearly point towards the maintaining of American hostility towards
Iran.
The Bush administration is increasing its pressure against Iran on the world arena, although most countries are not very keen to respond to such calls. The
European Union in particular looks inclined to actually expand its ties to Iran. The only major countries whose relations with Iran have been affected have so
far been Japan and Russia and even them rather marginally. There have been delays in the negotiation of deals in the oil, nuclear and defence industries, but
in the end both Russia and Japan appear intent on continuing their flourishing trade with Iran. With the exception of US companies, the oil industry worldwide
is very active trying to increase its presence in Iran as much as possible. This applies to relatively small companies too, despite the demanding character of
the Iranian market.
On the Iranian side, the reformist government is keen on improving relations with the US, but there remains strong opposition from the conservatives, who
dominate a number of key institutions, first and foremost the Council of Guardians, and count among their members the Supreme spiritual leader, Ayatollah
Khamenei. Former President Rafsanjani, who has a reputation for pragmatism and in the recent past had showed signs of wanting to recycle himself as a
moderate, is now emerging as a strenuous defender of intransigently anti-American positions.
While the Iranian leadership has good reason to be worried about the intensification of American hostility, the international isolation of the Bush
administration in this regard make any major action unlikely in the short term. The re-emergence of Russia as a big player in the oil market could test the
good relations that the two countries have been enjoying for some years. Russia, for example, is expressing its unhappiness at Iran's plans to explore a
sector of the Caspian sea that it claims as its own, while the negotiations on how to divide the resources of the sea among the bordering countries are still
far from concluded. In the medium- and long-term Russia's desire to become a major player in the oil market could hurt Iran's own plan to dramatically expand
its market share.
Economy and politics
Apart from the international tensions, the economic and political situation of Iran remains uncertain. The development of oil extraction in Iran has been
negatively affected by project delays and by some flaws in the buy-back deals negotiated with the international investors and it is by no means certain that
Iran will succeed in increasing its production to the levels planned. Moreover, while Iran is being successful in attracting investment towards the
development of oil extraction, it has not succeeded yet in doing the same for the construction of pipelines to East Asia, a market for which the country is
potentially very well placed.
If the debate about the chances of success of Iran's plan to expand its oil production is still undecided, there is no doubt that the Islamic Republic cannot
afford a failure. Although the birth rate has now been brought down to manageable levels, the baby boom generation is beginning to join the workforce, causing
a terrible headache to the government. It needs to create between 800,000 and 1,200,000 new jobs every year to prevent an increase in the unemployment rate
and keep the population happy, but in 2000/2001 it succeeded in creating just 400,000. Economic growth reached 4.5% in that year, short of the 6% target but
still not a bad achievement when judged by the standards of Iran's performance over the last decade. In 2001/2002, which according to the Iranian calendar
ended on 21 March, low oil prices and a cut in production will ensure that growth will be lower, probably around 3.5%. It appears obvious that it will be
difficult to achieve significantly higher growth rates without attracting massive foreign investment, but there is a strong opposition among conservatives
against foreigners playing a much larger role in Iran's economy. Investment in the oil industry is less controversial, because it tends to be easier to
isolate from the mainstream of society and because the rewards are so obvious. But that will likely not be enough to inject enough dynamism in the Iranian
economy. The opportunity to attract funds towards other sectors certainly exists. Foreign businesses express a strong interest in the Iranian internal market,
which at present is underdeveloped, due to restrictions to imports, which are not allowed to exceed $15 billion, and to the inability of the domestic
industries to meet demand. In the car industry, for example, it is estimated that annual sales of 300,000 cover only half of potential demand.
The attempts to reform the Iranian economy and political system have been slowed by the opposition of the conservative faction. The Council of Guardians has
been blocking the introduction of several laws, including the new foreign investment law, approved by the parliament. |
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Update 05 - (25/04/02)
Signs of confrontation with US easing?
The tension between Iran and the US remained high during March and April, but there were signs that the two countries were willing to leave the door open to
the possibility of an improvement. On the negative side, more proofs emerged of US lobbying against Iran. The Turkish Finance Minister openly admitted in
mid-April that the US opposes the extension of the Iran-Turkey gas pipeline to Greece and the EU. While this opposition did not prevent the signing of the
deal, it clearly shows how the Bush administration keeps trying to isolate Iran. During the last month, however, Iranian reactions to US hostility have been
more muted. Former President Rafsanjani, a centrist who in recent months had gone rather wildly rhetorical about the need to confront the US, recognised in
April that there is no ban on bilateral socio-cultural and economic relations, revising his own previous statements. Moreover, after US Secretary of State
Powell requested that Iran acted to restrain the activities of the Hezbollah against Israel, Iranian Foreign Minister Kharrazi, who visited Lebanon in April,
was reported to have asked the Lebanese organisation to "avoid giving Sharon a pretext to open another front". Finally, Iran appeared unwilling to use the
oil embargo threat as a way to intervene in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
One factor probably advising caution to Iranian politicians is the need to prevent a further tightening of American pressure on their country. The lasting
difficulties to reach a settlement with the other Caspian countries for the exploitation of the resources lying under the sea bed could, for example, provide
opportunities for American meddling in regional affairs and entail the risk of alienating a friendly country like Russia. Iranians fear that at the
forthcoming May meeting between Bush and Putin, the latter might be willing to sacrifice his good relations and lucrative deals with Iran, in exchange for a
closer partnership between the two powers. However, fears of Russia abiding by American requests to limit technologically sensitive exports to Iran have been
eased after Moscow and Teheran agreed in April to complete the construction of Bushehr nuclear reactor and expressed the intention to build a second
one.
Good prospects are not enough
The unwillingness of the Iranian government to take an oil embargo into serious consideration owes probably more to its own internal problems than to the
need to avoid international criticism. In April, the Iranian Oil Ministry released the details of the delayswhich are affecting the oil and gas tender plans.
Out of US$36bn of authorised tenders for the period 1997-2001, only US$21bn were held. While these delays were blamed on the supervisory bodies, the effect
has been to cast doubts on the eventual achievement of the government's plans to expand oil and gas production.
If isolated from the need to support a burgeoning population, the prospects for the Iranian oil and gas industry do not appear so dire, despite the delays.
The gas market looks especially promising for Iran, since the South Pars field is expected to start production in autumn 2002 and no other producer seems to
be in a position to meet the rapidly growing international demand for gas. Even Russia is not expected to be able to increase its production levels for at
least 8 years. After the signature of the Iranian-Turkish-Greek deal, which effectively opens the European market to Iranian gas, Iran is also looking to the
eastern markets, most of all India, with which discussions are being held concerning the building of a deep sea pipeline and the export of Iranian gas through
the Qatar-India pipeline project. Iran is also looking to develop a gas liquefaction industry, in cooperation with Shell and MouGas.
The good prospects for the oil industry are however not enough for Iran, which needs to cope with a fast-growing population. The economic reforms, which are
supposed to contribute to stimulating economic development, are still proceeding very slowly. The banking sector, which had been the focus of the reform
efforts in 2001, has seen the opening of the first private bank in December. Since then, however, no other private bank has started its operations, although
two more applications have been approved and are now waiting to qualify for licensing. However, there are signs that, once gone past the early, difficult
stages, the privatisation could take off rapidly. There are over 40 more applications standing and two state bank have volunteered for being privatised. Given
the very inefficient character of the state banking system in Iran, a successful privatisation of this sector could open the door to faster reforms in other
fields.
Reformist push running out of steam
In February and March, the reformists had appeared willing and able to seize the initiative back from the conservatives, who had tried to exploit the
renewed tension with the US to slow the reforms further. They also appeared to rely on an active popular support. Between the second half of March and the
first half of April, however, the popular mobilisation which had supported the reformists vanished and talks of a looming final confrontation between the two
sides suddenly appeared to have been premature. At the same time, the conservatives strengthened their positions within the institutional framework thanks to
the appointment of six new members to the Expediency Council, which is supposed to resolve disputes between the parliament and the Council of Guardians.
Previously a "centrist" body, the Expediency Council, which is led by Rafsanjani, is now shifting to the right, as four of the appointees are known
conservatives and only two reformists.
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AUTOMOBILES
Iranian-German truck production accord signed
Iran Khodro and German Chrysler Daimler Consortium signed an agreement on 22 April 2002 regarding technical cooperation for the manufacturing of new trucks,
IRN has reported.
The capacity of the trucks, which will conform with advanced European standards will range from 8 to 40 tons.
The agreement was signed during an inspection tour at the Chrysler Daimler plant in Stuttgart, Germany by a high-ranking Iranian industrial delegation, headed
by the Industries and Mines Minister, Eshaq Jahangiri.
The trucks will be produced in Iran within three years. In addition to meeting domestic requirements, the trucks will also be exported.
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AVIATION
Iran to take delivery of three Airbuses purchased from France
Iran will take delivery of three Airbus passenger planes, which it has bought from France, during the current Iranian year which ends 20th March 2003, the
press on 14th April cited Transport Minister Ahmad Khorram as saying, Iran Expert has reported.
The aircraft are among 10 Airbuses which the Islamic republic has signed to buy in order to rejuvenate its decrepit and accident-ridden air fleet, they quoted
the minister as saying in Tashkent at the end of his trip to Uzbekistan.
According to Khorram, US$5bn is needed to renovate the Iranian air fleet which has outlived its serviceable life by at least 20 years.
The Civil Aviation Organization (CAO) has received US$1.5bn of this sum, he said, adding further plans were under way to purchase planes from other
builders.
Press in March cited Khorram as saying that an agreement was in the pipeline to buy 20 second-hand Airbus aircraft.
The move, he said, is part of Iran's plans to gradually phase out chartered Russian-made Yakolov and Tupolev aircraft from the country's aviation fleet and
replace them with brand new airliners. "Since leasing Tupolev and Yak aircraft is uneconomical, we are intending to take them gradually out of Iran's aviation
fleet and replace them with new planes in the initial stage," Khorram was cited as saying.
"Later, we will renovate our air fleet by purchasing aircraft less than five years old," he said, adding this will include leasing planes with the aim of
ultimate ownership...
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ENERGY
Iran Drilling Co gets US$350m in contracts so far in '02
The state-owned National Drilling Co. of Iran has signed US$350m worth of contracts with the Iranian Oil Ministry so far in 2002, the Down Jones Newswires has
reported quoting the official Islamic Republic News Agency.
Heidar Bahmani, the company's managing director, said the contracts were for the drilling of 59 wells in Iran 's southern oil fields at a cost of $150m, the
drilling of 35 wells at the Tabnak gas field at a cost of $120m, and $80m worth of well overhaul work.
The company is negotiating with a foreign company over the purchase of more than $10 million in drilling equipment, Bahmani said, without mentioning the
foreign company's name.
The company is also involved in a number of drilling projects in Turkmenistan and Libya , he said.
The National Drilling Co. has undertaken the drilling of 1700 wells, at a cost of $2.5bn, since its establishment two decades ago.
Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar-Zanganeh said Monday his ministry has awarded some $5-$6bn worth of projects to Iranian oil industry companies in the past
few years, enhancing their competitive capabilities.
Zanganeh was speaking on the sidelines of an international oil, gas and petrochemical conference in Tehran .
BP seeks role in Iran LNG exports to India;
BP PLC wants to produce liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Iran and play a role in exports to India, BP'S Iran director David Dalton told newspaper Iran
Daily.
"BP is very interested in investing in Iran and is also very interested in a number of both oil and gas projects," Dalton said, pointing out that BP's role in
Iran has so far been limited to downstream projects.
"On the gas side, we are interested in looking at South Pars and seeing whether we can work to produce liquefied natural gas and export it to India," he said,
referring to the large offshore field shared by Iran and Qatar.
"We have been working in partnership with NIOC (National Iranian Oil Co) and with reliance on India to do a feasibility study on LNG exports," said
Dalton.
He said BP, along with TotalFinaElf and ENI SpA is bidding for contracts in the 11th and 12th phases of the South Pars project, the results of which are due
to be announced soon. Iran, which has the world's second largest gas reserves after Russia, plans to build a gas pipeline for exports to energy-hungry
India
Greek-Turkish cooperation on gas from Iran
Greek Prime Minister Kostas Simitis said the cooperation agreement between Greece and Turkey is under preparation for the construction of a natural gas
pipeline, The Tehran Times has reported.
The pipeline will end up in Alexandroupolis, Northeastern Greece and will allow the natural gas to come to Greece from the region of the Caspian Sea and Iran
via Istanbul.
The statements were made on the sidelines of the Barcelona EU Summit Meeting, Greek media reported.
Simitis said that the issue was discussed in the meeting he had in Athens with Iranian President Khatami last Wednesday and that plans have been made for a
visit of minister of finance Nikos Christodoulakis and minister of development Akis Tsochatzopoulos to Turkey.
Foreign Minister George Papandreou also speaking in Barcelona pointed out that the agreement is of strategic importance for the future of stability in the
region.
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FOREIGN ECONOMIC RELATIONS
British firms in race for Iranian contracts
Several British firms are in the running for multiple contracts, valued at £17.15m, coming up from the development of a coal mine in Iran, it was reported on
the IranExport web site.
Iran has emerged as the fastest growing market for the UK in the Middle East and North Africa, with a 53 per cent increase in exports between January and
November last year.
The mining sector, in particular, is seen as offering good potential to further develop UK interests in Iran, according to a report in Opportunity Middle
East, which is brought out by The Middle East Association in alliance with Trade Partners UK. Recently, Cementation Skanska won a £10.85m subcontract as part
of a £102m project to develop a coal mine in Tabas. It will be Iran's first mechanised underground mine and is expected to produce 1.5 million tonnes of
coking coal for steel production annually.
Incidentally, this is the first project supported by the Export Credits Guarantee Department (ECGD) since the resumption of medium-term insurance cover for
Iran.
ECGD is offering £28m in reinsurance cover for British goods and services, including the contract won by Cementation Skanska, which involves a range of
specialist mining services.
The company is currently assisting the main contractor in evaluating bids for different parts of the project, finalising the design and tendering for
equipment and services.
"The project has been a target for Cementation Skanska over 10 years, and the reintroduction of ECGD medium-term cover for Iran has been instrumental in
helping us to secure this contract," said Stewart Keeble, managing director.
Iran-Afghanistan council of traders to be established soon
During the first joint Iran-Afghanistan trade exhibition, a council of traders
from Sistan-Baluchestan province of Iran and Afghanistan will be established, it was announced, IRNA News Agency has reported.
Mohammad Reza Ehsanfar, head of Zahedan's Chamber of Commerce, Industries and Mines told reporters that establishment of the two countries joint chamber of
commerce in Tehran and expansion of bilateral trade exchanges are among the objectives of the council.
Some 300 industrial units from several Iranian provinces will take part in the first joint trade exhibition to start in this southeastern provincial capital
city on Saturday, April 20th, he said adding that presence of such a great number of Iranian companies in the exhibition is an indication of the willingness
of the Iranian businessmen to be present on Afghan markets.
He referred to Sistan-Baluchestan province as the shortest and most appropriate access route for Afghanistan and Central Asian markets to the international
waters. Meanwhile head of the first Iran-Afghanistan trade exhibition told IRNA that in addition to the officials of the Afghan interim government, some
500 Afghan businessmen have been invited to participate in the exhibition.
Nader Mishkar said that the first group of the Afghan traders willing to attend the Zahedan exhibition are to arrive in Iran today. In the course of the
exhibition, the Afghan businessmen will become familiar with Iran's economic, trade and industrial
potentials, he said adding that the exhibition will pave the way for Iranian and Afghan companies and businessmen to sing trade contracts.
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TRANSPORT
Iran-Uzbekistan-Afghanistan plan joint highway
Iran, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan are to begin talks on plans to construct a highway linking the three nations, the transport ministry said, IranMania.com has
reported.
The 1,010 kilometre (630-mile) highway is to go from Iran's northeastern border at Dogharoun to Uzebekistan's city of Termez across northwestern
Afghanistan.
It will aid in the reconstruction of Afghanistan, and aim "to activate regional cooperation and to promote exchanges between Iran and Uzbekistan", which have
been decreasing in recent years and were worth only US$135m in 2001.
The project is a scheme of the Economic Cooperation Organisation (ECO), grouping Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, Afghanistan and the Central Asian countries of the
former Soviet Union.
In March the first railroad between Almaty and Tehran was opened, financially backed by ECO.
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