Calamity Corps
We make a plea for a UN quick-response civil disaster
agency, using the armed services of participating nations. We
argue that there is a probability that over the years ahead
many, perhaps most, of the armed forces personnel in
democracies, may never hear a shot fired in anger, yet there are
many civil crises globally when only military teams can
do what needs to be done. Our PAKISTAN report illustrates the
horrifying calamity scenario in that unfortunate nation.
North Korea
We anticipate that the succession to the leadership
of ‘the hermit nation,’ the smallest and most belligerent
member of the world’s nine nuclear-armed powers, will shortly
be revealed.
Philippines
Early in the reform administration of newly elected
President Aquino, comes a savage reminder of the levels of
violence in this Pacific nation and the challenge that he
confronts.
Taiwan
It appears that China is achieving peacefully what it could
not do militarily, in bringing the island republic under its
control. The Economic Framework Co-operation Agreement (EFCA)
in our reading, combined with a KMT government does give
economic control to Beijing. After that, political
re-unification becomes less urgent for China, and may be
expected to follow in due course.
Syria and Iraq
IRAN, TURKEY, SAUDI ARABIA all neighbours of
IRAQ, as well as the USA seek to influence the future
of events there. As well as updating the Iraqi political
picture in the wake of US troop withdrawals, we describe how
SYRIA, the only secular state in the
neighbourhood and hosting some hundreds of thousands of Iraqi
refugees, is particularly well placed to influence events in
IRAQ.
South Africa: Worm in the Apple
We greatly admired South Africa’s staging of the world cup – a
triumph given the doomsayers predictions, but within weeks a
wave of strikes (of a particularly ugly nature), threatens to
undo the favourable image earned, as strikers target doctors
and nurses for not deserting their
patients. Other stories emerge
of President Zuma’s nephew, not a known commercial ‘player’
before this presidency, acquiring corporate assets, receiving
directorships and partnerships, being awarded mining
concessions and oil exploration rights. We see
the once admirable ANC which campaigned for so long to achieve
final success, has now become a political monolith contiguous
with the state, rather than a political party of government,
with its funding remaining a closed book, but suspected of
being financed by kick-backs from deals done at government
level.
Dr David Kelly: his death and the
consequences
The UK is a nation that glories in its loyalty to the
rule of law. Hence we add our voice to the calls for a
coroner’s inquest on this violent death, which had been
subsumed by a government appointed political enquiry. It just
won’t do when the government itself, or its agencies or
allies, are themselves leading 'suspects', to put such an
issue on a political level, rather than through the due
process of law.
Russia’s second tier of leadership and
Mayor Luzkhov
We look at how the leaders of Russia’s 89 component
republics and territories are chosen, and how one in
particular, the highly successful Mayor of Moscow might be
moving on.
Iran; Opposition to Ahmadinejad from
the Right
Certain it is that things have not settled down since the
presidential election.
Unhappy Afghanistan
There is now much informed comment on engaging with
the Taleban off the battlefield to seek a political solution.
We ask in terms of a settlement, what about the Northern
Alliance of Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazara whom the west then
supported and who won their brutal civil war? Afghanistan is
about religious sectarianism but also tribalism - the nation
is a miscellany of different tribes with the Taleban mainly
being from the numerous Pashtun - and tribalism is more
meaningful than nationalism, still a frail concept.
Croatia, Serbia, Bosnia, Bulgaria,
Romania
We have Updates of these Balkan and SE European states.
The ‘Stans of Central Asia
KYRGYZSTAN is to hold elections on 10th September
which some say will be the freest yet. Also Updates from
UZBEKISTAN, KAZAKHSTAN and from
TURKMENISTAN, now emerging as one of the energy
giants of all time.
Russia, Ukraine, Armenia and Georgia
In our last issue we described Russia attaining its foreign
policy objective of consolidating its ‘Greater Russia’
influence in its non-Moslem near-abroad. How these nations fit
emerges from their Updates. GEORGIA presently
does not fit, but ARMENIA certainly does and
UKRAINE’s new government is a reward for
Moscow’s patience.
Turkey &Azerbaijan
Allies since the times of Tsars and Sultans, nevertheless
RUSSIA whilst supporting ARMENIA
does not want to completely lose former Soviet
AZERBAIJAN to the west.
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